Top 10 N.L. Outfielders 2009
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | '08 |
| 1 | Ryan Braun | $40 | $41 | -1 | $30 | $35 | $33 |
| 2 | Matt Kemp | $37 | $35 | +2 | $31 | $26 | $33 |
| 3 | Michael Bourn | $33 | $9 | +24 | $16 | $14 | $16 |
| 4 | Jayson Werth | $31 | $20 | +10 | $19 | $15 | $25 |
| 5 | Justin Upton | $30 | $17 | +13 | $16 | $21 | $8 |
| 6 | Nyjer Morgan | $27 | $4 | +24 | $5 | $4 | $6 |
| 7 | Shane Victorino | $26 | $28 | -1 | $25 | $22 | $30 |
| 8 | Carlos Lee | $26 | $32 | -7 | $27 | $28 | $29 |
| 9 | Andre Ethier | $25 | $24 | +1 | $22 | $18 | $24 |
| 10 | Raul Ibanez | $25 | $21 | +4 | $20 | $21 | $27 |
| Average | $30 | $23 | +7 | $21 | $20 | $23 |
But only a little. The 10 best outfielders in 2008 earned 23% more than what they were paid (32/26) while last year's outfielders were 30% better.
Part of that is the unpredictability of speed and owners not wanting to pay for said speed. This is one area where the touts were more aggressive than the market; Patton's two wins here are on Bourn and Morgan. The market seemed afraid that Bourn would simply disappear.
Another reason these hitters are cheaper is that it seems like there weren't as much $30+ buys (3) as there were in 2008 (5). Was the market indeed a little stingier when it came to the OF in 2009?
Ten Most Expensive N.L. Outfielders 2009
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | '08 |
| 1 | Ryan Braun | $40 | $41 | -1 | $30 | $35 | $33 |
| 2 | Carlos Beltran | $18 | $35 | -17 | $30 | $30 | $35 |
| 3 | Matt Kemp | $37 | $35 | +2 | $31 | $26 | $33 |
| 4 | Alfonso Soriano | $14 | $33 | -19 | $27 | $30 | $28 |
| 5 | Carlos Lee | $26 | $32 | -7 | $27 | $28 | $29 |
| 6 | Manny Ramirez | $16 | $31 | -14 | $27 | $30 | $39 |
| 7 | Nate McLouth | $22 | $29 | -8 | $30 | $23 | $30 |
| 8 | Shane Victorino | $26 | $28 | -1 | $25 | $22 | $30 |
| 9 | Corey Hart | $14 | $26 | -11 | $25 | $24 | $26 |
| 10 | Hunter Pence | $24 | $25 | -1 | $24 | $23 | $22 |
| Average | $24 | $32 | -8 | $28 | $27 | $31 |
No, they were not. Both groups of outfielders earned $31 per player the prior year, but the 2009 OF managed to work out a $1 per player raise from the market.
Both Patton and Sports Weekly took a dimmer view of this group and - as a result - almost get shut out in a three-way battle against the market. Patton buys McLouth while Sports Weekly gets shut out entirely.
Unlike last year, there are a decent amount of double-digit losers, while Kemp is the only OF here that turns a profit. The result is that these hitters only return 75 cents on the dollar (compared to the 87 cents on the dollar the 2008 Cadillacs gave back to their owners. Would you have been better off holding the line like Patton and Sports Weekly did and waiting?
Next Ten Most Expensive (11-20) N.L. Outfielders 2009
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | '08 |
| 11 | Andre Ethier | $25 | $24 | +1 | $22 | $18 | $24 |
| 12 | Jay Bruce | $11 | $23 | -12 | $17 | $21 | $13 |
| 13 | Chris Young | $9 | $23 | -14 | $19 | $20 | $19 |
| 14 | Brad Hawpe | $21 | $22 | -1 | $22 | $18 | $21 |
| 15 | Ryan Ludwick | $19 | $22 | -3 | $23 | $18 | $32 |
| 16 | Raul Ibanez | $25 | $21 | +4 | $20 | $21 | $27 |
| 17 | Jayson Werth | $31 | $20 | +10 | $19 | $15 | $25 |
| 18 | Adam Dunn | $24 | $20 | +4 | $22 | $20 | $21 |
| 19 | Lastings Milledge | $7 | $18 | -11 | $21 | $20 | $21 |
| 20 | Justin Upton | $30 | $17 | +13 | $16 | $21 | $8 |
| Average | $20 | $21 | -1 | $20 | $19 | $21 |
This group of outfielders earns $4 less per player but also costs $11 less. They nearly offer a 1:1 return per player, so it's hard to argue that these guys aren't the better group of hitters to be chasing.
Patton and Sports Weekly close in on the market here but still lag behind. Patton ties the market on Hawpe and gets Ludwick, Dunn, and Milledge. SW ties on Ibanez and makes an aggressively great call on Upton. The market gets Ethier, Bruce, Young, and Werth outright.
The National League OF seem to fall into a similar pattern with their A.L. counterparts. The bottom five OF in this bracket (16-20) are generally a more success oriented sort than the OF at the top (11-15). They earn $23 per player while costing $19 apiece; even with Milledge included in their number, there seems to be a trend in both leagues that rewards patience and punishes the big spenders.
Or does there?
Next Ten Most Expensive (21-30) N.L. Outfielders 2009
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | '08 |
| 21 | Milton Bradley | $10 | $16 | -6 | $17 | $15 | $26 |
| 22 | Elijah Dukes | $9 | $16 | -7 | $12 | $14 | $14 |
| 23 | Rick Ankiel | $7 | $16 | -9 | $16 | $16 | $17 |
| 24 | Willy Taveras | $11 | $15 | -5 | $24 | $18 | $29 |
| 25 | Randy Winn | $13 | $14 | -1 | $18 | $13 | $27 |
| 26 | Fred Lewis | $8 | $14 | -6 | $21 | $8 | $18 |
| 27 | Mike Cameron | $17 | $13 | +4 | $15 | $14 | $20 |
| 28 | Cody Ross | $20 | $12 | +9 | $14 | $6 | $17 |
| 29 | Jeremy Hermida | $11 | $12 | -1 | $14 | $12 | $12 |
| 30 | Ryan Spilborghs | $10 | $12 | -1 | $14 | $9 | $12 |
| Average | $12 | $14 | -2 | $17 | $13 | $19 |
While there aren't any double-digit losers on this chart, this can't make any of you Stage Three penny-pinchers out there happy. Not all $7 losses are created equal; while McLouth's $22 season returns 76 cents on the dollar, Dukes' $9 season only returns 56 cents.
If there is any upside here, it is that owners who spend their money here got something back. There aren't any $15 buys who earned $0-3 and provided nothing or next to nothing for their owners. I realize that is of small comfort to the owners who bought Dukes, Ankiel or Lewis, but it is something.
After looking at chart after chart, we've finally found the place where Patton wants to spend his money.
He blows the market away - spending an average of $3 per player more than they do on this crop. In a three-way battle with the market and SW he cleans up, getting Bradley, Taveras, Winn, Lewis, Cameron, Ross, Hermida, and Spilborghs. The market gets Dukes and all three tie on Ankiel.
This is the first time that Patton has beaten the market on price; he hasn't even been coming within a $1 per player anywhere else. In a real world auction environment, Patton winds up with a solid $80-100 OF and a lot of scrambling to fill in everywhere else.
SW, meanwhile, is either going to be way out in front on pitchers or will have left a ton of money on the table for the second year in a row.
Most Expensive N.L. Hitters by Position 2009
| Position | $ | Sal | AP | SW |
| Catcher | $1oo | $155 | $142 | $135 |
| First Base | $243 | $284 | $257 | $227 |
| Second Base | $165 | $184 | $156 | $155 |
| Shortstop | $201 | $257 | $232 | $228 |
| Third Base | $184 | $217 | $204 | $191 |
| Outfield #1 | $237 | $315 | $276 | $271 |
| Outfield #2 | $202 | $210 | $201 | $192 |
| Outfield #3 | $116 | $140 | $165 | $125 |
| Totals | $1448 | $1762 | $1633 | $1524 |
Wow. Throughout this entire series, I've been wondering what Patton and SW have been doing. Maybe I should have spent more time wondering about the market.
You can't expect the most expensive bets to match their earnings from last year, so from that standpoint the market can't be blamed for overspending and getting burned. But overshooting the mark by over $300 - or $3.92 per player - seems like a lot.
Another way of looking at this is that there are still $827 worth of stats to grab and the market about $513 to spend.
Of course, this assumes that they'll spend $175 per team.
Spending by N.L. Expert League, 2009
| League | Hitter $ | Pit $ | % Hit |
| CBS (12 team) | $2097 | $1021 | 67% |
| LABR | $2299 | $1080 | 68% |
| Tout Wars | $2302 | $1071 | 68% |
| Totals | $6698 | $3172 | 68% |
| Recommended | $2275 | $1105 | 67% |
They almost are, exactly. CBS is the only 12-team league here; they actually fall $3 short of Patton's hitting/pitching formula split. LABR goes $24 over while Tout Wars goes $27 over.
This doesn't explain away a $300+ gap. Regardless of the results on a player-by-player basis, I like Patton's approach. Wait until prices come down into the high teens/low twenties and start buying. The market has been overspending at the top for two years running; if your league mirrors the market, you will get some bargains eventually.
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