Top 10 A.L. Outfielders 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | AP Proj. | Proj. Rank | 2006 |
| 1 | Magglio Ordonez | $43 | $22 | 16 | $22 |
| 2 | Carl Crawford | $41 | $41 | 1 | $44 |
| 3 | Ichiro Suzuki | $40 | $34 | 3 | $37 |
| 4 | Nick Markakis | $33 | $19 | 19 | $14 |
| 5 | Vladimir Guerrero | $33 | $36 | 2 | $39 |
| 6 | Curtis Granderson | $33 | $14 | 27 | $14 |
| 7t | Torii Hunter | $32 | $22 | 15 | $26 |
| 7t | Grady Sizemore | $32 | $28 | 7 | $29 |
| 9 | Alex Rios | $30 | $24 | 13 | $24 |
| 10 | Bobby Abreu | $29 | $32 | 4 | $32 |
| Average | $35 | $27 | $28 |
It is correct, but you do have to spend your money.
The $27 average prediction by Alex Patton (who, as we've seen, is generally pretty close to the market in groupings of 10) tells you that this wasn't a surprising group of hitters. Ordonez, Markakis and Granderson were surprises, but their $14 and up price tags mean that they weren't $5 buys who became $30 or better players. For better or worse (in this table, for better), these guys were the subject of bidding wars, even if they weren't hardcore bidding wars like there were for Carl Crawford and Vlad Guerrero.
Top 10 Predicted A.L. Outfielders 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | AP Proj. | Actual Rank | 2006 |
| 1 | Carl Crawford | $41 | $41 | 2 | $44 |
| 2 | Vladimir Guerrero | $33 | $36 | 5 | $39 |
| 3 | Ichiro Suzuki | $40 | $34 | 3 | $37 |
| 4 | Bobby Abreu | $29 | $32 | 10 | $32 |
| 5 | Manny Ramirez | $20 | $30 | 17 | $39 |
| 6 | Vernon Wells | $14 | $29 | 32 | $33 |
| 7 | Grady Sizemore | $32 | $28 | 7t | $29 |
| 8 | Johnny Damon | $22 | $25 | 15 | $28 |
| 9 | Jermaine Dye | $17 | $24 | 26 | $36 |
| 10 | Hideki Matsui | $24 | $24 | 12 | $7 |
| Average | $27 | $30 | $32 |
And, if the market paid what Alex said to for these 10 hitters, this chart is earth-shattering.
Obviously, you don't want to get saddled with Vernon Wells, but if you told me that the Top 10 predicted outfielders were going to earn $27, I would have closed my eyes and made damn sure that I bought at least one of these 10 hitters. In fact, I probably would have bought two and filled in my catching spots with two $1 scrubs.
The most important thing in the valuation game is profit, and everyone knows that. The second most important thing is buying value, and I sometimes think people lose sight of that.
Um, that used to be the case.
LABR Top 10 Outfielders by Price: Crawford $38, Sizemore $38, Guerrero $35, Suzuki $30, Ramirez $29, Abreu $28, Matsui $28, Dye $26, V. Wells $26, Damon $24.
Tout Wars Top 10 OF by Price: Crawford $42, Guerrero $37, Sizemore $31, Suzuki $31, Abreu $29, Ramirez $28, Wells $28, Damon $27, Dye $23, Matsui $23.
Alex used to chide the market (correctly, in my opinion) for not paying the stars the big bucks. Now it seems that all of the other experts are listening to him.
This isn't necessarily to your benefit.
As I said, the good news is that you're probably going to get back some pretty strong stats on these guys. The bad news is that you're not going to sneak a Carl Crawford in at $35, like you might have been able to do a couple of years ago, when everyone was getting cute with the best hitters.
Where is the value in the outfield? I'll address that next.
No comments:
Post a Comment