2009 N.L. Starting Pitchers

Onward we go, moving from my 2009 wrap-ups of hitters to pitchers.

The only change I'm making in the charts is that I'm using 5x5 values for the 2008 column as well as for 2009. This gives us a better idea of how each pitcher listed below did from year to year. The drawback to this approach is that it makes the data from last year's charts look inconsistent.

Ten Most Expensive N.L. Starting Pitchers 2009

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	AP	SW	'08 (5x5)
1	Tim Lincecum	$38	$34	+4	$30	$31	$37
2	Johan Santana	$21	$34	-13	$34	$36	$34
3	Cole Hamels	$13	$30	-17	$30	$29	$32
4	Brandon Webb	-$1	$30	-31	$30	$28	$30
5	Dan Haren	$33	$27	+6	$27	$25	$30
6	Jake Peavy	$10	$26	-16	$30	$26	$24
7	Roy Oswalt	$13	$23	-10	$24	$19	$26
8	Javier Vazquez	$35	$22	+13	$14	$16	$16
9	Chad Billingsley	$16	$21	-6	$18	$21	$24
10	Yovani Gallardo	$19	$20	-1	$14	$17	$3
	Average	$20	$27	-7	$25	$25	$26

In actuality, the 10 most expensive pitchers in 2008 earned $22 per pitcher in 5x5 (as opposed to the $21 they earned in 4x4). It's a small difference, but it matters. As a result, 2009's most expensive pitchers were definitely all over the place compared to 2008.

Ten Most Expensive N.L. Starting Pitchers 2008

(converted to 5x5 $ for '08)

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	AP	SW	'07
1	Johan Santana	$34	$40	-6	$37	$41	$33
2	Jake Peavy	$24	$33	-10	$34	$32	$43
3	Brandon Webb	$30	$29	+1	$32	$25	$33
4	Dan Haren	$30	$25	+5	$22	$20	$29
5	Cole Hamels	$32	$24	+7	$29	$24	$27
6	Roy Oswalt	$26	$24	+2	$25	$18	$21
7 (tie)	Aaron Harang	$8	$21	-13	$28	$20	$27
	Carlos Zambrano	$17	$21	-4	$24	$22	$18
9 (tie)	Chris Young	$10	$20	-10	$23	$21	$24
	John Smoltz	$5	$20	-15	$20	$22	$27
	Average	$22	$26	-4	$27	$25	$28

Fifteen starting pitchers cracked $20 in 5x5 in 2008 and the top six pitchers on this list all fit that description. By point of comparison, 14 pitchers earned $20 or more in 2009 and only four were also among the 10 most expensive.

But the surprise in the 2009 chart isn't the earnings; it is the fluctuation across the board.

2008's crop was pretty reliable at the top. Even if you got stuck with Peavy, you still got a $20+ pitcher. If you cracked $26 last year, you only had a 50-50 chance of getting a $20+ pitcher back.

For all of this relative unpredictability, this group had more $20+ starters than any other group of 10 pitchers.

Top Ten N.L. Starting Pitchers 2009

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	AP	SW	'08 (5x5)
1	Tim Lincecum	$38	$34	+4	$30	$31	$37
2	Javier Vazquez	$35	$22	+13	$14	$16	$16
3	Dan Haren	$33	$27	+6	$27	$25	$30
4	Chris Carpenter	$33	$8	+25	$11	$11	$2
5	Adam Wainwright	$32	$18	+14	$15	$16	$17
6	Josh Johnson	$26	$17	+9	$17	$13	$9
7	Matt Cain	$26	$17	+9	$14	$18	$16
8	Jair Jurrjens	$26	$11	+15	$11	$8	$16
9	Ted Lilly	$25	$15	+9	$16	$15	$22
10	Wandy Rodriguez	$25	$9	+16	$8	$5	$15
	Average	$30	$18	+12	$16	$16	$18

Once again, this is a chart that isn't the best of news for the bottom feeders.

You had to spend at least $8 to even have a chance at a Top 10 starter last year, and most of these starters went for $15 or more. Fifteen dollars sounds like a great way to buy an ace, but that's nothing but hindsight talking; if you spent your money like a lot of teams do, that's a good 18% chunk of your pitching budget wrapped up in a pitcher who may or may not pitch like an ace.

The market wasn't quite as generous with these pitchers as they were with the most expensive ones, but on the whole they did manage to break even on these pitchers. Patton and Sports Weekly either couldn't or wouldn't keep up. In a three-way battle with the market, Patton only buys Lilly outright. SW grabbed Cain. Patton and SW tied the market or each other on Haren, Carpenter, Johnson and Jurrjens, which means that the market bought Lincecum, Vazquez, Wainwright and Rodriguez outright.

Adding the expensive pitchers that didn't pay off, Patton bought Peavy and Oswalt and tied the market on Hamels and Webb. SW got Santana and tied on Billingsley.

Before compiling these charts, I had assumed that the market was going to slow down when it came to pitchers. But that doesn't seem to be the case.

To be sure, Patton and SW are both offering a little more play money for some of the best expected pitchers than for some of the best expected hitters. But they're still falling short.

Will Patton and SW open their purse strings? If so, what's left for them to buy?

2009 N.L. Outfielders

Last year, the best outfielders became a little more unpredictable.

Top 10 N.L. Outfielders 2009

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	AP	SW	'08
1	Ryan Braun	$40	$41	-1	$30	$35	$33
2	Matt Kemp	$37	$35	+2	$31	$26	$33
3	Michael Bourn	$33	$9	+24	$16	$14	$16
4	Jayson Werth	$31	$20	+10	$19	$15	$25
5	Justin Upton	$30	$17	+13	$16	$21	$8
6	Nyjer Morgan	$27	$4	+24	$5	$4	$6
7	Shane Victorino	$26	$28	-1	$25	$22	$30
8	Carlos Lee	$26	$32	-7	$27	$28	$29
9	Andre Ethier	$25	$24	+1	$22	$18	$24
10	Raul Ibanez	$25	$21	+4	$20	$21	$27
	Average	$30	$23	+7	$21	$20	$23

But only a little. The 10 best outfielders in 2008 earned 23% more than what they were paid (32/26) while last year's outfielders were 30% better.

Part of that is the unpredictability of speed and owners not wanting to pay for said speed. This is one area where the touts were more aggressive than the market; Patton's two wins here are on Bourn and Morgan. The market seemed afraid that Bourn would simply disappear.

Another reason these hitters are cheaper is that it seems like there weren't as much $30+ buys (3) as there were in 2008 (5). Was the market indeed a little stingier when it came to the OF in 2009?

Ten Most Expensive N.L. Outfielders 2009

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	AP	SW	'08
1	Ryan Braun	$40	$41	-1	$30	$35	$33
2	Carlos Beltran	$18	$35	-17	$30	$30	$35
3	Matt Kemp	$37	$35	+2	$31	$26	$33
4	Alfonso Soriano	$14	$33	-19	$27	$30	$28
5	Carlos Lee	$26	$32	-7	$27	$28	$29
6	Manny Ramirez	$16	$31	-14	$27	$30	$39
7	Nate McLouth	$22	$29	-8	$30	$23	$30
8	Shane Victorino	$26	$28	-1	$25	$22	$30
9	Corey Hart	$14	$26	-11	$25	$24	$26
10	Hunter Pence	$24	$25	-1	$24	$23	$22
	Average	$24	$32	-8	$28	$27	$31

No, they were not. Both groups of outfielders earned $31 per player the prior year, but the 2009 OF managed to work out a $1 per player raise from the market.

Both Patton and Sports Weekly took a dimmer view of this group and - as a result - almost get shut out in a three-way battle against the market. Patton buys McLouth while Sports Weekly gets shut out entirely.

Unlike last year, there are a decent amount of double-digit losers, while Kemp is the only OF here that turns a profit. The result is that these hitters only return 75 cents on the dollar (compared to the 87 cents on the dollar the 2008 Cadillacs gave back to their owners. Would you have been better off holding the line like Patton and Sports Weekly did and waiting?

Next Ten Most Expensive (11-20) N.L. Outfielders 2009

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	AP	SW	'08
11	Andre Ethier	$25	$24	+1	$22	$18	$24
12	Jay Bruce	$11	$23	-12	$17	$21	$13
13	Chris Young	$9	$23	-14	$19	$20	$19
14	Brad Hawpe	$21	$22	-1	$22	$18	$21
15	Ryan Ludwick	$19	$22	-3	$23	$18	$32
16	Raul Ibanez	$25	$21	+4	$20	$21	$27
17	Jayson Werth	$31	$20	+10	$19	$15	$25
18	Adam Dunn	$24	$20	+4	$22	$20	$21
19	Lastings Milledge	$7	$18	-11	$21	$20	$21
20	Justin Upton	$30	$17	+13	$16	$21	$8
	Average	$20	$21	-1	$20	$19	$21

This group of outfielders earns $4 less per player but also costs $11 less. They nearly offer a 1:1 return per player, so it's hard to argue that these guys aren't the better group of hitters to be chasing.

Patton and Sports Weekly close in on the market here but still lag behind. Patton ties the market on Hawpe and gets Ludwick, Dunn, and Milledge. SW ties on Ibanez and makes an aggressively great call on Upton. The market gets Ethier, Bruce, Young, and Werth outright.

The National League OF seem to fall into a similar pattern with their A.L. counterparts. The bottom five OF in this bracket (16-20) are generally a more success oriented sort than the OF at the top (11-15). They earn $23 per player while costing $19 apiece; even with Milledge included in their number, there seems to be a trend in both leagues that rewards patience and punishes the big spenders.

Or does there?

Next Ten Most Expensive (21-30) N.L. Outfielders 2009

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	AP	SW	'08
21	Milton Bradley	$10	$16	-6	$17	$15	$26
22	Elijah Dukes	$9	$16	-7	$12	$14	$14
23	Rick Ankiel	$7	$16	-9	$16	$16	$17
24	Willy Taveras	$11	$15	-5	$24	$18	$29
25	Randy Winn	$13	$14	-1	$18	$13	$27
26	Fred Lewis	$8	$14	-6	$21	$8	$18
27	Mike Cameron	$17	$13	+4	$15	$14	$20
28	Cody Ross	$20	$12	+9	$14	$6	$17
29	Jeremy Hermida	$11	$12	-1	$14	$12	$12
30	Ryan Spilborghs	$10	$12	-1	$14	$9	$12
	Average	$12	$14	-2	$17	$13	$19

While there aren't any double-digit losers on this chart, this can't make any of you Stage Three penny-pinchers out there happy. Not all $7 losses are created equal; while McLouth's $22 season returns 76 cents on the dollar, Dukes' $9 season only returns 56 cents.

If there is any upside here, it is that owners who spend their money here got something back. There aren't any $15 buys who earned $0-3 and provided nothing or next to nothing for their owners. I realize that is of small comfort to the owners who bought Dukes, Ankiel or Lewis, but it is something.

After looking at chart after chart, we've finally found the place where Patton wants to spend his money.

He blows the market away - spending an average of $3 per player more than they do on this crop. In a three-way battle with the market and SW he cleans up, getting Bradley, Taveras, Winn, Lewis, Cameron, Ross, Hermida, and Spilborghs. The market gets Dukes and all three tie on Ankiel.

This is the first time that Patton has beaten the market on price; he hasn't even been coming within a $1 per player anywhere else. In a real world auction environment, Patton winds up with a solid $80-100 OF and a lot of scrambling to fill in everywhere else.

SW, meanwhile, is either going to be way out in front on pitchers or will have left a ton of money on the table for the second year in a row.

Most Expensive N.L. Hitters by Position 2009

Position	$	Sal	AP	SW
Catcher	$1oo	$155	$142	$135
First Base	$243	$284	$257	$227
Second Base	$165	$184	$156	$155
Shortstop	$201	$257	$232	$228
Third Base	$184	$217	$204	$191
Outfield #1	$237	$315	$276	$271
Outfield #2	$202	$210	$201	$192
Outfield #3	$116	$140	$165	$125
Totals	$1448	$1762	$1633	$1524

Wow. Throughout this entire series, I've been wondering what Patton and SW have been doing. Maybe I should have spent more time wondering about the market.

You can't expect the most expensive bets to match their earnings from last year, so from that standpoint the market can't be blamed for overspending and getting burned. But overshooting the mark by over $300 - or $3.92 per player - seems like a lot.

Another way of looking at this is that there are still $827 worth of stats to grab and the market about $513 to spend.

Of course, this assumes that they'll spend $175 per team.

Spending by N.L. Expert League, 2009

League	Hitter $	Pit $	% Hit
CBS (12 team)	$2097	$1021	67%
LABR	$2299	$1080	68%
Tout Wars	$2302	$1071	68%
Totals	$6698	$3172	68%
Recommended	$2275	$1105	67%

They almost are, exactly. CBS is the only 12-team league here; they actually fall $3 short of Patton's hitting/pitching formula split. LABR goes $24 over while Tout Wars goes $27 over.

This doesn't explain away a $300+ gap. Regardless of the results on a player-by-player basis, I like Patton's approach. Wait until prices come down into the high teens/low twenties and start buying. The market has been overspending at the top for two years running; if your league mirrors the market, you will get some bargains eventually.

2009 N.L. Third Basemen

The earnings below make the group of 3B below look predictable, but the results player by player make them anything but.

Top 10 N.L. Third Basemen 2009

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	AP	SW	2008
1	Mark Reynolds	$33	$14	+19	$14	$15	$20
2	Ryan Zimmerman	$29	$22	+7	$18	$22	$13
3	David Wright	$28	$45	-17	$35	$39	$38
4	Jorge Cantu	$21	$15	+6	$21	$15	$25
5	Casey Blake	$19	$12	+7	$14	$8	$19
6	Chipper Jones	$17	$24	-7	$25	$20	$30
7	Aramis Ramirez	$17	$30	-13	$25	$23	$26
8	Casey McGehee	$16			$1		-$0
9	Martin Prado	$16	$2	+14	$3	$2	$9
10	Ian Stewart	$15	$10	+5	$5	$11	$8
	Average	$21	$19	+2	$18	$17	$19

Of the nine players auctioned on this list (the three expert leagues understandably passed on McGehee), not a single player comes within $4 of his market price. This is the polar opposite of the N.L. first basemen, where seven out of 10 players came within $5 of earning what they were paid.

From this standpoint, the touts do a little bit better. Patton's bid turns out to be a most excellent prediction for Cantu, while Sports Weekly's dim view of Chipper works out nicely, and their upbeat stance on Stewart was decent. If we were scoring 2008, they'd get props for hitting Casey Blake on the nose.

The market once again spends the most money per player here, but on a player-by-player basis, they're suddenly getting beat by Patton and SW quite a bit. Patton gets Cantu, Blake, Jones, McGehee, and Prado, while SW gets Reynolds and Stewart. The market only wins outright on Wright and Ramirez, while tying SW on Zimmerman.

This chart is a pretty good view into the how the tout leagues seem to be inching back toward Stage One. Wright's $7 raise and Ramirez's $4 raise aren't so much an expectation of career years but rather a fear of mediocre ones from some of the other players on this chart. This is what you're supposed to see when the top players get big raises...pay cuts elsewhere. Reynolds, Cantu, Blake and Jones all take some pretty big cuts so that Wright and Ramirez can get paid. The result is that someone walked away with some pretty good bargains while someone else got stuck holding the bag on David Wright.

Ten Most Expensive N.L. Third Basemen 2009

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	AP	SW	2008
1	David Wright	$28	$45	-17	$35	$39	$38
2	Aramis Ramirez	$17	$30	-13	$25	$23	$26
3	Chipper Jones	$17	$24	-7	$25	$20	$30
4	Ryan Zimmerman	$29	$22	+7	$18	$22	$13
5	Garrett Atkins	$5	$22	-17	$22	$22	$22
6	Edwin Encarnacion	$1	$18	-16	$15	$16	$14
7	Jorge Cantu	$21	$15	+6	$21	$15	$25
8	Kevin Kouzmanoff	$14	$15	-1	$15	$11	$15
9	Mark Reynolds	$33	$14	+19	$14	$15	$20
10	Casey Blake	$19	$12	+7	$14	$8	$19
	Average	$18	$22	-3	$20	$19	$22

Reynolds saves this group from being a total disaster, but even with him only four of the 10 hitters here turn a profit.

Three of the four new hitters here - Atkins, Encarnacion, and Zimmerman - had down years in 2008. The market gives Zimmerman and Encarnacion raises in the hopes that they'll bounce back while holding the line on Atkins.

I'm intrigued by the fact that only Zimmerman's raise works out. Wright, Ramirez, and Encarnacion all burned their owners to varying degrees. Meanwhile, the pay cuts were sometimes justified (Chipper and Cantu) and sometimes not (Reynolds and Blake). If you simply followed 2008's lead, you would have avoided Encarnacion and scored big on Reynolds and Blake.

Of course, that's a mixed bag, too, as you would have been way off on Zimmerman and left holding the bag on Chipper.

2009 N.L. Shortstops

Throughout this series, I have been presenting the best players at each position followed by the most expensive ones.

But if I learning anything in the handful of journalism classes I took in college, it's that you should never bury the lead.

Ten Most Expensive N.L. Shortstops 2009

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	AP	SW	2008
1	Hanley Ramirez	$41	$46	-5	$43	$41	$39
2	Jose Reyes	$7	$44	-37	$38	$40	$42
3	Jimmy Rollins	$26	$38	-12	$32	$33	$31
4	Stephen Drew	$14	$24	-10	$20	$19	$20
5	Rafael Furcal	$17	$23	-6	$23	$23	$11
6	Troy Tulowitzki	$33	$21	+12	$20	$21	$7
7	J.J. Hardy	$6	$20	-14	$18	$15	$20
8	Ryan Theriot	$21	$15	+6	$14	$12	$20
9	Cristian Guzman	$14	$13	+1	$14	$9	$20
10	Yunel Escobar	$22	$13	+9	$10	$15	$14
	Average	$20	$26	-6	$23	$23	$22

This is the third year I've been compiling these charts, and Jose Reyes' $37 loss is the biggest loss a player has taken by a good $10 (Andruw Jones took a $27 bath last year).

Without Reyes, the market pays $24 per player for these hitters and they earn $22. Still a loss, but a decent rate of return for your $24. It's an especially solid rate of return when you consider that the market is pushing hard for these guys.

Most Expensive N.L. Hitters: Earnings vs. Cost 2009

Position	Sal	2008	+/-
Catcher	$16	$16	0
First Base	$28	$28	0
Second Base	$18	$17	+1
Shortstop	$26	$22	+3

The $3 raise per player blows away anything else we've seen in the National League so far. A large chunk of this is people betting on bounce back seasons for Tulo and Furcal. But notice that there's definitely a hard push for who the top hitters are perceived to be, while the money comes from the shortstops from #8 on down. Escobar takes a slight pay-cut, while Guzman and Theriot get robbed.

I don't believe that the market really believes that Guzman and Theriot are necessarily going to be that much worse, but they probably do believe that what they earned in 2008 is a ceiling, and they don't want to pay for a $20 ceiling on a guy who could earn half that or less. Meanwhile, paying $38 or more on the three Rs has nothing to do with the ceiling. Their owners want stats and are willing to pay a premium for those stats.

The question I always ask is: was it right to pay that premium?

Top 10 N.L. Shortstops 2009

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	AP	SW	2008
1	Hanley Ramirez	$41	$46	-5	$43	$41	$39
2	Troy Tulowitzki	$33	$21	+12	$20	$21	$7
3	Jimmy Rollins	$26	$38	-12	$32	$33	$31
4	Miguel Tejada	$25	$12	+13	$19	$18	$17
5	Yunel Escobar	$22	$13	+9	$10	$15	$14
6	Ryan Theriot	$21	$15	+6	$14	$12	$20
7	Rafael Furcal	$17	$23	-6	$23	$23	$11
8	Brendan Ryan	$14	$2	+13	$2		$2
9	Cristian Guzman	$14	$13	+1	$14	$9	$20
10	Stephen Drew	$14	$24	-10	$20	$19	$20
	Average	$23	$21	+2	$20	$19	$18

In terms of reliability, yes. Ryan and Tejada crack this list, but eight out of the 10 players from the most expensive chart also happened to make the Top 10.

Patton and Sports Weekly's aggressive bids on Tejada (great call, Alex) push the touts closer to the market's average salary, but Patton and SW are still being timid on all of these groupings of hitters. Of the 12 hitters listed in these two charts, Patton gets Tejada and Guzman and SW gets Escobar. Patton ties on Ryan, SW on Tulo, and both touts tie on Furcal.

The market grabs everyone else.

I raved about reliable the N.L. first basemen were this year, but the best shortstops earned $23 per player and with the exception of Ryan didn't come out of left field. I'd probably keep paying these guys until they prove they can't do it anymore; this position is starting to look a pretty stable place to invest your dough.