Next Ten (11-20) Best A.L. Outfielders 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | AP Proj. | Proj. Rank | 2006 |
| 11 | Jose Guillen | $24 | $11 | 31 | $3 |
| 12 | Hideki Matsui | $24 | $24 | 10 | $7 |
| 13 | Corey Patterson | $23 | $24 | 11 | $31 |
| 14 | Raul Ibanez | $22 | $20 | 18 | $26 |
| 15 | Johnny Damon | $22 | $25 | 8 | $28 |
| 16 | Delmon Young | $22 | $24 | 14 | $4 |
| 17 | Manny Ramirez | $20 | $30 | 5 | $28 |
| 18 | Kenny Lofton | $20 | $11 | 30 | $22 |
| 19 | Coco Crisp | $20 | $11 | 29 | $14 |
| 20 | Gary Matthews Jr. | $19 | $15 | 23 | $25 |
| Average | $22 | $20 | $19 |
It's not as predictable, but it is also a pretty reliable group in terms of earnings. Crisp, Guillen and Lofton are all bargains, while Manny is a bit of a bust. Everyone else is very close to his predicted earnings by Alex. Without even looking at the other touts and expert leagues, I'll guess that Lofton and Crisp are priced higher, since Alex has a bias against paying for speed.
This list is more than a little surprising. I assumed that since the top 10 outfielders were so predictable that there would be some fluidity here, but it isn't so. If you paid $15 for Matthews you were pretty happy, though probably not as happy as if you paid $19 for Nick Markakis.
Hindsight never interests me as much as what the conventional wisdom was back in early April.
Next 10 (11-20) Predicted A.L. Outfielders 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | AP Proj. | Actual Rank | 2006 |
| 11 | Corey Patterson | $23 | $24 | 13 | $31 |
| 12 | Rocco Baldelli | $1 | $24 | NR | $18 |
| 13 | Alex Rios | $30 | $24 | 9 | $24 |
| 14 | Delmon Young | $22 | $24 | 16 | $4 |
| 15 | Torii Hunter | $32 | $22 | 7t | $26 |
| 16 | Magglio Ordonez | $43 | $22 | 1 | $22 |
| 17 | Gary Sheffield | $25 | $20 | N/R | $8 |
| 18 | Raul Ibanez | $22 | $20 | 14 | $26 |
| 19 | Nick Markakis | $33 | $19 | 4 | $14 |
| 20 | J.D. Drew | $12 | $17 | 34 | $20 |
| Average | $24 | $22 | $19 |
The10 best predicted hitters (yesterday's post) were paid $30 and earned only $27. so, clearly, you want to target this group. Right?
With the results at your disposal, yes. Without the benefit of hindsight, probably not.
Patton is predicting that these hitters, as a group, will earn $3 more per hitter than the previous season. That's not unheard of, but it generally isn't a good idea to pay hitters on spec. You might want to bump up the younger guys (Baldelli, Rios, Markakis, Young) a couple of bucks if you expect them to build on previous seasons, but you generally don't want to give a raise to someone like Torii Hunter or Magglio Ordonez.
This group is the exception, not the rule, for hitters of this type. Obviously, the closer you get to the floor the greater your chance of success is, but there is a reason these hitters weren't projected to earn more than $22 on average. There's also a reason they didn't out earn the first group of hitters.
Moving on...
Next Ten (21-30) Best A.L. Outfielders 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | AP Proj. | Proj. Rank | 2006 |
| 21 | Garret Anderson | $18 | $14 | 26 | $15 |
| 22 | Marlon Byrd | $18 | R2 | NR | $2 |
| 23 | Reggie Willits | $18 | R3 | NR | $2 |
| 24 | Mike Cuddyer | $17 | $17 | 21 | $23 |
| 25 | Shannon Stewart | $17 | $7 | 38 | $5 |
| 26 | Jermaine Dye | $17 | $24 | 9 | $36 |
| 27 | Jack Cust | $16 | NR | $0 | |
| 28 | Mark Teahen | $16 | $20 | N/A | $19 |
| 29 | Melky Cabrera | $16 | $3 | 55 | $13 |
| 30 | Jerry Owens | $15 | NR | $1 | |
| Average | $17 | $9 | $12 |
This isn't always clear to more novice players, but one of the reasons that it isn't a good idea to field a balanced squad is because guys like Reggie Willits are sitting in the free agent pool at the beginning of the year, while guys like Byrd, Cust and Owens are on the way. We don't know how this particular drama is going to play out, but we do know that some players are going to come along and provide serious impact via the free agent pool and/or waiver wire.
Typically, there are more $1-3 players on these lists. The fact that there were three outfielders who cracked $15 and weren't available on Opening Day (Willits was supposed to be up for a week or two and made the roster) is an anomaly; often, these players are available at the auction and go for a song.
But this is why the second tier of outfielders isn't always the best place to go shopping. It isn't only the risk involved with the inferior player; it's the fact that Marlon Byrd and Jack Cust will be coming down the road later to replace the $1 scrub you bought at auction.
Next 10 (21-30) Predicted A.L. Outfielders 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | AP Proj. | Actual Rank | 2006 |
| 21 | Mike Cuddyer | $17 | $17 | 24 | $23 |
| 22 | Scott Podsednik | $5 | $16 | 55t | $21 |
| 23 | Gary Matthews Jr. | $19 | $15 | 20 | $25 |
| 24 | Craig Monroe | $5 | $14 | 16 | $16 |
| 25 | Milton Bradley | $3 | $14 | NR | $14 |
| 26 | Garret Anderson | $18 | $14 | 21 | $15 |
| 27 | Curtis Granderson | $33 | $14 | 6 | $14 |
| 28 | Brad Wilkerson | $12 | $12 | 36 | $5 |
| 29 | Coco Crisp | $20 | $11 | 19 | $14 |
| 30 | Kenny Lofton | $20 | $11 | 18 | $22 |
| Average | $15 | $14 | $17 |
You're still picking up profits from this group, so you might still want to pay $14 for $15 worth of stats rather than $30 for $27. However, do you feel good about this group as a whole?
Podsednik, Monroe and Bradley are all busts. Owners who bought Cuddyer, even if they did get him at $17 on the nose, had to be a little disappointed. But the example of why you should pay for studs, even if you know you're going to take a $3 loss, is Brad Wilkerson.
Wilkerson (20/62/4/.234 in 338 AB) broke even. But - unless you were dumping average - he was a disappointment despite this.
With only 338 AB, you probably had to dip into the free agent pool at least once to replace him. Maybe you got lucky and picked up Marlon Byrd. Maybe you weren't so lucky and wound up with Jason Botts or Jerry Hairston.
The bottom line, though, is that you weren't hoping for $12 worth of stats from Brad Wilkerson. You were eying his 2004, thinking that this was his year, and hoping for $20 of stats from Wilkerson. At the very least, you were thinking that he'd earn $15 or so.
So that's the bottom line. We're paying for production from the studs, and we can accept if we take a small hit. We're demanding profits from our mid-tier guys like Wilkerson. $12 worth of stats from Wilkerson doesn't have as much impact as $41 worth of stats from Crawford, even if we paid $41 for Crawford and $12 for Wilkerson, since we still need $29 worth of stats from somewhere else and have one less slot to fill since we used one on Wilkerson.
The converse is that, if you bought Crawford that you have $29 less to spend. But you can spend $1 on your last OF. Maybe you get Reggie Willits and maybe you don't, but if you don't you can always plug away through FAAB until you at least get some stats. Chances are, if you bought Wilkerson, you held on to him all year long to see what he did. Your chances of maximizing that slot are done once you add Brad to your team.
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