Top 10 A.L. Outfielders 2008
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | 2007 |
| 1 | Grady Sizemore | $40 | $35 | +4 | $32 | $29 | $31 |
| 2 | Josh Hamilton | $38 | $20 | +17 | $25 | $14 | $15 |
| 3 | Ichiro Suzuki | $35 | $34 | +1 | $35 | $30 | $40 |
| 4 | Bobby Abreu | $34 | $29 | +4 | $27 | $29 | $28 |
| 5 | Alex Rios | $33 | $31 | +2 | $28 | $29 | $29 |
| 6 | Johnny Damon | $33 | $19 | +14 | $20 | $22 | $22 |
| 7 | Jacoby Ellsbury | $33 | $19 | +14 | $18 | $15 | $10 |
| 8 | B.J. Upton | $31 | $33 | -1 | $34 | $37 | $30 |
| 9 | Carlos Quentin | $31 | $6 | +25 | $5 | $7 | $2 |
| 10 | Jermaine Dye | $29 | $20 | +9 | $18 | $17 | $16 |
| Average | $34 | $25 | +9 | $24 | $23 | $22 |
Grady Sizemore isn't just the best outfielder in the American League; he's the best hitter, too. When I saw this, I assumed that this year's outfielders were going to earn less. But there isn't a $7 drop like there was last year from Suzuki to Nick Markakis, so this is once again a strong group of earners.
And, once again, they're an incredibly predictable group.
Hamilton, Damon, and Ellsbury are all nice bargains, but $19 is a lot to pay for a surprise. Only Quentin leaps off the page as a player who neither the market, Alex, or Sports Weekly saw coming down the pike.
Four of the 10 outfielders here were in 2007's Top 10, and with the exception of Suzuki, the market sees fit to give all of them raises. Now I find myself questioning my earlier assertion that the tout leagues have jumped back to Stage One. Thirty-five bucks for Sizemore seems realistic, and the two dollar raise for Rios also makes sense given his age and potential.
Alex does finally wake up here, beating the market on Hamilton, Suzuki, Damon and Upton. If you throw Sports Weekly into the mix, he only gets Hamilton and Suzuki, but maybe this is what he was saving his money for at the beginning. Build your team around Ichiro, and trade for the power you need later.
Ten Most Expensive A.L. Outfielders 2008
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | 2007 |
| 1 | Carl Crawford | $21 | $41 | -19 | $40 | $37 | $40 |
| 2 | Grady Sizemore | $40 | $35 | +4 | $32 | $29 | $31 |
| 3 | Ichiro Suzuki | $35 | $34 | +1 | $35 | $30 | $40 |
| 4 (tie) | B.J. Upton | $31 | $33 | -1 | $34 | $37 | $30 |
| Vladimir Guerrero | $28 | $33 | -4 | $32 | $32 | $32 | |
| 6 | Alex Rios | $33 | $31 | +2 | $28 | $29 | $29 |
| 7 | Nick Markakis | $28 | $30 | -1 | $30 | $31 | $32 |
| 8 | Bobby Abreu | $34 | $29 | +4 | $27 | $29 | $28 |
| 9 | Curtis Granderson | $23 | $29 | -6 | $25 | $28 | $32 |
| 10 | Torii Hunter | $27 | $27 | -1 | $24 | $22 | $31 |
| Average | $30 | $32 | -2 | $31 | $30 | $33 |
But when you look at the 10 best predicted hitters, Alex only nabs Ichiro, and we're right back to where we started with the problem I highligthed earlier. Alex isn't buying enough hitters.
Though, in this case, Alex is taking some pretty hefty swings. His $31 average prediction means that he isn't exactly telling you to bid lightly on these guys and wait for the next group of outfielders. And, with the next group of hitters, Alex finally catches up.
Next Ten (11-20) Most Expensive A.L. Outfielders 2008
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | 2007 |
| 11 | Manny Ramirez | $19 | $26 | -7 | $27 | $28 | $20 |
| 12 | Magglio Ordonez | $28 | $25 | +3 | $28 | $26 | $42 |
| 13 | Nick Swisher | $11 | $24 | -13 | $16 | $20 | $16 |
| 14 | Vernon Wells | $22 | $23 | -1 | $25 | $25 | $13 |
| 15 | Delmon Young | $22 | $22 | -1 | $24 | $24 | $21 |
| 16 (tie) | Hideki Matsui | $11 | $20 | -9 | $21 | $21 | $23 |
| Jermaine Dye | $29 | $20 | +9 | $18 | $17 | $16 | |
| Josh Hamilton | $38 | $20 | +17 | $25 | $14 | $15 | |
| 19 | Jacoby Ellsbury | $33 | $19 | +14 | $18 | $15 | $10 |
| 20 | Johnny Damon | $33 | $19 | +14 | $20 | $22 | $22 |
| Average | $25 | $22 | +3 | $22 | $21 | $20 |
In the three-way bidding war between the tout market and SW, Alex buys Mags and Hamilton and gets his share of Wells, Young, and Matsui.
Meanwhile, in case you haven't noticed, last year's 20 most expensive outfielders have turned a very small profit. These guys are supposed to lose money, but only Crawford and Swisher truly disappoint. Hamilton, Ellsbury and Damon turn a loss into a win, but this is still an impressive feat.
Next Eleven (21-31) Most Expensive A.L. Outfielders 2008
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | 2007 |
| 21 | Michael Cuddyer | $6 | $18 | -12 | $16 | $17 | $17 |
| 22 | Raul Ibanez | $27 | $18 | +9 | $18 | $16 | $22 |
| 23 | Adam Jones | $15 | $15 | 0 | $12 | $15 | $1 |
| 24 | Melky Cabrera | $9 | $14 | -5 | $12 | $11 | $16 |
| 25 | Coco Crisp | $18 | $14 | +4 | $6 | $6 | $19 |
| 26 | Mark Teahen | $12 | $13 | -2 | $11 | $15 | $16 |
| 27 | David DeJesus | $24 | $13 | +11 | $9 | $9 | $10 |
| 28 (tie) | J.D. Drew | $19 | $13 | +5 | $15 | $14 | $12 |
| Jose Guillen | $18 | $13 | +6 | $15 | $12 | $24 | |
| Jason Kubel | $17 | $13 | +4 | $7 | $8 | $13 | |
| Gary Matthews Jr. | $8 | $13 | -4 | $14 | $12 | $18 | |
| Average | $16 | $14 | +1 | $12 | $12 | $15 |
And these guys are still turning a profit 31 outfielders in.
This isn't impossible, but it typically isn't what happens. The market tends to overpay the stars and then rips off the next set of hitters. Barring that, they tend to underpay the stars and then overcompensate when it comes to the second tier guys.
And, compared to 2007, it's not like the market is being chintzy.
I didn't compile the average market price in last year's winter recap, but Alex predicted average earnings of $30, $22, and $14 in for the Top 30 outfielders (grouped in 10s). His predictions this year are kind of, sort of line with what they were in 2007.
And, once again, Alex is sort of rallying here against the market, even though the market is still spending more per player. He gets his share of Ibanez, and then gets Drew, Guillen, and (yuck) Matthews. Still, even with Matthews that wouldn't be a bad outfield.
We've taken quite a turn, though, from the days where Alex was telling us to spend, spend, spend on the top hitters and then wait for the bargains later on. Now he seems to be telling us to wait for your spots and avoid the stars unless they fall in your lap.
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