But, for third basemen, it seems like the market came back with a vengeance.
Top 10 N.L. Third Basemen 2008
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | 2007 |
| 1 | David Wright | $38 | $43 | -6 | $38 | $39 | $46 |
| 2 | Chipper Jones | $30 | $27 | +3 | $24 | $20 | $34 |
| 3 | Aramis Ramirez | $26 | $27 | -1 | $28 | $24 | $26 |
| 4 | Jorge Cantu | $25 | $3 | +22 | $9 | $1 | $1 |
| 5 | Garrett Atkins | $22 | $30 | -8 | $31 | $24 | $27 |
| 6 | Troy Glaus | $21 | $12 | +9 | $11 | $13 | $13 |
| 7 | Mark Reynolds | $20 | $14 | +7 | $15 | $3 | $13 |
| 8 | Ty Wigginton | $18 | $13 | +5 | $11 | $9 | $17 |
| 9 | Kevin Kouzmanoff | $15 | $17 | -2 | $17 | $13 | $15 |
| 10 | Edwin Encarnacion | $14 | $19 | -5 | $17 | $18 | $20 |
| Average | $23 | $21 | +2 | $19 | $16 | $21 |
I should probably look at the scorecard by position thus far.
Most Expensive N.L. Hitters by Position, 2008
| Position | $ | Sal | AP | SW | 2007 |
| Catcher | $111 | $115 | $90 | $99 | $109 |
| First Base | $258 | $285 | $270 | $249 | $264 |
| Second Base | $174 | $201 | $192 | $180 | $206 |
| Shortstop | $204 | $250 | $247 | $254 | $257 |
| Total | $747 | $851 | $799 | $782 | $836 |
The market's still bidding more aggressively than the predictions here, but this isn't nearly the chasm it was in the A.L., where Patton was $113 in the hole to the market for a mere 42 players...or an incredible $2.69 per player. A $52 gap means that Alex can still rally elsewhere without me worrying about whether or not he's going to spend his dough.
But here, it looks like Alex might once again be in danger of losing ground. He's down by about $2 per player on this group. However, in the three-way pricing battle with the tout market and Sports Weekly, he buys Ramirez, Cantu, Atkins, Reynolds, and his share of Kouzmanoff. Sports Weekly gets only Glaus, while the market grabs everyone else.
It doesn't look better for Sports Weekly when you look at the most expensive third basemen instead.
Ten Most Expensive N.L. Third Basemen 2008
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | 2007 |
| 1 | David Wright | $38 | $43 | -6 | $38 | $39 | $46 |
| 2 | Garrett Atkins | $22 | $30 | -8 | $31 | $24 | $27 |
| 3 | Chipper Jones | $30 | $27 | +3 | $24 | $20 | $34 |
| 4 | Aramis Ramirez | $26 | $27 | -1 | $28 | $24 | $26 |
| 5 | Ryan Zimmerman | $13 | $26 | -14 | $28 | $22 | $19 |
| 6 | Edwin Encarnacion | $14 | $19 | -5 | $17 | $18 | $20 |
| 7 | Kevin Kouzmanoff | $15 | $17 | -2 | $17 | $13 | $15 |
| 8 | Mark Reynolds | $20 | $14 | +7 | $15 | $3 | $13 |
| 9 | Ty Wigginton | $18 | $13 | +5 | $11 | $9 | $17 |
| 10 | Bill Hall | $8 | $13 | -5 | $14 | $12 | $11 |
| Average | $20 | $23 | -3 | $22 | $18 | $23 |
Cantu and Glaus are replaced by Zimmerman and Hall, and Patton grabs both of these bums.
The problem for Sports Weekly, though, is that they've undershot the market on both corners of the diamond. They were $4 per player below the market on the 10 most expensive 1B, and here they're $5 below the market per player, getting shut out on all of the 20 most expensive 1B except for Albert Pujols.
I should take a step back and explain why it's important that Sports Weekly "buy" more of these players. Because you could look at the chart above, notice that these guys lose $3 per player, and make the valid point that Sports Weekly has the right idea. Buy Pujols, buy Glaus, spend $1 on a scrub, and spend your money in the outfield.
In this hypothetical pricing battle, though, you're not up against 11 or 12 other owners in an auction. Instead, you're in a three-way battle. For every 15 players I'm listing here, each expert should "buy" about five players, as they're working with $3380 (for a 13-team National League), not $260 (as you typically are in your auctions).
How does this apply to you?
Let's pretend that it's March 31, 2008 and you were using the Sports Weekly prices. For the sake of argument, let's assume one other owner is using the "market" prices, another owner is using Patton, and 12 other owners are all using different pricing methodologies.
In this case, you might not get Pujols or Glaus. Owner A might have a price on his sheet of $39 for Pujols and push him to $37, while Owner B might have Glaus listed at $15.
Suddenly, the owner using Sports Weekly doesn't own a corner infielder after 20 of the most expensive ones have gone off the board.
What happens then?
Next Most Expensive N.L. Corner Infielders (21-30) 2008
| Rank | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | 2007 |
| 21 | Adam LaRoche | $19 | $17 | +1 | $15 | $14 | $17 |
| 22 | Conor Jackson | $22 | $14 | +7 | $14 | $16 | $14 |
| 23 | Mike Jacobs | $19 | $13 | +6 | $9 | $8 | $11 |
| 24 | Joey Votto | $25 | $12 | +13 | $14 | $7 | $5 |
| 25 | Troy Glaus | $21 | $12 | +9 | $11 | $13 | $13 |
| 26 | Pedro Feliz | $9 | $11 | -2 | $12 | $11 | $12 |
| 27 | Dmitri Young | $3 | $9 | -6 | $7 | $4 | $19 |
| 28 | Jose Bautista | $7 | $7 | 0 | $8 | $8 | $11 |
| 29 | Andy LaRoche | -$3 | $6 | -9 | R1 | $2 | $1 |
| 30 | Chad Tracy | $7 | $5 | +2 | $7 | $11 | $6 |
| Average | $13 | $11 | +3 | $10 | $9 | $11 |
Patton buys Votto, Feliz, and his share of Bautista; Sports Weekly gets Jackson, Glaus, its share of Bautista, and Tracy, while the market snatches up both LaRoches, Jacobs and Young.
What really jumps out at me, though, are the average prices at the bottom of this chart.
Since the market is out in front of Patton and Sports Weekly on the most expensive players, you would expect both touts to be spending more here in the middle.
But they're not. They're running behind the market in this batch of players, too.
That's an even bigger problem.
You can, in theory, pass on all of the elite players, try to spend $15-20 on your best players, and work the margins for bargains. That's classic Stage Three market manipulation. Whether it works or not, is another story.
But you can't shrink from the players at the top and these players in the middle. You have to buy someone.
Years ago, in one of his books, Patton had remarked about John Benson that he was shortchanging the hitters at the top, the ones in the middle, and the ones on the bottom. The result, he noted was the same. To paraphrase, you can distribute your money between the top, middle, and bottom players differently, but you have to spend it somehow. Otherwise, "it's the same Stage Three hell, except that when it's all over you're going to have $55 left to go spend in a bar."
If you're using Alex or Sports Weekly's prices, your hope is that you're not being advised to leave too much money on the table. Because you can't take it with you.
So far, though, it looks like that's exactly what's happening here.
No comments:
Post a Comment