Top 10 A.L. Third Basemen 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | AP Proj. | Proj. Rank | 2006 |
| 1 | Alex Rodriguez | $54 | $34 | 1 | $33 |
| 2 | Chone Figgins | $31 | $24 | 2 | $31 |
| 3 | Mike Lowell | $31 | $11 | 12 | $17 |
| 4 | Adrian Beltre | $27 | $17 | 4 | $20 |
| 5 | Casey Blake | $16 | $9 | N/A | $16 |
| 6 | Melvin Mora | $15 | $15 | 7 | $18 |
| 7 | Alex Gordon | $14 | $17 | 5 | |
| 8 | Akinori Iwamura | $13 | $6 | 15 | |
| 9 (tie) | Josh Fields | $13 | R1 | NR | $0 |
| Troy Glaus | $13 | $16 | 6 | $20 | |
| Average | $23 | $15 | $16 |
The $23 gap between A-Rod and Figgins doesn't come close to being matched. David Ortiz's beats out Gary Sheffield by $11 at DH, but that's nowhere near what A-Rod did. There is a $14 gap between Jorge Posada and Joe Mauer, but Victor Martinez earned $26 to Posada's $28. J.J. Putz's incredible year was good for a $49 season - a staggering number, especially for those who don't pay attention to or understand valuation - but even he's only $10 better than Joe Nathan, the next best A.L. closer.
I'll talk more about A-Rod later in this post.
It looks like Patton's expectations were low for this group in general. However, it's easy to forget that there was a logjam at 3B on Auction Day 2007, due to some positional changes in the American League. Aubrey Huff and Melvin Mora (Orioles), Akinori Iwamura and B.J. Upton (Devil Rays), Alex Gordon and Mark Teahen (Royals), and Chone Figgins, Shea Hillenbrand and Macier Izturis (Angels) led to an abundance of bodies that was bound to drive prices down. In my A.L., Mike Lowell went for $8 despite the 20% inflation rate because teams ran out of spots/money. As a pricer who is concerned about meeting a $3120 budget for the entire A.L., Patton is recognizing this phenomenon and cutting costs here and there.
It's hard to say whether or not these were good projections without looking at who Alex believed the ten best 3B were going to be.
Top 10 Predicted A.L. Third Basemen 2007
| Rank | Player | AP$ | AP Proj. | Actual Rank | 2006 |
| 1 | Alex Rodriguez | $54 | $34 | 1 | $33 |
| 2 | Chone Figgins | $31 | $24 | 2 | $31 |
| 3 | Mark Teahen | $16 | $20 | N/A | $19 |
| 4 | Adrian Beltre | $27 | $17 | 4 | $20 |
| 5 | Alex Gordon | $14 | $17 | 7 | |
| 6 | Troy Glaus | $13 | $16 | 9 (tie) | $20 |
| 7 | Melvin Mora | $15 | $15 | 6 | $18 |
| 8 | Eric Chavez | $9 | $15 | 13 | $10 |
| 9 | Aubrey Huff | $15 | $15 | N/A | $13 |
| 10 | Joe Crede | $1 | $15 | NR | $20 |
| Average | $20 | $19 | $18 |
Except for A-Rod, these are pretty solid predictions as predictions go. Figgins's prediction might look too low, while Chavez's might look too high, but remember that Figgins hurt himself in the last week of Spring Training and was supposed to miss a month. The other touts I've been looking at in this series of articles suggested betting even more on a Chavez comeback. Alex nails Huff and Mora, and his conservatism on Glaus pays off (relatively speaking).
It would be helpful to look at how the other touts saw it.
A.L. 2007 Prediction Grid: Third Base
| Name | AP | PK | LABR | Tout Wars | SW | '07$ |
| Alex Rodriguez | $34 | $38 | $36 | $43 | $37 | $54 |
| Chone Figgins | $24 | $22 | $27 | $24 | $22 | $31 |
| Adrian Beltre | $17 | $20 | $22 | $21 | $20 | $27 |
| Troy Glaus | $16 | $19 | $20 | $19 | $20 | $13 |
| Mark Teahen | $20 | $15 | $19 | $16 | $18 | $16 |
| Aubrey Huff | $15 | $15 | $16 | $21 | $19 | $15 |
| Eric Chavez | $15 | $17 | $15 | $17 | $21 | $9 |
| Hank Blalock | $14 | $14 | $15 | $17 | $22 | $10 |
| Joe Crede | $15 | $14 | $19 | $16 | $15 | $1 |
| Alex Gordon | $17 | $14 | $16 | $19 | $12 | $14 |
| Melvin Mora | $15 | $18 | $11 | $14 | $17 | $15 |
| Mike Lowell | $11 | $15 | $12 | $16 | $13 | $31 |
| Shea Hillenbrand | $8 | $7 | $13 | $13 | $15 | $2 |
| Brandon Inge | $11 | $12 | $10 | $12 | $11 | $11 |
| Akinori Iwamura | $6 | $9 | $15 | $14 | $12 | $13 |
| B.J. Upton | $8 | $8 | $13 | $15 | $7 | $31 |
| Andy Marte | $5 | $6 | $8 | $11 | $9 | ($0) |
| Macier Izturis | $2 | $3 | $8 | $4 | $5 | $12 |
| Jeff Cirillo | $1 | $1 | $1 | $3 | ||
| Josh Fields | R1 | R2 | $2 | $13 | ||
| Dallas McPherson | $1 | R3 |
So far, this is the most erratic one of these tables I've produced. The prices are all over the place, and there isn't anything close to resembling a consensus. A $5 gap in price for Teahen, $6 for Huff, $8 for Blalock...either the touts have forgotten that we're in Stage Three, or perhaps they've found Stage Four and haven't told us.
What's happening here?
When there are a lot of options at one position, and only one obviously dominant option, the pecking order suddenly diverges. However, the difference of opinion isn't merely shuffling the deck; each tout or expert auction is telling you something different about how to spend your money.
Alex and Rotoman are conservative, while Sports Weekly is telling you to spend, spend, spend. And the touts do spend, blowing past Alex and/or Rotoman on every player on this list through Melvin Mora.
I don't like Alex's call on A-Rod at all. He earned $33 in 2006 in an off-year, yet Alex could only find another $1 for Rodriguez. Tout Wars' $43 might be too high for A-Rod, but $34 is definitely too low. Rotoman's $38 sounded about right to me back in early April.
Otherwise, I like Alex's projections here a lot.
What I really should have done with this chart is included the 2006 earnings for these hitters. After A-Rod and Figgins ($31), Beltre, Crede and Glaus each earned $20. A significant number of hitters earned between $10-19.
The winners here, besides the people who bought A-Rod and stuck to their guns and bought Figgins, despite his early injury, are the ones who bought Lowell and Beltre. That $31 season by Lowell was sweet.
The 5th best 3B was Casey Blake at $16, though. If you spent too much on anyone past Blake, there were many, many tears.
It was better to try and turn a profit on one of these guys than it was to gamble. Blalock, Chavez, Crede and Glaus were all injury risks, while the salary scan was pointing the wrong way on guys like Huff and Mora. Bidding $13 (LABR) and $15 (Tout Wars) on B.J. Upton paid off big, yet Andy Marte reminds us why we shouldn't, especially in a non-freeze league.
Next year will be a different ballgame. The depth at the position will have evaporated, and you should pay a little more to grab a starter. But don't chase potential or injury-prone players. You might get lucky and snag Mike Lowell, but you're far more likely to wind up with Hank Blalock or Joe Crede.
No comments:
Post a Comment