Monday, November 17, 2008

2008 A.L. Third Basemen

On average, the best American League third basemen in 2008 earned $1 less per player than they did in 2007. On the whole, though, the position actually got better.

Top 10 A.L. Third Basemen 2008
#
Player$Sal
+/-
AP
SW
2007
1Alex Rodriguez
$38$47-9
$42$43$53
2Aubrey Huff
$32$13+20
$14$10$14
3Melvin Mora
$24$9+15
$11
$10$15
4Evan Longoria
$24$14
+9
R1
$5

5Adrian Beltre
$21$22-1
$20$20$26
6Chone Figgins
$19$29
-10
$29
$28
$32
7Mike Lowell
$16$19-3
$18$14$30
8Carlos Guillen
$16$29
-13
$24
$26
$27
9Alex Gordon
$15$21-5
$16
$17
$13
10Casey Blake
$14$11
+3
$11
$6
$16

Average
$22$21+1
$19$18$23

If A-Rod had simply had the good grace to earn $53 again in 2008, this crop of hitters would have beat out their 2007 counterparts by 70 cents per player.

The market certainly expected a lot more last year than they did in 2007, paying $21 per player versus the measly $15 per player they paid in 2007. Then again, this group of hitters earned $23 on average in '07, compared to the $16 the comparable crop of '07 hitters earned in 2006, so the greater expectations were most definitely warranted. Of all the positions I've profiled so far, this group of 10 comes in second, behind the second basemen. However, the 2007 earnings of this group beat every other position profiled thus far.

As a group, the market had to be pretty satisfied with this crop. However, Mora and Huff were more examples of someone holding his nose than a savvy play on the part of the buyer (As the guy who spent $7 for Mora in the Sportsline expert auction, I can tell you I was happy with the price and hoping for a $13-15 season from Mora.), while Longoria wouldn't have been eligible in most A.L.-only auctions that bought their players on or close to Opening Day.

Ten Most Expensive A.L. Third Basemen 2008
#
Player$Sal
+/-
AP
SW
2007
1Alex Rodriguez
$38$47-9
$42$43$53
2 (tie)
Chone Figgins
$19$29-10
$29$28$32

Carlos Guillen
$16$29-13
$24
$26$27
4Adrian Beltre
$21$22
-1
$20
$20
$26
5Alex Gordon$15$21-5$16$17$13
6Mike Lowell
$16$19-3$18$14$30
7Hank Blalock
$11
$18
-7
$14
$18
$10
8Evan Longoria$24$14+9R1$5
9Scott Rolen
$11
$14
-3
$12
$12
$10
10Aubrey Huff$32$13+20$14$10$14

Average
$20$22-2
$19$19$22

The Longoria gambit partially explains why the prices for Mora and Huff were so cheap. But it doesn't completely explain why.

Despite the fact that this group was paid as much as it earned in 2007, I can't shake the notion that on the whole this was an expensive group. I imagine this is because the players who got pay raises jump out at me much more than the players who got pay cuts.

Chone Figgins? He could earn $32 again, but people always discount speed.

A-Rod? A $6 pay cut for a $53 earner is actually quite conservative, and Patton and Sports Weekly apparently agree.

Mike Lowell? An $11 pay cut seems shocking, but even if you don't know from BABIP, Lowell's batting average and RBI in 2007 seemed rather fluky. A $19 price tag is more in line with his 2006 $17 season, and even gives his owners a little wiggle room.

The guys who get raises, on the other hand, are striking. Twenty-one dollars for Alex Gordon? Eighteen for Hank Blalock? Fourteen for Scott Rolen? These are some risky plays. Why make them?

It's because A-Rod, Figgins, and Beltre aren't all that cheap, even if they were cheaper than they were the year before.

The $22 average earnings from 2007 tells the market that this is a good place to drop its money based on past performance; each player bought from this group, on average, earned the equivalent of 1.75 players in 2007. A-Rod is a large part of that, yes, but we hadn't seen such a strong 3B crop in years.

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