As a group. There were a couple of individuals who were very unpredictable.
Top 10 N.L. Third Basemen 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | AP Proj. | Proj. Rank | 2006 |
| 1 | David Wright | $45 | $34 | 1 | $37 |
| 2 | Ryan Braun | $35 | R2 | NR | |
| 3 | Miguel Cabrera | $33 | $33 | 2 | $37 |
| 4 | Chipper Jones | $33 | $22 | 6 | $27 |
| 5 | Garrett Atkins | $26 | $26 | 5 | $35 |
| 6 | Aramis Ramirez | $25 | $27 | 3 | $30 |
| 7 | Edwin Encarnacion | $19 | $17 | 11 | $16 |
| 8 | Ryan Zimmerman | $18 | $27 | 4 | $26 |
| 9 | Pedro Feliz | $15 | $11 | 14 | $13 |
| 10 | Kevin Kouzmanoff | $15 | $9 | 15 | $1 |
| Average | $26 | $21 | $22 |
A few of the other touts were higher on Ryan Braun, but I can bet that no one expected a $6 season from him. The $22 price tag on Chipper's excusable, especially as a bid limit; his injury history didn't bode well for a $33 season.
Zimmerman's the clear disappointment here. Patton was probably more excited than the rest of the touts; he typically lowers the bid limit from last year's price; the $1 raise was a stronger endorsement than it appears to be on the surface.
The strength of the predictions is emphasized in the next list.
Top 10 Predicted N.L. Third Basemen 2007
| Rank | Player | AP$ | AP Proj. | Actual Rank | 2006 |
| 1 | David Wright | $45 | $34 | 1 | $37 |
| 2 | Miguel Cabrera | $33 | $33 | 3 | $37 |
| 3 | Aramis Ramirez | $25 | $27 | 6 | $30 |
| 4 | Ryan Zimmerman | $18 | $27 | 8 | $26 |
| 5 | Garrett Atkins | $26 | $26 | 5 | $35 |
| 6 | Chipper Jones | $33 | $22 | 4 | $27 |
| 7 | Scott Rolen | $10 | $22 | 14 | $24 |
| 8 | Morgan Ensberg | $4 | $21 | 19 (tie) | $10 |
| 9 | Chad Tracy | $5 | $20 | 17 | $19 |
| 10 | Freddie Sanchez | $18 | $18 | N/A | $25 |
| Average | $22 | $25 | $27 |
Ensberg, Tracy and Rolen are the clear busts. The Atkins and Ramirez predictions are, in my mind, impressive. I'm particularly impressed by the Atkins call; saying that an emerging hitter will lose $9 of value in his Age 27 year is saying a lot.
It's best to look at the $33 Miguel Cabrera and $34 David Wright calls in context.
N.L. 2007 Prediction Grid: Third Base
| Name | AP | PK | LABR | Tout Wars | SW | '07$ |
| Miguel Cabrera | $33 | $35 | $37 | $35 | $34 | $33 |
| David Wright | $34 | $33 | $39 | $35 | $33 | $45 |
| Aramis Ramirez | $27 | $28 | $32 | $31 | $27 | $25 |
| Garrett Atkins | $26 | $25 | $33 | $32 | $28 | $26 |
| Ryan Zimmerman | $27 | $24 | $26 | $24 | $21 | $18 |
| Scott Rolen | $22 | $22 | $21 | $22 | $21 | $10 |
| Chipper Jones | $22 | $24 | $20 | $19 | $21 | $33 |
| Edwin Encarnacion | $17 | $18 | $20 | $24 | $20 | $19 |
| Chad Tracy | $20 | $18 | $20 | $20 | $19 | $5 |
| Morgan Ensberg | $21 | $20 | $16 | $21 | $13 | $4 |
| Freddy Sanchez | $18 | $19 | $18 | $18 | $16 | $18 |
| Wilson Betemit | $14 | $9 | $11 | $12 | $12 | $4 |
| Pedro Feliz | $11 | $12 | $10 | $11 | $12 | $15 |
| Kevin Kouzmanoff* | $9 | $10 | $12 | $14 | $8 | $15 |
| Jose Bautista | $2 | $4 | $7 | $8 | $6 | $11 |
| Mike Lamb | $4 | $6 | $4 | $6 | $5 | $10 |
| Willy Aybar | $8 | $4 | $4 | $3 | $1 | |
| Russ Branyan | $1 | $1 | $6 | $5 | $2 | $2 |
| Ryan Braun | R2 | R2 | $6 | $6 | $1 | $35 |
| Corey Koskie | $2 | R2 | $1 | $4 | ||
| Scott Spiezio | $2 | R3 | $2 | $2 | $1 | $4 |
| Aaron Boone | $1 | $3 | $1 | $6 | ||
| Andy LaRoche | R2 | R2 | $3 | $2 | $1 | |
| David Bell | $2 | $1 | ||||
| Mark Bellhorn | $1 | R3 | ($1) | |||
| Greg Dobbs | R3 | $1 | $10 | |||
| Jeff Keppinger | $1 | $10 |
*UT eligible only on Auction Day in many leagues.
My observation on bid limits versus auction formats holds on the top four players. The auction leagues (LABR and Tout Wars) want stats, whereas the touts (AP, PK, SW) want profits, and also have to spread $3320 amongst 299 players. There is also enough variance at the bottom of any list that most touts in an auction format prefer to spend an extra buck or two on the top players and hope that their $1 player is listed at $4 or $5 on their sheets.
There is a lot of Stage Three guesswork going on in the third tier of players. Scott Rolen's 2003-2006 salary scan was $31, $33, $3, $24, but no one is expecting another $30+ season, and the bids reflect this, as no one is even willing to pay Rolen what he earned in '06. Freddy Sanchez's 2006 batting title made him a $25 player, but everyone's giving him a pay cut.
This is a good place to look at the predictions versus the payouts and actually admit that, in some cases, a bad prediction wasn't necessarily a bad bet.
For example, Rotoman came closest on Aaron Boone with his $3 bid limit. But Boone is the kind of guy you don't want to get stuck paying $3 for $6 worth of stats. Not when one of your opponents will probably get those same $6 of stats from a similar player priced at $1.
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