Top 10 A.L. Third Basemen 2009
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | 2008 |
| 1 | Chone Figgins | $28 | $23 | +5 | $22 | $20 | $19 |
| 2 | Evan Longoria | $26 | $33 | -7 | $26 | $24 | $24 |
| 3 | Alex Rodriguez | $25 | $32 | -8 | $27 | $31 | $38 |
| 4 | Mike Lowell | $15 | $12 | +3 | $15 | $11 | $16 |
| 5 | Russ Branyan | $15 | $4 | +11 | $3 | $4 | $6 |
| 6 | Scott Rolen | $14 | $5 | +9 | $8 | $5 | $11 |
| 7 | Adrian Beltre | $11 | $22 | -10 | $17 | $19 | $21 |
| 8 | Hank Blalock | $11 | $15 | -5 | $15 | $16 | $11 |
| 9 | Ty Wigginton | $9 | $10 | -1 | $12 | $5 | $18 |
| 10 | Jose Bautista | $7 | $0 | +7 | $3 | $1 | $8 |
| Average | $16 | $16 | 0 | $15 | $14 | $17 |
The 10 best 3B in the American League earned $22 in 2008; last year they "only" earned $16. If you take the best first basemen from last year who were also eligible at 3B entering 2009, it only helps a little. Kevin Youkilis and Aubrey Huff push this group up to $18 per player (though now this group costs $20 player).
This chart is a good example of how owners prefer overpaying for certainty rather than paying too much for second- or third-tier players. Rolen is probably the best example of this; injury-risk or no, he should definitely have gone for more than an average salary of $5 (he only went for $2 in CBS Sports, but this doesn't completely explain away the conservatism on Rolen, who earned $11 in 2008 and even in a worst case scenario was good for a similar season in 2009.
The chase for Longoria has less to do with an old fashioned Stage Two bidding war and more to do with owners demanding stats from a tough position. Generally, the market cannot bring itself to pay the 10 best expected hitters at a position what they earned the previous season...
Ten Most Expensive A.L. Third Basemen 2009
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | 2008 |
| 1 | Evan Longoria | $26 | $33 | -7 | $26 | $24 | $24 |
| 2 | Alex Rodriguez | $25 | $32 | -8 | $27 | $31 | $38 |
| 3 | Chone Figgins | $28 | $23 | +5 | $22 | $20 | $19 |
| 4 | Adrian Beltre | $11 | $22 | -10 | $17 | $19 | $21 |
| 5 | Alex Gordon | $4 | $21 | -17 | $18 | $15 | $15 |
| 6 | Hank Blalock | $11 | $15 | -5 | $15 | $16 | $11 |
| 7 | Melvin Mora | $8 | $14 | -6 | $14 | $10 | $24 |
| 8 | Mike Lowell | $15 | $12 | +3 | $15 | $11 | $16 |
| 9 | Ty Wigginton | $9 | $10 | -1 | $12 | $5 | $18 |
| 10 | Brandon Wood | $0 | $10 | -10 | $7 | $1 | $2 |
| Average | $14 | $19 | -6 | $17 | $15 | $19 |
...but they did exactly that last year.
Hmmmm...it's possible that there was some Stage Two chasing here. Longoria, Gordon, Wood...these are all players that had never come close to earning what they were paid last year. It would have taken a monster season by Longoria to earn $33 in 5x5. Surely the experts chasing him to this price weren't stupid enough to think he'd earn it, were they?
My guess is no. In all of these charts, we've seen conservatism on the part of AP and SW that the market hasn't shared. There's an assumption that there are plenty of Jose Bautista's stuck to the bottom of the cookie jar; if the market aims too high for Longoria, they'll hope that they grab Bautista later.
As a result, this is where we can see AP rallying. Both this year and last, I thought that Patton was being too conservative, but it looks to me like he's pursuing his usual boring as unsweetened lemonade Stage Three approach. In the group of hitters above, he "buys" Lowell, Rolen, Wigginton, Bautista and ties on Mora. If you're charitable and let allow Patton to let go of his share of Mora, he spends $27 for $45 worth of stats.
I'm left with the same problem that I've had with Patton's bids the last couple of years. I know that they add up to $3,120 (in the American League), but I also know that he's not spending enough for hitters and too much on pitchers. The result is what we've seen so far: some savvy mid-tier and end game buys, but a "team" that's going to probably spend $100-120 on profitable hitters while overspending on pitching.
There's nothing wrong with a modified version of this approach. I did something similar in the CBS Sports A.L. expert league and won while spending $147 on hitters. If the room lets you get enough profits, you can still win.
But you have to draw the line somewhere, and I'm not sure that AP's line in the sand is far enough away from the rough surf behind him.
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