In 2009, they were even more predictable.
Top 10 N.L. First Basemen 2009
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | 2008 |
| 1 | Albert Pujols | $45 | $42 | +3 | $41 | $37 | $43 |
| 2 | Prince Fielder | $35 | $31 | +4 | $25 | $27 | $26 |
| 3 | Ryan Howard | $34 | $36 | -2 | $29 | $30 | $30 |
| 4 | Derrek Lee | $30 | $25 | +5 | $25 | $18 | $24 |
| 5 | Pablo Sandoval | $29 | $16 | +14 | $14 | $12 | $7 |
| 6 | Joey Votto | $26 | $27 | -1 | $24 | $19 | $25 |
| 7 | Adrian Gonzalez | $26 | $30 | -4 | $26 | $20 | $28 |
| 8 | Todd Helton | $24 | $10 | +14 | $14 | $10 | $5 |
| 9 | Lance Berkman | $21 | $33 | -12 | $30 | $26 | $37 |
| 10 | Adam LaRoche | $20 | $16 | +4 | $19 | $13 | $19 |
| Average | $29 | $27 | +3 | $25 | $21 | $24 |
There are two big bargains and one big bust on this list. Otherwise, the market was an incredibly reliable barometer for what to expect from these players in 2009. The market scoops up all of these hitters except Helton and LaRoche, who go to Patton, while the market and Patton tie on Lee.
The predictability somewhat negates the old saw that I always drag out about the stud hitters and how they're worth their weight in gold, even if they only break even. If you bought LaRoche and Gonzalez and a combined $46 and broke even, you're in the ballgame with the guy who bought Pujols at $42 and turned a $3 profit while spending $1 less.
While Patton falls a little short of the market, Sports Weekly falls absurdly short - missing the mark by a whopping $6 per player. The only players they come within $3 or less on are Helton and LaRoche. I don't know anyone on the Sports Weekly team, so I can only speculate, but I suspect that they're looking at all of these hitters, thinking that there are so many good ones that they'll get somebody at some point, and simply missing out entirely as a result.
The bad news for Sports Weekly - and any other cheapskates - is that the next chart is pretty similar to the first.
Ten Most Expensive N.L. First Basemen 2009
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | 2008 |
| 1 | Albert Pujols | $45 | $42 | +3 | $41 | $37 | $43 |
| 2 | Ryan Howard | $34 | $36 | -2 | $29 | $30 | $30 |
| 3 | Lance Berkman | $21 | $33 | -12 | $30 | $26 | $37 |
| 4 | Prince Fielder | $35 | $31 | +4 | $25 | $27 | $26 |
| 5 | Adrian Gonzalez | $26 | $30 | -4 | $26 | $20 | $28 |
| 6 | Joey Votto | $26 | $27 | -1 | $24 | $19 | $25 |
| 7 | Derrek Lee | $30 | $25 | +5 | $25 | $18 | $24 |
| 8 | James Loney | $20 | $22 | -2 | $20 | $17 | $21 |
| 9 | Conor Jackson | $1 | $20 | -18 | $19 | $17 | $22 |
| 10 | Carlos Delgado | $5 | $18 | -13 | $18 | $16 | $27 |
| Average | $24 | $28 | -4 | $26 | $23 | $28 |
Loney, Jackson and Delgado slide in for Helton, LaRoche and Sandoval; the other seven hitters remain the same. Worse yet, they're the first seven hitters on this chart. Berkman is the only expensive beating in the top eight, and getting back $21 for a $33 cost is clearly better than getting back $5 for $18.
Top-tier consistency is the bane of any owner looking to win with bargains in the middle or at the end. As a group, these guys actually do slightly worse than their 2008 counterparts, but that's almost entirely because of Jackson and Delgado. What's appealing about these guys is that - minus Berkman - you almost know exactly what it is you're paying for.
As a result, I suspect that the smart money will up the ante next year and pay even a little more for what they hope will be another year of consistency.
Roto being what it is, though, I suspect that there will be some disappointments in 2010 - even if we can't yet see or know who those disappointments will be.
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