Saturday, December 05, 2009

2009 N.L. Second Basemen

For the first time this winter, one of these charts features two un-auctioned players.

Top 10 N.L. Second Basemen 2009
#
Player$Sal
+/-
AP
SW
2008
1Chase Utley
$33$35-3
$29$31$33
2Brandon Phillips
$28$30-3
$28$29$24
3Chris Coghlan
$21




4Felipe Lopez
$21$15+6
$9$10$12
5Luis Castillo
$19$6+13
$7$5$9
6Dan Uggla
$18$22
-4
$19
$18
$22
7Clint Barmes
$18$8+9
$7$3$17
8Orlando Hudson
$17$11
+6
$16
$10
$13
9Everth Cabrera
$14




10Kaz Matsui
$14$13
+1
$8
$8
$17

Average
$20$18+3
$15$14$15

It's not unheard of; last year's N.L. shortstops and A.L. first basemen also had two un-auctioned players crack the Top 10 at their respective positions. But since it hasn't happened yet this year, it's worth explaining how these anomalies impact these charts.

Players like Coghlan and Cabrera who earn money but aren't auctioned are counted in the average earnings and 2008 earnings only. Since all three tout leagues took a pass, these players don't count as profits but rather as free loot. It's a fine distinction between a player who was drafted in one expert league at $1 and has an average salary of $0 and a free player, but I feel like there's a difference between a free agent pick-up and an auctioned player. So the distinction stands.

Unlike in the A.L., the market is more much more willing to pay for scarcity than the touts are. Once again, Sports Weekly is uber-conservative; though in this case Patton finally resembles the timid bidder he was in the A.L. and is lagging pretty far behind the market as well. He does express his preferences strongly on Castillo and Hudson, though, so it can be argued that he'll wind up with some players in this three-way hypothetical auction. SW, on the other hand, doesn't have the highest bid on anyone; you have to wonder what they're waiting for.

For the most part, the hierarchy is the same...

Ten Most Expensive N.L. Second Basemen 2009
#
Player$Sal
+/-
AP
SW
2008
1Chase Utley
$33$35-3
$29$31$33
2Brandon Phillips
$28$30-3
$28$29$24
3Dan Uggla$18$22 -4$19$18 $22
4Kelly Johnson
$7$19-13
$18$17$19
5Rickie Weeks
$7$17-10
$16$17$13
6Felipe Lopez$21$15+6$9$10$12
7Kaz Matsui$14$13+1$8$8$17
8Freddy Sanchez
$13$12
+1
$8
$9
$9
9Orlando Hudson$17$11
+6
$16
$10
$13
10Mike Fontenot
$7
$10
-4
$5
$6
$11

Average
$17$18-2
$16$16$17

...but once again the results are pretty similar. Patton is way out in front on Hudson while SW is slightly in front, but otherwise the rankings for these players are alike even if the bids are different.

This chart illustrates the difference between the market and the touts when it comes to the hitters who cost $10-15. While Patton and Sports Weekly are fairly tepid on everyone from Weeks on down (with the exception of Patton's running obsession with Hudson), the market recognizes that guys like Coghlan and Cabrera may never come. Paying $10 to get $7 worth of stats from Fontenot is far from optimal, but when the next names on the list include the likes of Clint Barmes, Emmanuel Burriss, Luis Castillo, and Ronnie Belliard, it's evident that what the market is trying to do is buy AB.

Patton and SW reject that notion. It's better to spend your money elsewhere, get stats, and hope that someone like Coghlan or Cabrera comes along later.

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