Next Ten (11-20) Most Expensive N.L. Starting Pitchers 2009
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | '08 |
| 11 | Ricky Nolasco | $14 | $19 | -5 | $19 | $15 | $28 |
| 12 | Rich Harden | $13 | $19 | -6 | $16 | $12 | $29 |
| 13 | Derek Lowe | $5 | $19 | -13 | $18 | $12 | $26 |
| 14 | Edinson Volquez | $4 | $19 | -15 | $20 | $14 | $25 |
| 15 | Adam Wainwright | $32 | $18 | +14 | $15 | $16 | $17 |
| 16 | Brett Myers | $3 | $17 | -15 | $11 | $7 | $11 |
| 17 | Josh Johnson | $26 | $17 | +9 | $17 | $13 | $9 |
| 18 | Matt Cain | $26 | $17 | +9 | $14 | $18 | $16 |
| 19 | Carlos Zambrano | $12 | $16 | -3 | $17 | $19 | $17 |
| 20 | Aaron Harang | $8 | $16 | -8 | $14 | $11 | $6 |
| Average | $14 | $18 | -3 | $16 | $14 | $18 |
The market is still way ahead on these pitchers - and even more so than they were on the Cadillacs. Patton grabs Volquez and ties the market on Nolasco and Johnson, while Sports Weekly grabs Cain and Zambrano. The market gets the other five pitchers here outright.
Which group of pitchers do you like better: the 10 most expensive (from my last post) or this group?
The 10 most expensive earn more per pitcher, but this group returns a little bit more on the dollar than the Top 10. There are some bigger duds here, but you have almost as good a chance of landing a Top 10 starter here as you did in the top group.
Next Ten (21-30) Most Expensive N.L. Starting Pitchers 2009
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | '08 |
| 21 | Ted Lilly | $25 | $15 | +9 | $16 | $15 | $22 |
| 22 | Ryan Dempster | $17 | $15 | +2 | $20 | $15 | $29 |
| 23 | Chris Young | $1 | $14 | -13 | $14 | $15 | $10 |
| 24 | Max Scherzer | $13 | $13 | -0 | $16 | $12 | $6 |
| 25 | Clayton Kershaw | $21 | $12 | +9 | $15 | $9 | $5 |
| 26 | Johnny Cueto | $10 | $11 | -1 | $9 | $12 | $9 |
| 27 | Randy Johnson | $6 | $11 | -5 | $10 | $10 | $19 |
| 28 | Jair Jurrjens | $26 | $11 | +15 | $11 | $8 | $16 |
| 29 | Oliver Perez | -$6 | $10 | -17 | $7 | $8 | $13 |
| 30 | Hiroki Kuroda | $13 | $9 | +3 | $9 | $10 | $16 |
| Average | $13 | $12 | 0 | $13 | $11 | $15 |
And these guys manage to turn a tiny profit; something not a single group of 10 N.L. starting pitchers could do in 2008.
This is an especially impressive achievement when you factor in Young and Perez's losses. This group manages to earn almost as much as the 11-20 bracket for $6 less per pitcher.
Patton is all over these guys. He outpaces the market and Sports Weekly on average. Pitcher for pitcher, he grabs Lilly, Dempster, Scherzer and Kershaw and ties the market on Jurrjens. Sports Weekly gets Young, Cueto and Kuroda. The market can only manage to grab Johnson and Perez outright.
We're finally seeing the market running out of money...and in a place where having a little extra cash to make your preferences known wouldn't be such a bad thing.
Next Ten (31-40) Most Expensive N.L. Starting Pitchers 2009
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | '08 |
| 31 | Wandy Rodriguez | $25 | $9 | +16 | $8 | $5 | $15 |
| 32 | Ubaldo Jimenez | $24 | $9 | +15 | $11 | $6 | $14 |
| 33 | Mike Pelfrey | $1 | $9 | -8 | $11 | $7 | $14 |
| 34 | John Maine | $6 | $8 | -2 | $12 | $8 | $12 |
| 35 | Paul Maholm | $5 | $8 | -3 | $7 | $2 | $16 |
| 36 | Chris Carpenter | $33 | $8 | +25 | $11 | $11 | $2 |
| 37 | Ian Snell | -$3 | $8 | -10 | $5 | $3 | -$4 |
| 38 | Kenshin Kawakami | $9 | $7 | +3 | $3 | $5 | |
| 39 | Manny Parra | -$7 | $6 | -13 | $7 | $5 | $8 |
| 40 | Tommy Hanson | $18 | $6 | +12 | R1 | $2 | |
| Average | $11 | $8 | +4 | $8 | $5 | $8 |
This group not only turns a profit, but a relatively strong one given the modest $8 investment. This seems like a bloc of haves and have nots; Rodriguez, Jimenez, and Carpenter really make these guys stand out.
Still, this is a testament to how waiting and picking your spots last year on the hill might have worked. What's striking is that SW clearly is going to leave money on the table. They're $3 short per pitcher here and would only wind up with their share of Carpenter. They underspent on the pitchers and the hitters. For the second year in a row, if you walked into an auction with their values and their values alone, you were probably crying in your beer after your auction.
I'm amazed at how last year every group of starting pitchers lost money and this year we're seeing profits. Can that hold?
Next Ten (41-50) Most Expensive N.L. Starting Pitchers 2009
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | '08 |
| 41 | Jonathan Sanchez | $11 | $6 | +6 | $6 | $4 | $7 |
| 42 | Chris Volstad | $3 | $6 | -3 | $7 | $4 | $9 |
| 43 | Randy Wolf | $24 | $5 | +19 | $5 | $1 | $13 |
| 44 | Bronson Arroyo | $17 | $5 | +12 | $11 | $6 | $11 |
| 45 | David Bush | -$2 | $5 | -7 | $12 | $4 | $16 |
| 46 | Jon Garland | $9 | $4 | +5 | $4 | $1 | $5 |
| 47 | Kyle Lohse | $4 | $4 | 0 | $6 | $4 | $17 |
| 48 | Scott Olsen | -$4 | $4 | -8 | $9 | $1 | $11 |
| 49 | Joe Blanton | $15 | $4 | +11 | $6 | $8 | $6 |
| 50 | Aaron Cook | $7 | $4 | +4 | $6 | $3 | $15 |
| Average | $8 | $5 | +4 | $7 | $4 | $11 |
It sure can. There are some individual losers here, but on the whole this group was pretty solid. Getting $8 of earnings per pitcher this far down is a pretty damn good return on what's typically an unreliable investment.
Since Patton didn't spend a lot of money early, he can pick and choose down here near the bottom. He does wind up missing outright on most of the big winners here, though. He ties the market on Sanchez, Wolf, and Garland and gets Volstad, Arroyo, Bush, Lohse, Olson, and Cook. SW gets Blanton. The market does not get a single pitcher outright.
The thing that strikes me about this group of pitchers is that they earned $11 per pitcher and get their salaries slashed by over 50%. To a degree, the market was right; four of the six double-digit earners in 2008 failed to earn in double-digits again in 2009.
Next Ten (51-60) Most Expensive N.L. Starting Pitchers 2009
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | '08 |
| 51 | Todd Wellemeyer | -$6 | $3 | -10 | $9 | $6 | $19 |
| 52 | John Lannan | $9 | $3 | +6 | $1 | $2 | $12 |
| 53 | Jordan Zimmerman | $4 | $3 | +2 | R1 | $2 | |
| 54 | Anibal Sanchez | $4 | $2 | +1 | $3 | $3 | $0 |
| 55 | Pedro Martinez | $5 | $2 | +3 | R2 | $10 | $0 |
| 56 | Andrew Miller | -$0 | $2 | -2 | $1 | $1 | -$1 |
| 57 | Joel Pineiro | $21 | $2 | +19 | $1 | $3 | |
| 58 | J.A. Happ | $19 | $2 | +17 | $1 | $1 | $2 |
| 59 | Micah Owings | -$1 | $2 | -3 | $4 | $1 | $2 |
| 60 | Jamie Moyer | $7 | $1 | +5 | $5 | $1 | $18 |
| Average | $6 | $2 | +4 | $3 | $3 | $6 |
Finally, even Patton runs out of cash.
We're in the crapshoot here; these are the starters the market doesn't really want to touch but has to if they hope to make innings. With 117 pitching slots that need to be filled and 13 team leagues, these guys are fifth starters and - for a couple of teams- fourth starters. If you got Pineiro or Happ, bully for you, but every single column on this chart except for the earnings doesn't exactly indicate that anyone saw these guys coming.
Once again, though, these guys turn a profit.
Don't get too wrapped up in profitability. Each tier of pitchers earned less and less the cheaper and cheaper they got...and you do want stats as well as profits. However, if you're going to get profits at the bottom, it means that you don't have to chase the best pitchers as hard at the top as you normally might. Tim Lincecum is going to be tempting next year, but don't run too far past $40. There are going to be some stats to buy down at the middle and the bottom if you miss out on the studs at the top.
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