Ten Most Expensive A.L. Second Basemen 2009
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | 2008 |
| 1 | Ian Kinsler | $26 | $36 | -10 | $34 | $35 | $34 |
| 2 | Dustin Pedroia | $25 | $34 | -9 | $27 | $27 | $36 |
| 3 | Brian Roberts | $27 | $31 | -4 | $29 | $26 | $33 |
| 4 | Alexei Ramirez | $18 | $28 | -11 | $23 | $29 | $26 |
| 5 | Robinson Cano | $27 | $20 | +8 | $17 | $24 | $15 |
| 6 | Jose Lopez | $18 | $17 | +1 | $16 | $16 | $24 |
| 7 | Mark DeRosa | $10 | $16 | -7 | $15 | $11 | $22 |
| 8 | Placido Polanco | $17 | $16 | +1 | $16 | $12 | $19 |
| 9 | Howie Kendrick | $16 | $15 | +1 | $15 | $20 | $14 |
| 10 | Aaron Hill | $27 | $11 | +16 | $11 | $13 | $4 |
| Average | $21 | $22 | -2 | $20 | $21 | $23 |
And you'd be right.
Part of this is the stability of the position from 2008 to 2009. Ramirez, Lopez and DeRosa replace 2008's Akinori Iwamura, Mark Ellis, and Asdrubal Cabrera on the most expensive list, but the seven most expensive 2B from 2008 make a return appearance here. We're not only paying for stats but for stability, and from that standpoint this is a fairly predictable group.
Despite that, the market can't see giving this group of 10 a raise from 2008; they get a $1 pay cut per player last year. There's a mistrust that Lopez will do it again, or that DeRosa will get enough AB to do it again.
Alex Patton and Sports Weekly are even more conservative. Sports Weekly recommends a $2 per player paycut from 2008, while Patton goes as far as $3 per player. The only player on this list Patton would buy is Polanco if the market would let him break the tie. Sports Weekly would get Ramirez, Cano, and Kendrick. The market would get everyone else.
I believe there's a prejudice by the experts - and particularly by Patton - to avoid overpaying due to position scarcity. I'm starting to believe that it's entirely possible that we're all beginning to overcompensate in the other direction and really rip these guys off.
Top 10 A.L. Second Basemen 2009
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | 2008 |
| 1 | Robinson Cano | $27 | $20 | +8 | $17 | $24 | $15 |
| 2 | Brian Roberts | $27 | $31 | -4 | $29 | $26 | $33 |
| 3 | Aaron Hill | $27 | $11 | +16 | $11 | $13 | $4 |
| 4 | Ian Kinsler | $26 | $36 | -10 | $34 | $35 | $34 |
| 5 | Dustin Pedroia | $25 | $34 | -9 | $27 | $27 | $36 |
| 6 | Asdrubal Cabrera | $21 | $9 | +12 | $7 | $12 | $8 |
| 7 | Adam Kennedy | $19 | $9 | ||||
| 8 | Jose Lopez | $18 | $17 | +1 | $16 | $16 | $24 |
| 9 | Alexei Ramirez | $18 | $28 | -11 | $23 | $29 | $26 |
| 10 | Alberto Callaspo | $18 | $3 | +14 | $4 | $3 | $5 |
| Average | $23 | $21 | +2 | $19 | $21 | $19 |
Since Adam Kennedy wasn't purchased by any of the expert leagues that determine the "Sal" column, he isn't computed into the average salary or Patton and Sports Weekly's averages.
This also means that of the 10 most expensive hitters, only Cabrera and Callaspo slide in for DeRosa, Polanco and Kendrick in terms of players purchased by the market. Once again, not good news for owners trying to get by with bargains up the middle.
Patton most definitely qualifies as someone trying to get away with sneaking bargains through...Callaspo is the only hitter on these first two list he "buys" outright in a three-way battle with the market and Sports Weekly...which adds Cabrera to its list of 2B.
Is Patton spending his money on any 2B?
The Rest of the A.L. Keystone: 2009
| Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | 2008 |
| Akinori Iwamura | $7 | $8 | -1 | $8 | $8 | $12 |
| Alexi Casilla | $2 | $7 | -5 | $9 | $6 | $13 |
| Mark Ellis | $12 | $7 | +5 | $7 | $6 | $11 |
| Chris Getz | $12 | $5 | +7 | $3 | $3 | $1 |
| Joe Inglett | $2 | $2 | 0 | $3 | $12 | |
| Eric Patterson | $4 | $1 | +3 | $2 | ||
| Ronny Cedeno | -$1 | $1 | -2 | $1 | $5 | |
| Jamey Carroll | $7 | $0 | +7 | $8 | ||
| Esteban German | $2 | $0 | +2 | $4 | ||
| Joe Dillon | $1 | $0 | +1 | $0 | ||
| Joaquin Arias | -$1 | $0 | -1 | $4 | ||
| Average | $4 | $3 | +1 | $3 | $2 | $7 |
Not really. He and Sports Weekly both run out of steam on these bottom of the barrel guys; Sports Weekly sooner than Patton does.
I bring this up not to malign Patton. I love his stuff and rely heavily on his bids for my own auctions. I do wind up tweaking, though, when it comes to catcher and middle infield. My leagues resemble the market prices more than Patton's bids, and I don't want to wind up crossing my fingers on a Casilla/Inglett/Ellis middle infield when all is said and done. I'd rather push these players to par and then kiss them goodbye when they eventually go past it.
1 comment:
I think Alex's bid prices don't match up well with his computed projected prices. This would play itself out pretty heavily in the MI. I've found that Patton's projected prices are some of the few that accurately value BAvg. Also SB are extremely valued. For that reason I frequently come home from the draft with players like Ichiro, Crawford, and Figgins.
Several secondbasemen fit that profile - high average, high SB. Yet, the Patton bid isn't quite there. If he just bid his projections he'd probably get Brian Roberts. Same goes for Kendrick b/c his projected BAvg is quite high with solid steals. Cano is another BAvg guy, but without the bags. Polanco as well. I'd be interested in seeing the projected price versus AP Bid price.
I don't use PK's projections, I do my own, but the result should prove the same because the relative valuation is the same in the software.
Post a Comment