The only change I'm making in the charts is that I'm using 5x5 values for the 2008 column as well as for 2009. This gives us a better idea of how each pitcher listed below did from year to year. The drawback to this approach is that it makes the data from last year's charts look inconsistent.
Ten Most Expensive N.L. Starting Pitchers 2009
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | '08 (5x5) |
| 1 | Tim Lincecum | $38 | $34 | +4 | $30 | $31 | $37 |
| 2 | Johan Santana | $21 | $34 | -13 | $34 | $36 | $34 |
| 3 | Cole Hamels | $13 | $30 | -17 | $30 | $29 | $32 |
| 4 | Brandon Webb | -$1 | $30 | -31 | $30 | $28 | $30 |
| 5 | Dan Haren | $33 | $27 | +6 | $27 | $25 | $30 |
| 6 | Jake Peavy | $10 | $26 | -16 | $30 | $26 | $24 |
| 7 | Roy Oswalt | $13 | $23 | -10 | $24 | $19 | $26 |
| 8 | Javier Vazquez | $35 | $22 | +13 | $14 | $16 | $16 |
| 9 | Chad Billingsley | $16 | $21 | -6 | $18 | $21 | $24 |
| 10 | Yovani Gallardo | $19 | $20 | -1 | $14 | $17 | $3 |
| Average | $20 | $27 | -7 | $25 | $25 | $26 |
In actuality, the 10 most expensive pitchers in 2008 earned $22 per pitcher in 5x5 (as opposed to the $21 they earned in 4x4). It's a small difference, but it matters. As a result, 2009's most expensive pitchers were definitely all over the place compared to 2008.
Ten Most Expensive N.L. Starting Pitchers 2008
(converted to 5x5 $ for '08)
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | '07 |
| 1 | Johan Santana | $34 | $40 | -6 | $37 | $41 | $33 |
| 2 | Jake Peavy | $24 | $33 | -10 | $34 | $32 | $43 |
| 3 | Brandon Webb | $30 | $29 | +1 | $32 | $25 | $33 |
| 4 | Dan Haren | $30 | $25 | +5 | $22 | $20 | $29 |
| 5 | Cole Hamels | $32 | $24 | +7 | $29 | $24 | $27 |
| 6 | Roy Oswalt | $26 | $24 | +2 | $25 | $18 | $21 |
| 7 (tie) | Aaron Harang | $8 | $21 | -13 | $28 | $20 | $27 |
| Carlos Zambrano | $17 | $21 | -4 | $24 | $22 | $18 | |
| 9 (tie) | Chris Young | $10 | $20 | -10 | $23 | $21 | $24 |
| John Smoltz | $5 | $20 | -15 | $20 | $22 | $27 | |
| Average | $22 | $26 | -4 | $27 | $25 | $28 |
Fifteen starting pitchers cracked $20 in 5x5 in 2008 and the top six pitchers on this list all fit that description. By point of comparison, 14 pitchers earned $20 or more in 2009 and only four were also among the 10 most expensive.
But the surprise in the 2009 chart isn't the earnings; it is the fluctuation across the board.
2008's crop was pretty reliable at the top. Even if you got stuck with Peavy, you still got a $20+ pitcher. If you cracked $26 last year, you only had a 50-50 chance of getting a $20+ pitcher back.
For all of this relative unpredictability, this group had more $20+ starters than any other group of 10 pitchers.
Top Ten N.L. Starting Pitchers 2009
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | '08 (5x5) |
| 1 | Tim Lincecum | $38 | $34 | +4 | $30 | $31 | $37 |
| 2 | Javier Vazquez | $35 | $22 | +13 | $14 | $16 | $16 |
| 3 | Dan Haren | $33 | $27 | +6 | $27 | $25 | $30 |
| 4 | Chris Carpenter | $33 | $8 | +25 | $11 | $11 | $2 |
| 5 | Adam Wainwright | $32 | $18 | +14 | $15 | $16 | $17 |
| 6 | Josh Johnson | $26 | $17 | +9 | $17 | $13 | $9 |
| 7 | Matt Cain | $26 | $17 | +9 | $14 | $18 | $16 |
| 8 | Jair Jurrjens | $26 | $11 | +15 | $11 | $8 | $16 |
| 9 | Ted Lilly | $25 | $15 | +9 | $16 | $15 | $22 |
| 10 | Wandy Rodriguez | $25 | $9 | +16 | $8 | $5 | $15 |
| Average | $30 | $18 | +12 | $16 | $16 | $18 |
Once again, this is a chart that isn't the best of news for the bottom feeders.
You had to spend at least $8 to even have a chance at a Top 10 starter last year, and most of these starters went for $15 or more. Fifteen dollars sounds like a great way to buy an ace, but that's nothing but hindsight talking; if you spent your money like a lot of teams do, that's a good 18% chunk of your pitching budget wrapped up in a pitcher who may or may not pitch like an ace.
The market wasn't quite as generous with these pitchers as they were with the most expensive ones, but on the whole they did manage to break even on these pitchers. Patton and Sports Weekly either couldn't or wouldn't keep up. In a three-way battle with the market, Patton only buys Lilly outright. SW grabbed Cain. Patton and SW tied the market or each other on Haren, Carpenter, Johnson and Jurrjens, which means that the market bought Lincecum, Vazquez, Wainwright and Rodriguez outright.
Adding the expensive pitchers that didn't pay off, Patton bought Peavy and Oswalt and tied the market on Hamels and Webb. SW got Santana and tied on Billingsley.
Before compiling these charts, I had assumed that the market was going to slow down when it came to pitchers. But that doesn't seem to be the case.
To be sure, Patton and SW are both offering a little more play money for some of the best expected pitchers than for some of the best expected hitters. But they're still falling short.
Will Patton and SW open their purse strings? If so, what's left for them to buy?
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