For those of you who are fairly new to the blog, this is my third annual installment of position-by-position reviews, starting with the American League. Prices are for 12-team A.L.-only and 13-team N.L.-only leagues. They're based on Alex Patton's pricing methodologies, but I customize the values somewhat. The result is that the prices might be a dollar off one way or the other for individual players. The important thing is that my values for the 276 or 299 players purchased in A.L. or N.L.-only leagues add up to $3,120 or $3,380 just like Alex's do.
The big change this year is that this is the first year I'm using 5x5 values instead of 4x4. I asked my readers which format they'd prefer to see and most said they didn't care but that they play 5x5. Since that's where the game has headed, that's the format I'll use going forward.
For 2008 values, I'm stuck using 4x4 since I didn't calculate the 5x5 formulas last year. You'll find that for hitters this doesn't make a huge difference but for pitchers it makes a big difference.
Alex Patton's bid limits (the AP column) are also 4x4.
Another change I've made this year is that I've decided to list players based upon where they qualified coming into 2009 and not at the end of the year. In most cases, this doesn't make much of a difference, but you will see some examples (Brandon Inge in this post) where this does have an impact. I feel that this change gives us a more realistic snapshot of what happened last spring.
On to the catchers...
Top 10 A.L. Catchers 2009
| Rank | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | 2008 (4x4) | AP | SW |
| 1 | Joe Mauer | $32 | $20 | +13 | $23 | $12 | $25 |
| 2 | Victor Martinez | $23 | $17 | +6 | $5 | $17 | $23 |
| 3 | Kurt Suzuki | $17 | $9 | +8 | $10 | $4 | $6 |
| 4 | Jorge Posada | $16 | $10 | +6 | $4 | $10 | $14 |
| 5 | A.J. Pierzynski | $14 | $10 | +4 | $14 | $9 | $12 |
| 6 | Mike Napoli | $13 | $14 | -1 | $17 | $7 | $10 |
| 7 | Miguel Olivo | $12 | $6 | +7 | $11 | $6 | $3 |
| 8 | Brandon Inge | $12 | $8 | +4 | $5 | $6 | $9 |
| 9 | Matt Wieters | $9 | $12 | -3 | $7 | ||
| 10 | Rod Barajas | $8 | $3 | +5 | $8 | $4 | $4 |
| Average | $16 | $11 | +5 | $10 | $8 | $11 |
For every one of these posts, the average salary is comprised of three expert leagues: Sports Weekly's League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR), Tout Wars, and the CBS Sportsline Analysts leagues. The SW column is the bid limits proposed by Steve Gardner in the March 25 edition of Sports Weekly.
For the second year in a row, what jumps out is that the old saw about paying for position scarcity simply doesn't apply. While this group does get a $1 average raise from 2008, a lot of that is Wieters (minors in 2008). V-Mart (injured), and Posada (injured). The Catch-22 here is that if V-Mart and Posada had been healthy in 2008, they both probably would have cost more.
Of course, the injury factor is exactly why most expert owners don't push the envelope on catchers. I examined this phenomenon last spring and concluded that this is mostly a myth. If anything, it feels like the marketplace has gone too far in the other direction: they're trying to squeeze on every single catcher and letting the competition soak up profits at a position where you should be looking for stats.
But that's easy to say when you look at the 10 best of anything. What about the 10 priciest?
Ten Most Expensive A.L. Catchers 2009
| Rank | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | 2008 (4x4) | AP | SW |
| 1 | Joe Mauer | $32 | $20 | +13 | $23 | $12 | $25 |
| 2 | Victor Martinez | $23 | $17 | +6 | $5 | $17 | $23 |
| 3 | Mike Napoli | $13 | $14 | -1 | $17 | $7 | $10 |
| 4 | Matt Wieters | $9 | $12 | -3 | $7 | ||
| 5 | Jorge Posada | $16 | $10 | +6 | $4 | $10 | $14 |
| 6 | A.J. Pierzynski | $14 | $10 | +4 | $14 | $9 | $12 |
| 7 | Dioner Navarro | $3 | $10 | -7 | $11 | $12 | $10 |
| 8 | Kurt Suzuki | $17 | $9 | +8 | $10 | $4 | $6 |
| 9 | Jarrod Saltalamacchia | $4 | $9 | -5 | $3 | $6 | $7 |
| 10 | Jeff Clement | $8 | -8 | $2 | $5 | $7 | |
| Average | $13 | $12 | +1 | $9 | $8 | $12 |
It's even clearer from this grouping that owners aren't paying enough. Even with Salty and Clement dragging the earnings down, the 10 most expensive catchers turned a profit last year. That simply shouldn't happen.
Patton is even more pessimistic than the rest of the market (though perhaps he's part of the reason why the market is so pessimistic. In a three-way hypothetical bidding war with the market on the catchers listed in the first two tables, he would only have bought Navarro, tied with Sports Weekly on Barajas and tied with the market on Olivo.
What are the market and Patton waiting for behind the dish?
Next Ten Most Expensive (11-20)A.L. Catchers 2009
| Rank | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | 2008 (4x4) | AP | SW |
| 11 | Brandon Inge | $12 | $8 | +4 | $5 | $6 | $9 |
| 12 | Kelly Shoppach | $4 | $7 | -4 | $13 | $6 | $8 |
| 13 | Miguel Olivo | $12 | $6 | +7 | $11 | $6 | $3 |
| 14 | Gerald Laird | $3 | $6 | -2 | $9 | $3 | $8 |
| 15 | Rod Barajas | $8 | $3 | +5 | $8 | $4 | $4 |
| 16 | Taylor Teagarden | $2 | $3 | -1 | $5 | $4 | $4 |
| 17 | Kenji Johjima | $4 | $2 | +2 | $3 | $3 | $2 |
| 18 | Jason Varitek | $4 | $2 | +2 | $3 | $3 | $5 |
| 19 | John Buck | $5 | $2 | +3 | $4 | $2 | $2 |
| 20 | Max Ramirez | $2 | -2 | $1 | |||
| Average | $5 | $4 | +1 | $6 | $4 | $5 |
If you're not going to pay for the top producers, you're hoping to pull some rabbits out of your hat on the lower end of the pay scale. The bad news for the market is that while Inge and Olivo provided some tidy little profits, most of the bang for your buck was at the top end of the pay scale. It appears that you're almost better off paying more for a top catcher and sinking a $1 into some random back-up than trying to find out if you'll get lucky with Kenji Johjima.
Both groupings of 10 turn a profit. But you're better off getting back $13 for your $12 investment than $5 for your $4. I'll probably emphasize this point over and over again this winter, but for all of my talk of profits and losses, your goal is to buy stats. Having your $2 Jason Varitek earn $4 is nice...but a team of $4 earners isn't going to win you the league. If you see catchers slipping like this in your A.L. next year, my advice is to buy.
Heck, you might even want to buy two $10+ catchers.
2 comments:
Glad to see you back on the blog. This is my favorite part of the blog, other than draft strategy. Maybe it's because it reminds me of Alex's great books from the late 80s, early 90s.
One thing to remember is that Mauer was known to be out for at least one month before the season with greater risky projections about his unknown health condition (kindneys, back, who knows).
Victor had just missed a big part of last season with collapsed production. Posada has also missed a huge chunk of 2008 and is in the category of aged backstop.
The only safe bet, in my mind pre-season was Kurt Suzuki. I think he was undervalued by most, though.
Taking risks on previously injured players may be part of Stage 4. Risk is priced in, but if they return to form, you get a profit on high quality players. I did it with Figgins in 2008 when he was known to be missing April. A friend did it with Roberts when he was rumored to be dealt to the NL by the Orioles in 2008. This year I did it with Mauer. If you get two hitters like this with a high established value, but depressed by injury or some other factor, he's more likely to reach his former levels than a player establishing a new level of play.
Hi Eugene. I'm glad you pointed that out about Mauer, because it gives me an opportunity to address something that wouldn't have fit into this particular post.
The three expert auctions were held in early February (Sportsline), early March (LABR), and late March. In most instances this had little to no impact on prices. In some cases, however, this had a significant impact. I'll probably address this in a future post.
In Mauer's case, I paid $24 for him in Sportsline before his injury was reported. He went for $21 in LABR nearly a month later. He then sank to $12 in Tout Wars, when the warnings about him were at their most dire.
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