Top 10 N.L. Outfielders 2008
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | '07 |
| 1 | Matt Holliday | $38 | $39 | -0 | $38 | $38 | $45 |
| 2 | Carlos Beltran | $35 | $31 | +4 | $34 | $30 | $34 |
| 3 | Ryan Braun | $33 | $37 | -3 | $29 | $37 | $26 |
| 4 | Matt Kemp | $33 | $27 | +6 | $21 | $22 | $19 |
| 5 | Ryan Ludwick | $32 | $3 | +29 | $6 | $3 | $12 |
| 6 | Nate McLouth | $30 | $13 | +17 | $14 | $11 | $16 |
| 7 | Shane Victorino | $30 | $25 | +6 | $23 | $20 | $25 |
| 8 | Willy Taveras | $29 | $19 | +10 | $19 | $20 | $22 |
| 9 | Carlos Lee | $29 | $31 | -3 | $33 | $28 | $34 |
| 10 | Alfonso Soriano | $28 | $34 | -6 | $32 | $34 | $32 |
| Average | $32 | $26 | +6 | $25 | $24 | $27 |
But he still didn't match the market.
I don't know if $26 is some kind of magic number, but that's what both LABR and Tout Wars spent in 2007 on the best outfielders that year.
Patton huffs and puffs in an effort to catch the market in 2008, but still misses by about $1 per player. In a three-way battle with Sports Weekly and the tout market, he grabs Beltran, Ludwick, McLouth, and Lee. SW ties the market on Braun and Soriano and grabs Taveras. The market gets Holliday, Kemp, and Victorino outright.
This is an expensive group of hitters, but that's because it's a predictable group. Six out of the 10 outfielders here are not only the best outfielders but the most expensive as well. Victorino just misses making this list, so he's hardly a bargain. That leaves Taveras and McLouth as bargains with one stab-in-the-dark bargain in Ludwick thrown in for good measure.
When you look at the most expensive group of outfielders, the predictably is emphasized even more.
Ten Most Expensive N.L. Outfielders 2008
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | '07 |
| 1 | Matt Holliday | $38 | $39 | -0 | $38 | $38 | $45 |
| 2 | Ryan Braun | $33 | $37 | -3 | $29 | $37 | $26 |
| 3 | Alfonso Soriano | $28 | $34 | -6 | $32 | $34 | $32 |
| 4 | Carlos Lee | $29 | $31 | -3 | $33 | $28 | $34 |
| 5 | Carlos Beltran | $35 | $31 | +4 | $34 | $30 | $34 |
| 6 | Chris Young | $19 | $29 | -10 | $24 | $23 | $24 |
| 7 | Hunter Pence | $22 | $28 | -6 | $28 | $25 | $25 |
| 8 | Corey Hart | $26 | $28 | -2 | $26 | $25 | $30 |
| 9 (tie) | Eric Byrnes | $2 | $27 | -25 | $25 | $27 | $39 |
| Matt Kemp | $33 | $27 | +6 | $21 | $22 | $19 | |
| Average | $27 | $31 | -5 | $29 | $29 | $31 |
Byrnes is the only hitter who completely disappoints. Overall, the return here is tremendous. Seven out of 10 of the most expensive hitters earn $25 or more. To put that in perspective, only 29 hitters in the National League matched or topped that barrier in 2008. This is a solid place to put your money on the whole (sorry, Eric Byrnes buyers).
These hitters return 87 cents on the dollar. Are you better off buying these guys or waiting for the next group?
Next Ten (11-20) Most Expensive N.L. Outfielders 2008
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | '07 |
| 11 | Adam Dunn | $21 | $26 | -6 | $24 | $26 | $28 |
| 12 (tie) | Jeff Francoeur | $6 | $25 | -18 | $22 | $23 | $24 |
| Brad Hawpe | $21 | $25 | -4 | $23 | $19 | $26 | |
| Shane Victorino | $30 | $25 | +6 | $23 | $20 | $25 | |
| 15 (tie) | Jeremy Hermida | $12 | $22 | -10 | $16 | $18 | $18 |
| Andruw Jones | -$5 | $22 | -27 | $19 | $19 | $13 | |
| 17 | Jason Bay | $19 | $21 | -2 | $21 | $20 | $14 |
| 18 | Willy Taveras | $29 | $19 | +10 | $19 | $20 | $22 |
| 19 | Juan Pierre | $22 | $18 | +4 | $14 | $21 | $34 |
| 20 (tie) | Rick Ankiel | $17 | $18 | -1 | $11 | $13 | $9 |
| Average | $17 | $22 | -5 | $19 | $20 | $21 |
This cast of characters also loses $5 per player. Novice players often believe that because these guys lost the same amount of money per player that they're just as good (or bad), but now you're only getting 77 cents back on the dollar.
You need stats, in other words. Making a $4 profit on Juan Pierre is nice, but making that same profit back on Beltran and getting a $35 player is better.
In the American League, this was were Patton caught up with the market. Here, he lags behind, spending $3 less per player than the tout leagues. In fact, the only player he buys in this group is a half share of Jason Bay. SW ties the tout leagues on Dunn and nabs Taveras and Pierre. The market gets every other player.
Remember, the market is a closed system. Because these are actual Rotisserie leagues, we know that the dollar amounts add up and the leagues aren't overspending.
By extension, then, we know that the Patton and Sports Weekly are.
Next Ten (21-30) Most Expensive N.L. Outfielders 2008
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | '07 |
| Pat Burrell | $18 | $18 | 0 | $15 | $14 | $19 | |
| 22 | Michael Bourn | $16 | $17 | -1 | $18 | $16 | $8 |
| 23 | Kosuke Fukudome | $13 | $16 | -3 | $18 | $15 | |
| 24 | Josh Willingham | $10 | $16 | -6 | $14 | $13 | $19 |
| 25 | Lastings Milledge | $21 | $16 | +6 | $14 | $14 | $7 |
| 26 | Aaron Rowand | $13 | $15 | -2 | $21 | $14 | $28 |
| 27 | Ken Griffey Jr. | $8 | $15 | -6 | $12 | $13 | $24 |
| 28 | Chris Duncan | $4 | $14 | -10 | $11 | $10 | $14 |
| 29 | Austin Kearns | $2 | $14 | -12 | $14 | $15 | $13 |
| 30 | Nate McLouth | $30 | $13 | +17 | $14 | $11 | $16 |
| Average | $14 | $15 | -2 | $15 | $14 | $15 |
At long last, Patton catches up. He gets Bourn, Fukodome, Rowand and McLouth.
You might argue that this is where your sweet spot is for hitters. Spending $15 for $14 worth of stats isn't bad.
The only problem is that you've got to take some chances at the top, because you're not turning a profit here.
What happens if you wait for these guys in the middle, break even, and try to turn a profit at the bottom?
(41-50) Most Expensive N.L. Outfielders 2008
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | '07 |
| 41 | Ryan Church | $11 | $8 | +3 | $11 | $10 | $14 |
| 42 | Xaiver Nady | $17 | $7 | +10 | $11 | $8 | $17 |
| 43 | Jay Bruce | $13 | $7 | +6 | R1 | $4 | |
| 44 | Chase Headley | $9 | $6 | +3 | R1 | $0 | |
| 45 | Brian Giles | $18 | $6 | +12 | $11 | $7 | $11 |
| Wily Mo Pena | -$2 | $6 | -8 | $4 | $13 | $8 | |
| 47 | Corey Patterson | $6 | $6 | 0 | $14 | $7 | $22 |
| 48 | Scott Hairston | $8 | $5 | +3 | $7 | $5 | $6 |
| 49 | Ryan Freel | $5 | $5 | -0 | $6 | $5 | $6 |
| 50 | Raj Davis | $0 | $4 | -4 | $3 | $1 | $11 |
| Average | $9 | $6 | +3 | $7 | $6 | $10 |
Finally! Profits! Although Pena and Davis lose money, this is where you're finally seeing some decent return on your investments! Giles! Nady! Bruce!
In all seriousness, there's no doubt that there are some solid investments here. However, you're not going to win with nothing but these guys.
Giles and Nady are the exception, not the rule here. Half of these players earn within $3 of their bid price. Getting $11 of stats out of Ryan Church for $8 is nice, but it doesn't have the same impact as getting $22 of stats out of Pierre for $18.
If you grabbed Church for $8, you probably felt OK about his line (12/49/2/.276). But you also probably had to run out and scour the waiver wire for a replacement when Church was out of commission. Chances are good that you didn't find someone who was on pace for a 22/88/4/.276 season, which is what Church would have done if he hadn't had his bell rung.
This is why you have to spend money at the top. Breaking even or losing a little money on a star player isn't perfect. But the players at the bottom are cheaper for a reason. You may hit the jackpot and wind up with Brian Giles. But you might also wind up with Wily Mo Pena. And - unlike the owners who paid $29 for Chris Young - you wound up with less than nothing if you bought Pena.
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