Top 10 N.L. Outfielders 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | AP Proj. | Proj. Rank | 2006 |
| 1 | Matt Holliday | $44 | $28 | 5 | $38 |
| 2 | Eric Byrnes | $39 | $15 | 27 | $27 |
| 3 | Juan Pierre | $34 | $27 | 6 | $34 |
| 4 | Carlos Lee | $33 | $31 | 3 | $37 |
| 5 | Carlos Beltran | $33 | $33 | 2 | $35 |
| 6 | Alfonso Soriano | $31 | $37 | 1 | $44 |
| 7 | Corey Hart | $29 | $7 | 48 | $10 |
| 8 | Aaron Rowand | $27 | $16 | 22 | $12 |
| 9 | Adam Dunn | $27 | $21 | 8 | $20 |
| 10 | Shane Victorino | $25 | $8 | 44 | $10 |
| Average | $32 | $22 | $27 |
Or, at the very least, Alex Patton had far less faith in them.
After earning $28 per player in 2006, Alex advised us to give the American League group a $1 pay cut per player. For this group, he nicks them quite a bit, giving them a $5 pay cut across the board.
Did LABR and Tout Wars see it the same way?
LABR: Holliday $36, Byrnes $20, Pierre $29, Lee $34, Beltran $34, Soriano $40, Hart $16, Rowand $16, Dunn $24, Victorino $13.
Tout Wars: Holliday $35, Byrnes $16, Pierre $26, Lee $31, Beltran $36, Soriano $41, Hart $19, Rowand $14, Dunn $22, Victorino $17.
Nope. Both spent $26, on average, for this group. There are difference of opinion in how they spend their money, but they spend it. In a three-way hypothetical auction between Alex, LABR and Tout Wars, Alex only would get Rowand, if LABR was willing to let him break the tie. LABR would buy Holliday, Byrnes, Pierre, Lee and Dunn, while the Touts would grab Beltran, Soriano, Hart and Victorino.
Did Alex simply miss on the best outfielders or was he hoarding his money?
Top 10 Predicted N.L. Outfielders 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | AP Proj. | Actual Rank | 2006 |
| 1 | Alfonso Soriano | $31 | $37 | 6 | $44 |
| 2 | Carlos Beltran | $33 | $33 | 5 | $35 |
| 3 | Carlos Lee | $33 | $31 | 4 | $37 |
| 4 | Jason Bay | $13 | $30 | 34 | $31 |
| 5 | Matt Holliday | $44 | $28 | 1 | $38 |
| 6 | Juan Pierre | $34 | $27 | 3 | $34 |
| 7 | Andruw Jones | $12 | $26 | 44 | $28 |
| 8 | Adam Dunn | $27 | $21 | 9 | $20 |
| 9 | Austin Kearns | $13 | $21 | 38 | $20 |
| 10 | Jeff Francoeur | $23 | $20 | 13 | $19 |
| Average | $26 | $27 | $31 |
LABR: Soriano $40, Holliday $36, Beltran $34, Lee $34, Jones $31, Bay $30, Pierre $29, Mike Cameron $24*, Dunn $24, Chris Young $23*.
Tout Wars: Soriano $41, Beltran $36, Holliday $35, Bay $31, Lee $31, Jones $27, Pierre $26, Willy Taveras $25*, Young $25*, Cameron $24*.
For the record, LABR cracked the $20 barrier on 16 outfielders (the others were Byrnes, Francoeur, Ryan Freel, Brad Hawpe, Dave Roberts, and Taveras), while the Tout Warriors spent $20 or more on 13 outfielders (Dunn, Kearns, Roberts). I placed an asterisk (*) on the LABR/Tout lists for those outfielders in their Top 10 who didn't make Alex's Top 10.
Alex continues to be uncharacteristically conservative here, with LABR getting Jones and Francoeur ($21) while the Touts get Bay. Alex winds up with Kearns. Cameron, Young and Taveras are obviously not going to play for Alex's team either, but neither are Freel, Hawpe or Roberts.
Putting the individual personalities and stat profiles aside, is there a reason Alex doesn't like this group?
Their A.L. counterparts earned $32 per player on average in 2006, yet Alex only gave them a $2 pay cut across the board. With this group he's far more skittish, advising us to only spend $27 on a group that earned $31 in 2006. And, as we've just seen, we'll wind up with an outfield of Austin Kearns and maybe Aaron Rowand (if we get to Alex's $16 bid price first).
The problem in reality is that we're not just competing against two other bidders. We're competing against 12. If we don't spend our money we're going to wind up with Austin Kearns and a lot of money left to spend on drinks contemplating why our outfield looks like the 1962 Mets outfield.
It's probably worth asking if Alex is at least spending his money elsewhere.
He outbids or ties LABR and Tout Wars at the following positions for the Top 10 predicted players.
Third Base: Ryan Zimmerman, Chipper Jones, Scott Rolen, Morgan Ensberg, Freddy Sanchez.
Shortstop: Jose Reyes, Bill Hall, Rich Aurilia.
Second Base:Dan Uggla, Jeff Kent, Chris Burke, Ray Durham.
First Base: Todd Helton, Nomar Garciaparra.
Catcher: Brian McCann, Johnny Estrada, Paul LoDuca, Ben Molina, Miguel Olivo.
So Alex is still pricing his leagues. He just isn't distributing his money like he used to do.
I was going to continue down this road, but I'm about to bury the lead if I keep going. So I'll return to this in my next post.
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