Top 10 Hitters by Position, 2009
| Position | $ | Sal | AP | SW | 2008 |
| Catcher | $156 | $109 | $75 | $113 | $97 |
| First Base | $196 | $232 | $200 | $191 | $228 |
| Second Base | $226 | $189 | $168 | $185 | $194 |
| Total | $578 | $530 | $443 | $489 | $519 |
In particular, first and second basemen have been extremely predictable based on market price vs. actual earnings. A $36 or $37 gap might sound like a lot for 10 hitters, but given the fact that these are the 10 best hitters at each position, it's a surprise that the gap isn't more at 2B (It's an even bigger surprise that the 10 best hitters take a loss at 1B, but that's a subject for another post). Catchers are somewhat less predictable, but as I discussed in that post, it seemed that the market was too conservative on the hitters who were injured in 2008 who were likely to bounce back in 2009.
In this context, the best American League shortstops were incredibly unpredictable.
Top 10 A.L. Shortstops 2009
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | 2008 |
| 1 | Derek Jeter | $34 | $23 | +11 | $18 | $23 | $22 |
| 2 | Jason Bartlett | $28 | $12 | +17 | $8 | $11 | $16 |
| 3 | Ben Zobrist | $27 | $2 | +25 | $1 | $1 | $8 |
| 4 | Michael Young | $24 | $19 | +5 | $20 | $23 | $21 |
| 5 | Marco Scutaro | $19 | $4 | +15 | $5 | $4 | $12 |
| 6 | Erick Aybar | $19 | $5 | +13 | $5 | $9 | $10 |
| 7 | Orlando Cabrera | $19 | $11 | +8 | $17 | $11 | $20 |
| 8 | Maicer Izturis | $18 | $3 | +14 | $2 | $3 | $10 |
| 9 | Elvis Andrus | $18 | $12 | +6 | $3 | $4 | |
| 10 | Gordon Beckham | $13 | |||||
| Average | $22 | $10 | +13 | $9 | $10 | $12 |
The market only expected to see five of the 10 hitters on this list. But the surprising nature of this list compared to the other positions I've reviewed so far is even more striking. Even if you omit Beckham (as the market did this past spring), there were four shortstops that went for $5 or less who made the cut here. Only one catcher - Rod Barajas at $3- cost $5 or less and the same held true at second base, where Alberto Callaspo at $3 cracked the Top 10 at his position. Heck, at first base Nick Swisher was the only hitter to crack the Top 10 and cost in the single digits.
So shortstop is where you wanted to bottom feed and hope to wind up with Ben Zobrist or - failing that - Marco Scutaro.
The problem was...
Ten Most Expensive A.L. Shortstops 2009
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | 2008 |
| 1 | Derek Jeter | $34 | $23 | +11 | $18 | $23 | $22 |
| 2 | Jhonny Peralta | $10 | $22 | -12 | $16 | $18 | $21 |
| 3 | Michael Young | $24 | $19 | +5 | $20 | $23 | $21 |
| 4 | Mike Aviles | -$1 | $17 | -18 | $12 | $15 | $20 |
| 5 | Jason Bartlett | $28 | $12 | +17 | $8 | $11 | $16 |
| 6 | Elvis Andrus | $18 | $12 | +6 | $3 | $4 | |
| 7 | Orlando Cabrera | $19 | $11 | +8 | $17 | $11 | $20 |
| 8 | Jed Lowrie | -$1 | $9 | -10 | $7 | $6 | $5 |
| 9 | Yuniesky Betancourt | $5 | $9 | -4 | $8 | $9 | $12 |
| 10 | Nick Punto | $7 | $6 | +2 | $5 | $4 | $12 |
| Average | $14 | $14 | 0 | $11 | $12 | $15 |
...that everyone seemed to have the same idea.
Only seven shortstops cracked double digits in cost last year...or the same as catchers. While everyone was pouring their money into first base ($26 per player) and second base ($22 per player), the market hedged their bets here for the most part.
If you look carefully at the chart, the reason is pretty obvious. Everyone is guided less by AP and SW and much more by 2008.
Lowrie and Andrus are the only hitters here who get paid on spec, while Cabrera gets cheated (presumably because he signed late, but more likely because he's getting up there). Everyone else almost falls in lockstep with the 2008 $ values. Edgar Renteria disappears to the National League, while no one expects Scutaro to hold the job all year so he drops.
It's a fairly instructive exercise if you're looking for a steady vet and are also looking for cost certainly. In retrospect, Jeter and Young were clearly the right choices while Peralta and Aviles were the wrong ones, but if you felt comfortable paying what any of those four earned in '08, you pretty much could have done so.
1 comment:
As much as I dislike the mythology that surrounds him, there is really nobody better at returning your investment at SS than Derek Jeter. He's always good for a .300+ BAvg and 100 runs. His SB are solidly predictable in the mid-teens, but sometimes make his value by jumping closer to 30. The HR are much more unpredictable, but solidly above 10.
At this point he's entering uncharted territory given his age. Shortstops usually don't last much past age 35 at the position. If they hit they migrate. Yount did it much earlier. Ripken did it around now. Trammell and Larkin became unreliable because of injury and each only had one more "full" season with many partials the rest of the way to age 40.
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