Ten Most Expensive N.L. Starting Pitchers 2008
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | '07 |
| 1 | Johan Santana | $37 | $40 | -3 | $37 | $41 | $33 |
| 2 | Jake Peavy | $24 | $33 | -10 | $34 | $32 | $43 |
| 3 | Brandon Webb | $33 | $29 | +4 | $32 | $25 | $33 |
| 4 | Dan Haren | $30 | $25 | +5 | $22 | $20 | $29 |
| 5 | Cole Hamels | $33 | $24 | +9 | $29 | $24 | $27 |
| 6 | Roy Oswalt | $27 | $24 | +3 | $25 | $18 | $21 |
| 7 (tie) | Aaron Harang | -$1 | $21 | -21 | $28 | $20 | $27 |
| Carlos Zambrano | $16 | $21 | -5 | $24 | $22 | $18 | |
| 9 (tie) | Chris Young | $8 | $20 | -12 | $23 | $21 | $24 |
| John Smoltz | $6 | $20 | -14 | $20 | $22 | $27 | |
| Average | $21 | $26 | -4 | $27 | $25 | $28 |
The money was certainly there. But, compared to last year, the earnings fell a little flat.
Top 10 Predicted N.L. Starting Pitchers 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | AVG Cost | +/- | 2006 |
| 1 | Roy Oswalt | $21 | $28 | -7 | $33 |
| 2 | Jake Peavy | $43 | $27 | +16 | $17 |
| 3 | Brandon Webb | $34 | $26 | +8 | $35 |
| 4 | Carlos Zambrano | $19 | $25 | -6 | $24 |
| 5 | Ben Sheets | $16 | $23 | -7 | $13 |
| 6 | John Smoltz | $28 | $21 | +7 | $29 |
| 7 | Matt Cain | $14 | $18 | -4 | $16 |
| 8 | Brett Myers | $18 | $18 | +0 | $16 |
| 9 | Chris Young | $24 | $18 | +6 | $24 |
| 10 | Chris Carpenter | -$1 | $18 | -19 | $37 |
| Average | $22 | $22 | -1 | $24 |
Then again, these pitchers weren't as good in 2006. Only six of the 10 most expensive in 2007 cracked the $20 barrier in 2006, while only Zambrano didn't crack $20 in 2007. We expected more because these pitchers were better.
And the first six pitchers on the 2008 list didn't disappoint. Santana lost money, but it's hard to complain about a $37 season. Peavy lost double digits, but a $24 season isn't a total loss; in fact, only 11 starting pitchers earned more than Peavy in 2008.
Patton goes all out for these pitchers. In a three-way battle with the market, he gets Peavy, Webb, Hamels, Oswalt, Harang, Zambrano, and Young. Sports Weekly gets Santana and Smoltz. The market's only buy here is Haren.
Despite the losses, should you follow Patton's lead and invest in this group?
It obviously depends on who you bought. Since your team only has nine pitching slots and $260, you're not going to buy seven pitchers like Patton does. If you stopped at Peavy and Webb, you bought $57 worth of stats for $62. Not great, but maybe you get lucky later on. If you bought Peavy and Harang instead, not so good. Now you've got $23 worth of stats for $54. If you don't get lucky much later with someone like Ryan Dempster or Ricky Nolasco, you're probably not going to win.
Still, it paid to spend your money early last year.
Next Ten (11-20) Most Expensive N.L. Starting Pitchers 2008
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | '07 |
| 11 | Tim Lincecum | $37 | $19 | +18 | $16 | $14 | $9 |
| 12 (tie) | Yovani Gallardo | $3 | $19 | -16 | $16 | $14 | $12 |
| Rich Hill | $0 | $19 | -19 | $12 | $13 | $17 | |
| 14 | John Maine | $9 | $18 | -10 | $15 | $11 | $18 |
| 15 (tie) | Matt Cain | $10 | $18 | -8 | $20 | $19 | $14 |
| Brett Myers | $5 | $18 | -13 | $12 | $16 | $18 | |
| 17 (tie) | Chad Billingsley | $22 | $17 | +6 | $16 | $14 | $16 |
| Ian Snell | -$16 | $17 | -33 | $11 | $12 | $12 | |
| 19 | Ben Sheets | $27 | $15 | +12 | $19 | $15 | $16 |
| 20 | Adam Wainwright | $19 | $15 | +4 | $12 | $9 | $14 |
| Average | $12 | $18 | -6 | $15 | $14 | $15 |
These guys are $8 cheaper per pitcher but also earn $9 less. That sounds like a wash, but it's only a 67% rate of return (12/18) versus a 81% ROI (21/26) on the first group. Despite the cheaper investment, five of these pitchers lose in double digits (as opposed to four in the top 10).
Patton's an old hand who knows this. He only beats the market and SW on Cain and Sheets. The market gets every other pitcher. SW is shutout.
Compared to '07, the market goes ga-ga for these pitchers, paying them $3 more per pitcher than they earned in 2007. Only Sheets gets a paycut; everyone else gets paid $1 or more than they earned in 2007.
There's something to be said for spreading your risk. But for the second year in a row, these guys do nothing but take it on the chin.
Next Ten (21-30) Most Expensive N.L. Starting Pitchers 2008
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | '07 |
| 21 | Pedro Martinez | -$7 | $15 | -22 | $18 | $17 | $4 |
| 22 | Brad Penny | -$9 | $14 | -23 | $18 | $12 | $25 |
| 23 | Ted Lilly | $20 | $14 | +6 | $15 | $16 | $24 |
| 24 (tie) | Tim Hudson | $21 | $14 | +7 | $21 | $15 | $26 |
| Oliver Perez | $6 | $14 | -7 | $11 | $11 | $18 | |
| 26 | Jeff Francis | -$5 | $12 | -18 | $8 | $6 | $13 |
| 27 | Derek Lowe | $29 | $12 | +17 | $15 | $11 | $16 |
| 28 | Bronson Arroyo | $5 | $11 | -6 | $9 | $10 | $5 |
| 29 | Tom Gorzelanny | -$16 | $11 | -27 | $7 | $8 | $12 |
| 30 | Hiroki Kuroda | $16 | $8 | +7 | $6 | $8 | |
| Average | $6 | $13 | -7 | $13 | $11 | $14 |
Now the evidence for spending your money on a top gun looks even stronger. The market gives these guys a $1 paycut, and is more conservative, buying Perez, Francis, Arroyo, Gorzo and part of Kuroda. SW gets Lilly and its share of Kuroda. Patton bounces back and recommends Pedro, Penny, Hudson and Lowe.
If you bought Lowe it's pretty easy to feel good about yourself. More often than not, though, you were getting clobbered here. Four of these pitchers earned negative dollars, and three of those pitchers lost $20 or more on their investments.
This isn't the bottom of the barrel. You expect better.
But the profits have to be coming soon, right?
Next Ten (31-40) Most Expensive N.L. Starting Pitchers 2008
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | '07 |
| 31 (tie) | Randy Johnson | $15 | $8 | +7 | $10 | $9 | $7 |
| Barry Zito | -$7 | $8 | -15 | $8 | $6 | $7 | |
| 33 | Greg Maddux | $12 | $8 | +4 | $11 | $6 | $16 |
| 34 | Homer Bailey | -$12 | $7 | -19 | $2 | $3 | -$2 |
| 35 (tie) | Ubaldo Jimenez | $8 | $6 | +2 | $5 | $4 | $4 |
| Micah Owings | -$3 | $6 | -10 | $3 | $2 | $8 | |
| 37 | Wandy Rodriguez | $12 | $6 | +7 | $4 | $2 | $6 |
| 38 (tie) | Dave Bush | $15 | $5 | +10 | $4 | $5 | $1 |
| Johnny Cueto | $1 | $5 | -4 | $6 | $2 | ||
| Andrew Miller | -$9 | $5 | -14 | $4 | $2 | -$5 | |
| Average | $3 | $6 | -3 | $6 | $4 | $4 |
No.
But I'll give the market credit. This group's 2007 counterparts cost $9 per pitcher. The market has decided to spend its money on hitters instead (which explains Patton's shortfall in that area). And can you blame them? Only four of these pitchers earn double digits, and only one (Bush) turns a double-digit profit. Even with the market being cute and paring back, they still lose money.
Patton buys Johnson, Zito and his share of Maddux, but eventually cries uncle. And why shouldn't he? He's spent his money on some of the bigger names at the top of the heap. In a real auction, you'd probably have bought one or two of his big names and then gone fishing in the endgame. Given how badly these pitchers do, you're better off spending $60 on Webb and Hamels and rounding out your staff with filler. That's what FAAB is for, right?
But the market is stuck spending its money. They pulled up short at the beginning, and they have to blow their $3380 on someone. Since they came up light on the top pitchers, they have to express their preferences here. And it's not pretty.
These losses continue in the next group.
Next Ten (41-50) Most Expensive N.L. Starting Pitchers 2008
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | '07 |
| 41 (tie) | Shawn Hill | -$9 | $5 | -14 | $4 | $1 | $11 |
| Scott Olsen | $8 | $5 | +4 | $4 | $2 | -$18 | |
| 43 (tie) | Manny Parra | $1 | $4 | -4 | $7 | $3 | $0 |
| Randy Wolf | $8 | $4 | +4 | $6 | $3 | $3 | |
| 45 (tie) | Jason Bergmann | -$6 | $3 | -9 | $2 | $7 | |
| Chris Carpenter | $2 | $3 | -1 | $7 | -$1 | ||
| Chuck James | -$8 | $3 | -12 | $7 | $5 | $8 | |
| 48 | Franklin Morales | -$4 | $3 | -7 | $4 | $1 | $5 |
| 49 (tie) | Jeff Suppan | -$4 | $3 | -7 | $5 | $0 | |
| Edinson Volquez | $23 | $3 | +20 | $3 | $1 | ||
| Average | $1 | $4 | -3 | $5 | $2 | $2 |
Volquez is what you want when you go fishing here. But it looks like there's only a one-in-ten chance that you'll step in clover. The rest of these guys - while not big losers - are still losers.
And now we see only a two-way battle between Patton and the market. Sports Weekly only bothers to price 103 pitchers with a bid of $1 or more. Apparently, they're going to take their ball and go home.
The problem is that you and I need 117 pitchers for our leagues. It's easy for SW to cry uncle. But we have to buy someone.
And Patton's prices here are higher simply because he prefers this group of guys to the previous group. Some of that is because the tout leagues auction earlier, and Patton has more information than they do. But a large part of it is that because guys like Wolf and Suppan aren't sexy, but the hope is that they'll put up neutral innings. Wolf does, Suppan doesn't.
Shouldn't there be huge profits at the bottom?
Next Ten (51-60) Most Expensive N.L. Starting Pitchers 2008
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | '07 |
| 51 (tie) | Kevin Correia | -$14 | $2 | -17 | $1 | $1 | $7 |
| Aaron Cook | $16 | $2 | +13 | $3 | $1 | $8 | |
| Doug Davis | -$1 | $2 | -4 | $3 | $1 | ||
| Jonathan Sanchez | -$1 | $2 | -3 | $1 | $1 | -$6 | |
| 55 (tie) | Tom Glavine | -$6 | $2 | -8 | $4 | $3 | $6 |
| Jair Jurrjens | $14 | $2 | +12 | $1 | $1 | $3 | |
| Kyle Kendrick | -$7 | $2 | -9 | $1 | $2 | $12 | |
| 58 (tie) | Clayton Kershaw | $1 | $2 | -1 | R5 | ||
| Paul Maholm | $14 | $2 | +13 | $2 | $1 | -$0 | |
| 60 | Zach Duke | -$6 | $1 | -7 | $2 | -$12 | |
| Average | $1 | $2 | -1 | $2 | $1 | $2 |
Nope. Even Jurrjens and Cook can't save this group.
If you're wondering why every single one of these groupings of pitchers takes a loss, there are a lot of possible explanations. The relievers will turn a profit. Some of these pitchers aren't in the typical auction pool used to determine valuation. Homer Bailey, Jason Bergmann, and Kevin Correia all didn't make my list of 117 pitchers who were typically bought in auctions in 2008. Take out three more successful pitchers (like Ryan Franklin, Mike Gonzalez, and Chris Sampson) who I did include, and the values of these pitchers would go up.
There's more to it than that, though. We didn't even get to Ryan Dempster and Ricky Nolasco.
Nolasco was bought in one of the three expert leagues (LABR), giving him an average salary of $0 (33 cents). He earned $29. Ryan Dempster was purchased in Sportsline and Tout Wars for $1, giving him a $1 (67 cent) average salary. He earned $30.
If I listed all 117 pitchers in my calculation, the total dollars earned would come very close to $1104 ($78 x 13 teams). You can take a loss on every group of pitchers, though, if the market goes past that.
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