2009 A.L. Outfielders

For the second year in a row, this year's A.L. stud outfielders were dominated by hitters who can steal bases.

Top 10 A.L. Outfielders 2009

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	AP	SW	2008
1	Jacoby Ellsbury	$36	$31	+6	$29	$29	$33
2	Carl Crawford	$36	$36	0	$35	$33	$21
3	Ichiro Suzuki	$31	$30	+1	$30	$27	$35
4	Bobby Abreu	$28	$23	+6	$24	$27	$34
5	Adam Lind	$27	$13	+14	$14	$8	$10
6	Kendry Morales	$27	$8	+19	$8	$10	$1
7	Jason Bay	$26	$29	-2	$23	$24	$29
8	Shin-Soo Choo	$26	$18	+8	$18	$16	$19
9	Denard Span	$25	$17	+8	$17	$14	$18
10	Torii Hunter	$24	$23	+1	$23	$21	$27
	Average	$29	$23	+6	$22	$21	$23

Lind and Morales are the only hitters on this list who contributed almost nothing in steals; you can add Bay even though he stole 13 bases. Everyone else on this list contributed a fair chunk of value in SB, and the top three hitters weren't big ticket items because of what they provided elsewhere.

I had to go back and look at my 4x4 prices (something I haven't done yet in this series) and make sure that the price differences weren't being caused by a spike in the steal denominator. But it wasn't. Ellsbury and Crawford earned $5 more in 4x4, while everyone else except for Span and Suzuki gets a $3 raise in 4x4. Suzuki gets a mere $2 raise while Span breaks even (Raj Davis replaces Span in the Top 10 in 4x4, earning $26 versus the mere $23 he earned in 5x5).

I don't want to spend too much time lingering on the differences between 4x4 and 5x5. I only bring it up to emphasize how profitable these hitters were in comparison to last year's crop. Using the 2008 4x4 denominators, the 2008 hitters earned $34 per player. Using the 2009 4x4 denominators, the hitters above earned $32 per player. Both sets of hitters turned a similar profit, in other words.

Profit or no, this isn't a very surprising group. Spending $23 per player isn't cheap, and while there are more A.L. outfielders in this group this year that fell below $20 in salary, you're more likely than not to spend here if you want production.

Of course, spending didn't necessarily guarantee success.

Ten Most Expensive A.L. Outfielders 2009

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	AP	SW	2008
1	Grady Sizemore	$15	$41	-27	$38	$32	$40
2	Carl Crawford	$36	$36	0	$35	$33	$21
3	Josh Hamilton	$11	$35	-24	$30	$29	$38
4	B.J. Upton	$19	$35	-15	$34	$32	$31
5	Nick Markakis	$22	$33	-11	$30	$30	$28
6	Jacoby Ellsbury	$36	$31	+6	$29	$29	$33
7	Ichiro Suzuki	$31	$30	+1	$30	$27	$35
8	Matt Holliday	$14	$30	-16	$30	$29	$38
9	Alex Rios	$16	$29	-13	$29	$29	$33
10	Jason Bay	$26	$29	-2	$23	$24	$29
	Average	$23	$33	-10	$31	$29	$33

The flattening of values in 5x5 has something to do with it, but this group is a far more failure-oriented one than last year's 10 Cadillacs. A large part of that are the double-digit losses the market is taking here. In 2008, Crawford was the one mega-disappointment. Last year, Sizemore and Hamilton were incredibly disappointing, while Upton, Markakis, Holliday and Rios certainly didn't help.

If you weren't certain whether or not Sports Weekly's prices valued position scarcity, the answer lies in this chart. SW (who I suspect is really Matthew Pouliot of Rotoworld) is whupped by the market an average of $4 per player. This is similar to the beating SW took at first and third. But at catcher, second base and SS, SW comes closer to the market and beats Patton (on average).

The market buys all 10 of these players - either outright or in a tie with the touts. But - just like last year - Patton finally starts showing some signs of life in the OF. He ties the market on Ichiro and Holliday and ties both the market and SW on Rios.

Will Patton finally open the purse strings?

Next Ten Most Expensive (11-20) A.L. Outfielders 2009

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	AP	SW	2008
11	Vladimir Guerrero	$14	$28	-14	$27	$25	$28
12	Carlos Quentin	$10	$28	-18	$24	$24	$31
13	Curtis Granderson	$20	$27	-7	$27	$27	$23
14	Magglio Ordonez	$14	$25	-10	$28	$22	$28
15	Torii Hunter	$24	$23	+1	$23	$21	$27
16	Jermaine Dye	$14	$23	-9	$25	$20	$29
17	Bobby Abreu	$28	$23	+6	$24	$27	$34
18	Johnny Damon	$22	$22	+1	$23	$22	$33
19	Vernon Wells	$17	$20	-4	$22	$22	$22
20	Nelson Cruz	$22	$19	+3	$12	$13	$9
	Average	$19	$24	-5	$24	$22	$26

Yes he will.

Patton ties the market on average (he falls $3 short over all), and would have beaten the market outright if not for his relative distaste for Nelson Cruz.

He beats the market on Ordonez, Dye and Damon, while tying the market on Granderson and Hunter and SW on Wells. SW also ties on Granderson and wins Abreu outright (great call). The market only gets Vlad, Quentin and Cruz outright.

I commented last year that Patton wasn't tweaking his bids up on the best players like he used to do. I also commented that maybe he should. But the results this year seem to indicate the opposite.

There's certainly more reward in the most expensive group of outfielders...but there's also almost as much risk. The market paid the 10 most expensive as much as they earned (in 4x4) in 2008 again last year, while this bracket got a $2 pay cut per player. They still disappointed as a group, but it's less likely that you crashed and burned with a hitter in this bracket as you did in the first one.

Next Ten Most Expensive (21-30) A.L. Outfielders 2009

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	AP	SW	2008
21	Adam Jones	$22	$19	+3	$12	$17	$15
22	Pat Burrell	$6	$19	-13	$16	$10	$18
23	Shin-Soo Choo	$26	$18	+8	$18	$16	$19
24	Coco Crisp	$5	$18	-12	$20	$18	$18
25	Xavier Nady	$1	$17	-17	$17	$12	$26
26	Denard Span	$25	$17	+8	$17	$14	$18
27	Carlos Gomez	$7	$17	-10	$23	$12	$22
28	David DeJesus	$15	$15	0	$18	$11	$24
29	Delmon Young	$12	$15	-3	$18	$6	$22
30	Jason Kubel	$22	$14	+9	$12	$9	$17
	Average	$14	$17	-3	$17	$13	$20

If you hadn't come to this conclusion already, it's clear that the market is either overspending on the top outfielders or the top outfielders were incredibly disappointing. Either way, the third tier of OF is the most successful of the three tiers profiled here, returning 82 cents on the dollar to the first group's 70 cents and the second group's 79 cents.

As a group. Hitter by hitter, these guys are all over the place. The headlines here are wonderful if you got Choo, Span, or Kubel, miserable if you got stuck with Burrell, Crisp, Nady, or Gomez.

Patton's prices seem to advocate spending your money in the OF and skimping everywhere else. On this go round, he gets Crisp, Gomez, DeJesus and Young outright while tying the market or SW on Choo, Nady, and Span.

As a pricer, so far he's bought or tied (signified with an *) on:

Catchers: None
First Base/Third Base: Aubrey Huff, Mike Jacobs*, Paul Konerko, Melvin Mora*, Mike Lowell, Ty Wigginton.
Second Base/Shortstop: Placido Polanco*, Orlando Cabrera.
Outfield: Ichiro Suzuki*, Matt Holliday*, Alex Rios*, Curtis Granderson*, Magglio Ordonez, Torii Hunter*, Jermaine Dye, Johnny Damon, Vernon Wells*, Shin-Soo Choo*, Coco Crisp, Xavier Nady*, Denard Span*, Carlos Gomez, David DeJesus, Delmon Young.

If viewed as a strategy, this is a gritty Stage Three play that advises keeping your money close to the vest and spending most of your offensive dollars in the OF.

I'm less interested in the results here as I am in the pricing. Patton can theoretically buy all of these players if he keeps his league budget at $3,120, which he almost always does come April.

But you can't. If you're following Patton's recommendations, and the rest of your league stays closer to the market, chances are you're going to wind up with an OF/CO heavy team.

There's nothing wrong with that. But I generally like the cheap OF/CO at the bottom of the heap better than I do the cheap MI that are usually on the roster for depth and little else.