But if I learning anything in the handful of journalism classes I took in college, it's that you should never bury the lead.
Ten Most Expensive N.L. Shortstops 2009
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | 2008 |
| 1 | Hanley Ramirez | $41 | $46 | -5 | $43 | $41 | $39 |
| 2 | Jose Reyes | $7 | $44 | -37 | $38 | $40 | $42 |
| 3 | Jimmy Rollins | $26 | $38 | -12 | $32 | $33 | $31 |
| 4 | Stephen Drew | $14 | $24 | -10 | $20 | $19 | $20 |
| 5 | Rafael Furcal | $17 | $23 | -6 | $23 | $23 | $11 |
| 6 | Troy Tulowitzki | $33 | $21 | +12 | $20 | $21 | $7 |
| 7 | J.J. Hardy | $6 | $20 | -14 | $18 | $15 | $20 |
| 8 | Ryan Theriot | $21 | $15 | +6 | $14 | $12 | $20 |
| 9 | Cristian Guzman | $14 | $13 | +1 | $14 | $9 | $20 |
| 10 | Yunel Escobar | $22 | $13 | +9 | $10 | $15 | $14 |
| Average | $20 | $26 | -6 | $23 | $23 | $22 |
This is the third year I've been compiling these charts, and Jose Reyes' $37 loss is the biggest loss a player has taken by a good $10 (Andruw Jones took a $27 bath last year).
Without Reyes, the market pays $24 per player for these hitters and they earn $22. Still a loss, but a decent rate of return for your $24. It's an especially solid rate of return when you consider that the market is pushing hard for these guys.
Most Expensive N.L. Hitters: Earnings vs. Cost 2009
| Position | Sal | 2008 | +/- |
| Catcher | $16 | $16 | 0 |
| First Base | $28 | $28 | 0 |
| Second Base | $18 | $17 | +1 |
| Shortstop | $26 | $22 | +3 |
The $3 raise per player blows away anything else we've seen in the National League so far. A large chunk of this is people betting on bounce back seasons for Tulo and Furcal. But notice that there's definitely a hard push for who the top hitters are perceived to be, while the money comes from the shortstops from #8 on down. Escobar takes a slight pay-cut, while Guzman and Theriot get robbed.
I don't believe that the market really believes that Guzman and Theriot are necessarily going to be that much worse, but they probably do believe that what they earned in 2008 is a ceiling, and they don't want to pay for a $20 ceiling on a guy who could earn half that or less. Meanwhile, paying $38 or more on the three Rs has nothing to do with the ceiling. Their owners want stats and are willing to pay a premium for those stats.
The question I always ask is: was it right to pay that premium?
Top 10 N.L. Shortstops 2009
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | 2008 |
| 1 | Hanley Ramirez | $41 | $46 | -5 | $43 | $41 | $39 |
| 2 | Troy Tulowitzki | $33 | $21 | +12 | $20 | $21 | $7 |
| 3 | Jimmy Rollins | $26 | $38 | -12 | $32 | $33 | $31 |
| 4 | Miguel Tejada | $25 | $12 | +13 | $19 | $18 | $17 |
| 5 | Yunel Escobar | $22 | $13 | +9 | $10 | $15 | $14 |
| 6 | Ryan Theriot | $21 | $15 | +6 | $14 | $12 | $20 |
| 7 | Rafael Furcal | $17 | $23 | -6 | $23 | $23 | $11 |
| 8 | Brendan Ryan | $14 | $2 | +13 | $2 | $2 | |
| 9 | Cristian Guzman | $14 | $13 | +1 | $14 | $9 | $20 |
| 10 | Stephen Drew | $14 | $24 | -10 | $20 | $19 | $20 |
| Average | $23 | $21 | +2 | $20 | $19 | $18 |
In terms of reliability, yes. Ryan and Tejada crack this list, but eight out of the 10 players from the most expensive chart also happened to make the Top 10.
Patton and Sports Weekly's aggressive bids on Tejada (great call, Alex) push the touts closer to the market's average salary, but Patton and SW are still being timid on all of these groupings of hitters. Of the 12 hitters listed in these two charts, Patton gets Tejada and Guzman and SW gets Escobar. Patton ties on Ryan, SW on Tulo, and both touts tie on Furcal.
The market grabs everyone else.
I raved about reliable the N.L. first basemen were this year, but the best shortstops earned $23 per player and with the exception of Ryan didn't come out of left field. I'd probably keep paying these guys until they prove they can't do it anymore; this position is starting to look a pretty stable place to invest your dough.
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