Roto Think Tank

Kelly Johnson

2009-07-08T20:35:00.002-04:00

Anonymous asks:

Kelly Johnson hit the waiver wire in my deep, 12-team, NL-only. Should I acquire him? Is there a second-half turnaround in store for him?

The first part of the question is easy. Unless you have a league with very limited reserve lists, you should jump all over Johnson if he's available in your league.

By my reckoning, Johnson earned $19 in 4x4 last year. That put him fifth among National League second basemen in 2008. It's nearly impossible to trade for a middle infielder who produces nearly $20 worth of stats; you have nothing to lose by taking the gamble except your FAAB.

If Johnson fails and merely stays at the level he's at, he'll still hit some HR, drive in some runs, and steal some bases. If you can take the average hit, then you're still going to get a productive player - which is more than you can say for any of the dreck that's probably sitting in your free agent pool.

Will Johnson turn it around? That's a tougher question.

There's certainly something to Toz's theory that Johnson should swing and miss more often. His contact rate of 84.2% is almost four percent higher than Johnson's career norm. The odd thing is that most of Johnson's additional swings have come at pitches in the zone and not outside of it. Whatever has happened to Johnson this year, it's not that he suddenly forgot the strike zone and started swinging at bad pitches.

I did notice that his G/F ratio skewed toward flyballs this year. Johnson's 0.89 G/F lends itself to the idea that he's more of a flyball hitter than he's ever been before. One would expect that Johnson might be hitting a few more balls out of the park, but his HR/FB% of 6.2% is very low. Again, there might be something to the idea that Johnson has developed a better batting eye but the end result is that he's swinging at higher quality strikes.

All this being said, Johnson's BABIP is so low that he almost has to bounce back. That doesn't mean he will - better players than Johnson have simply had entire years where the bounces don't fall, the close plays don't go your way, and you suddenly start making all kinds of unorthodox outs. But even with the lower LD%, Johnson should be able to increase that BABIP and - as a result - increase his production, assuming he gets another chance.

And The Player To be Named is...

2009-07-07T21:19:00.003-04:00

Anonymous wonders:

Who do you think the PTBNL is in the (Scott) Hairston trade? Apparently, the Padres can pick between one of two pitchers.

I don't know for sure, but speculation at Fangraphs and Athletics Nation has surrounded Sean Gallagher and Dana Eveland. MLB Trade Rumors suggests that one of the potential PTBNLs does have major league experience, making Gallagher or Eveland seem like possible choices.

I'd say that Gallagher is probably the better choice for the Padres, but what Rotoworld called a "minor knee injury" on June 7 has kept Gallagher out of action for over a month now. That means that if it is Gallagher, you might not see much impact from him in 2009 and can all but cross him off of your FAAB wish list. If you're thinking long-term, though, he is still only a relative pup at the age of 23 and could definitely translate his minor league successes to the majors at some point.

I'm a little less confident in Eveland. Some of that might simply be from the visceral experience of watching him tank against the Red Sox tonight. He started off like a house afire in 2008, but seemed to lose command of his pitches as the season went along and he hasn't been the same since. Tonight was the same story: Eveland's best stuff wasn't blowing anyone away so he started throwing slop outside the zone. That led to walks, which led to slop inside the zone, which led to Red Sox hits, more slop outside the zone and an early exit.

At 25, Eveland isn't as young as Gallagher, but he still is relatively young. That being said, I think the Padres (assuming they are choosing between these two) would probably go for Gallagher over Eveland.

Of course, it wouldn't be a discussion about any future Padres pitcher without mentioning the obvious: Petco is a pitchers heaven. Even on that score, though, Gallagher benefits more than Eveland, as Gallagher is a flyball pitcher while Eveland at his best is a groundball machine.

The other possibility is that the PTBNL is someone else. We shall see. I can't remember the last time a PTBNL generated such interest.

N.L. FAAB Log: July 6, 2009

2009-07-06T00:48:00.002-04:00

Garrett Jones $12. Other bids $12, $5.
Jones is one of those minor league 1B types who hit for not quite enough power, not quite enough batting average, and strike out just a little too much to ever get an opportunity. However, it looks like the Pirates are committed to giving Jones a look in the outfield over some of the sad sack options they've been shoving out there all year long. He's too old to be considered a prospect, and despite the .307 BA in AAA this year he projects out more as a .230-.250 hitter in the bigs, but the combined power/PT makes him worth a solid bid this week...he's already got two HR since his promotion.

Ryan Sadowski $4.
He obviously isn't going to throw up a shutout every time out, but unlike Rotoworld I don't think that Sadowski is simply an accident waiting to happen. While his 4.15 G/F ratio in his first two MLB starts is obviously unsustainable, Sadowski did have a decent G/F ratio in the minors this year and could keep his ERA OK if he keeps the ball on the ground. I'm not saying that he's going to be an awesome SP, but he could be league average or slightly below and with the Giants playing well Sadowski could stick and win a few starts. Tread with caution, but don't be afraid to tread, in other words.

Joe Thurston $3.
I speculated last week that Thurston would get buried on the bench with the Cardinals acquisition of Mark DeRosa, but with DeRosa's wrist injury lingering (and possibly being more serious than initially believed), Thurston has gotten most of the starts at 3B this week. He's still having a bad year and is only an option right now if he's playing every day.

Will Venable $2.
Venable's swing-for-the-fences approach worked well at AAA Portland this year but not so much for the Padres, where he has an unacceptable 14 whiffs in 37 AB with next to nothing to show for it. With Scott Hairston getting shipped out of San Diego tonight, Venable has an opportunity to pick up some AB, but Kyle Blanks is probably a better bet to capitalize on the opportunity. I'd stay away from Venable until he starts hitting.

Josh Banks $1.
After a solid start against the Astros earlier in the week, Banks got pounded by the Dodgers today, allowing 3 HR in 4 1/3 IP while failing to strike out a batter. Banks gets by with an assortment of junk (including the odd knuckler). He's an entertaining pitcher to watch if you don't own him, but owning him probably requires a bottle of antacid and smelling salts. I'd avoid even in match-ups.

Bobby Parnell $1.
I wrote about Parnell earlier this week as part of a piece on N.L. middle relievers.

Rodrigo Lopez $1.
Lopez turned in a solid outing as a fill-in starter against the Mets this weekend, but that hasn't seemed like much of a task lately with half of their line-up out with injuries. The 33-year-old hasn't had a decent season since he pitched for the Orioles in 2004 and despite solid minor league numbers seems like a poor bet going forward. He could also be a placeholder for Carlos Carrasco, so don't make a big investment even if you do decide to invest.

Brett Carroll $1.
With the Marlins within striking distance of first place, a fire sale looks unlikely, so Carroll's probably going to be a back-up the rest of the way. That makes him a borderline player to own even in very deep leagues, as he doesn't offer quite enough power even as a 5th Roto OF.

Mike Hampton $1.
Hampton came off the DL this past week and was lucky enough to ease in with a start at San Diego. It was a solid start, but Hampton's a poor bet for success and a potential WHIP killer for your team. If you are going to pick him up, this is probably the week to own him: he's facing the Pirates and Nationals in a two-start week.

Robinzon Diaz $1.
With Ryan Doumit starting a rehab assignment on Friday, the clock is ticking for Diaz and any Roto relevance he might have. Since my last write-up on Diaz, he's gone 10-for-33 with 4 RBI, no HR, and no SB. The .303 BA has been fine, but Diaz has done exactly what I would have expected: provide next to no value, even at catcher. With Doumit coming back soon, feel free to drop Diaz if you haven't already done so.

A.L. FAAB Log: July 6, 2009

2009-07-06T00:08:00.002-04:00

Scott Hairston $33. Other bid $4.
The curse of the late Sunday night trade...not enough owners were logged in at this late hour to see the Hairston trade, I'm guessing. The winning bid is mine. I suppose I could have bid less in the hopes of catching most of my league asleep. However, the Rototimes Player Rater has Hairston ranked 21st among 4x4 National League hitters and he has an outside chance at a 20/20 season. There is the possibility that a better player won't cross over into the American League this year. Hairston should start for the A's right away (I concur with Rotoworld and believe that Travis Buck gets sent down) and should be bid on aggressively.

Eric Hinske $12.
Even if Hinske can manage 3-4 starts a week for the Yankees, he could be valuable due to his power (if you can take a possible BA hit). The problem is that it's hard to see where Hinske's going to fit in on a team that's already loaded up in the OF and at both corners. Barring an injury, Hinske's not going to play more than 1-2 times a week, and that probably only makes him worth acquiring if you're truly desperate. There are better options out there even in deep leagues right now, such as...

Ryan Langerhans $5. Other bids $2, $1, $1.
It looks like the Mariners are going to use Langerhans in a pretty straight platoon with Wladimir Balentien. Since Langerhans is on the good side of the platoon, that makes him a solid short-term pick-up. His career numbers in the majors are quite uninspiring, but Langerhans could pop 10-15 HR over the course of a full season in a full-time role, so pick him up if you have a glaring need for power and have the slot.

Garret Olson $3.
Olson's numbers have been OK so far, and a solid start this weekend against Boston probably raised some eyebrows. The downside is that his K/IP has been underwhelming for a guy who throws as hard as Olson can and his HR/9 has been atrocious. His raw stuff is good enough that he could continue to put up OK numbers if he hangs on to the job, but with Erik Bedard possibly coming back this week, Olson might wind up in the pen again. Long term, I think his future might be as a LOOGY.

Chris Woodward $2. Other bid $1.
I'm not sure what the MLE of a 299 BA and a 766 OPS at AAA Tacoma is, but I'm sure it's nothing to write home about. At the moment, it appears that Woodward is the starting 3B for the Mariners, but one would hope that they're working the phones looking for a better option, or that Chris Shelton is playing 3B in AAA to see if his defense would hold up at the major league level. Woodward is suitable as a major league utility player, but his value in Roto is virtually non-existent, even if he's starting.

Jim Johnson $2.
Johnson had a shaky outing this week, but he's been solid all year for the Orioles and his fantasy owners, and could wind up closing if the O's do wind up trading George Sherrill.

David Dellucci $1.
Russ Adams wasn't cutting it for the Jays, so it's Dellucci's turn to see if he can be an effective de facto platoon mate with Kevin Millar. Like Langerhans, Dellucci is on the good side of a platoon at the moment, so could be worth a small bid if you have a dead spot in the OF. His upside is a little more power potential than Langerhans, but Dellucci hasn't hit at all this year and is at the age where players sometimes just fall off the map entirely.

Fu-Te Ni $1.
Ni is a 26-year-old Taiwanese pitcher that the Tigers signed to a minor-league deal in the offseason. I don't know much about him, but scouting reports say that he's a finesse pitcher. His minor league splits this year make him look like a lefty specialist, and since Bobby Seay already does that job well for the Tigers, I don't know how long Ni will be up or what kind of role he'll carve out in the long-term.

Jayson Nix. Claimed by 12th and 6th place teams.
Nix should probably be starting at 2B over Chris Getz, but he's mostly served as a utilityman/jack-of-all-trades player for the White Sox. He's provided solid power and speed off of the bench, and since he's MI eligible in most leagues he should be owned as a third MI in deeper leagues. Don't be fooled by his high number of AB this week. Alex Ramirez was fighting a finger injury and is healthy again. Nix should go back to starting 1-2 times a week assuming everyone else is healthy.

Aaron Poreda. Claimed by 10th, 5th, and 2nd place teams.
This is a suitable waiver claim for a team at or near the bottom of the standings. Poreda's been buried in the Sox bullpen and has barely pitched since his call-up. He belongs back in the minors, but is a good guy to pick-up and stash if you're playing for next year.

DeWayne Wise. Claimed by 9th and 6th place teams.
Wise looked like a solid option coming out of spring training, but it looks like Scott Podsednik has Pipped Wise out of a job. With Carlos Quentin starting a rehab assignment this past weekend, the ChiSox OF is going to get even more crowded, squeezing Wise out of further AB. He's a longshot to contribute at the moment.

N.L. FAAB Supplemental: Drew Sutton

2009-07-05T11:28:00.002-04:00

Sutton generated a fair amount of interest after the Astros swapped him straight up for Jeff Keppinger back in April. Sutton has always been a borderline prospect; he's interesting to major league teams because of his versatility around the infield as well as his moderate power potential. However, his 2008 campaign saw his first OPS over 800 since his days in the Sally League back in 2005, and Sutton was a 25-year-old repeating at AA. No bid for now, but Sutton bears watching given the Reds thin infield.

Buy Low/Sell High: Middle Relievers (N.L.)

2009-07-04T11:49:00.002-04:00

I didn't think my series on middle relievers would generate such interest, but since most fantasy web sites say or imply that they're nearly worthless, I shouldn't be surprised.

Anonymous asks:

Since MRs tend to be so uneven from the first to the second half, who are some sell-high, buy-low candidates? I'm in an NL-only.

Provided below is what is an admittedly abbreviated list. Since a vast majority of free agents in deep leagues are middle relievers, one person's trash is another's treasure, so keep in mind that these are my recommendations; you might have your own opinions based on how you view these pitchers.

The other caveat is that I'm not recommending any of these pitchers based on their chances of getting wins or saves. I'm simply looking at ERA, WHIP and (to a lesser degree) strikeouts for you 5x5 owners.

Buy
Jared Burton 33 2/3 IP, 0 W, 0 SV, 4.81 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 25 K
Because of the 4.54 BB/9, Burton's a borderline buy low guy. However, after a poor April and May, he turned it around in June, posting a 2.19 ERA with a 1.3 WHIP. The K rate is solid, and Burton's kept the ball in the yard this year (1 HR allowed). His .346 BABIP tells me that he's been somewhat unlucky.

Juan Gutierrez 38 2/3 IP, 1 W, 1 SV, 4.66 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 42 K
Gutierrez's line isn't good, but most of that line comes due to a three game stretch last month where he was absolutely stinky (2 1/3 IP, 9 H, 3 BB, 9 ER). Take that awful streak out and Gutierrez has been pretty dominant most of the year. He might not save any games this year, but he should provide value - particularly in 5x5 K leagues. The one thing to watch out for is that he's a flyball pitcher whose HR/FB % is abnormally low.

Joel Hanrahan 34 2/3 IP, 0 w, 5 SV, 7.79 ERA, 1.99 WHIP, 38 K
If you don't want to take this recommendation, I don't blame you. However, Hanrahan's got over a K per inning, his .460 BABIP has nowhere to go but down, and he's removed from the constant pressure cooker of a situation that Manny Acta had created in Washington with his "Who's Closing for Me Now?" game show. I don't expect Hanrahan to be a world beater, but if he wound up throwing up a 4.00 ERA with a 1.3 WHIP and maintaining a whiff an inning I wouldn't be surprised.

Chan Ho Park 55 1/3 IP, 3 W, 0 SV, 5.86 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 46 K
Having paid $21 for Park prior to his ill-fated 2002 campaign with Texas, I never thought he'd be useful for anything outside of a scary campfire story to my kids, who I presume will someday be Rotisserie addicts like me. But after getting boxed around as a starter, Park has quietly put up some solid numbers out of the pen for the Phillies, with a 3.68 ERA and a .264 BAA as a reliever. His higher K/IP numbers make me think that Park allows himself some extra oomph when he knows he's only going to be in there for a inning or two, making him tougher to hit. I wouldn't want to count on him, but he's a fine addition as your last active pitcher.

Bobby Parnell 30 1/3 IP, 2 w, 0 SV, 5.04 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, 25 K
Parnell's a tough guy to recommend because - unlike most of the pitchers on this list - his numbers are headed in the wrong direction. A 13.50 ERA and a 3 WHIP in June scream "Stay Away!" However, it's hard to overlook Parnell's decent K/9 and HR/9 ratios, and looking at his 398 BABIP makes me think that he's got nowhere to go but up. Citi Field is also a favorable venue for Parnell. This is the riskiest buy recommendation in this entire group, but Parnell is definitely a candidate to improve.

Sell/Don't Buy
Kyle McClellan 37 IP, 2 w, 1 SV, 2.92 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 28 K
An overriding theme with most of these sell pitchers isn't that they're bad, just that they're not as good as their numbers to date. McClellan stuff is OK, but unless he's throwing up a G/F of 2.0 or better (he isn't), his peripherals simply don't support an ERA under three.

Evan Meek 29 2/3 IP, 0 W, 0 SV, 2.73 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 18 K
Meek's success comes from getting hitters to pound the ball into the ground, but more walks than whiffs and an extremely favorable BABIP of 206 make for an awful combination. I doubt most would consider picking him up for the BB/IP ratio alone, but if you are, don't.

Justin Miller 33 1/3 IP, 1 w, 0 SV, 2.16 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 20 K
Of the top performing middle relievers to date, regular reader Brett thinks that Nick Masset is the guy who is due for a Post All-Star fall, but my money's on this guy. His 93% strand rate is absurdly good while his HR/9 is pedestrian, making me think that the long flies Miller gives up in the second half could be more costly than the ones he's given up thus far. Miller does have better career K rates, so if he does start generating more punch outs, the correction might not be as severe.

Renyel Pinto 28 2/3 IP, 3 W, 0 SV, 3.14 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 26 K
Pinto is a case where the gaudy K/IP numbers and the talk of him as a sleeper closer candidate make him seem more valuable than he actually is. The walk rate is too high and when you combine this with his severe G/F rate, Pinto seems lucky to have served up only two dingers this year. That ERA is going to catch up with that WHIP in the second half.

David Weathers 27 1/3 IP, 0 W, 1 SV, 2.63 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 17 K
Weathers is a pitcher who I don't expect to collapse but who I don't expect to post numbers this strong going forward. His 221 BABIP compares extremely favorably to his 310 career rate and his K/9 don't really support the dominance that Weathers has exhibited thus far.

Diving Deep Into the Middle (A.L.)

2009-07-03T15:45:00.002-04:00

Continuing with what has now become a four-part series on middle relievers, here's a look at the best middle relievers in the American League to date in 4x4 Rotisserie League formats:

Most Valuable MR to Date: American League

#	Player	4x4 $	5x5 $	Sal	Owned?	How?
1	Ramon Ramirez	$22	$17	$1	Y	FA 4/6
2	Jason Frasor	$21	$15		Y	FA 4/13
3	Alfredo Aceves	$21	$16	$1	Y	FA 5/18
4	Michael Wuertz	$21	$17		Y	FA 5/18
5	Matt Guerrier	$21	$13		Y	FA 4/27
6	Darren O'Day	$18	$13		Y	FA 5/25
7	Lance Cormier	$15	$11		N	FA 6/1
8	Matt Thornton	$15	$12	$3	Y	$1
9	Jim Johnson	$15	$10		N	FA 6/1
10	Miguel Batista	$14	$10	$2	N	FA 4/27
	Average	$18	$13	$1

It's a somewhat different vibe in the A.L. than in the N.L. Perhaps it is because the player pool is thinner, maybe it's because the fifth starters in the American League are that bad, or maybe it's because A.L. starters don't get to face their counterparts holding a bat 2-3 times a game. Whatever the reason, strong middle relievers definitely aren't allowed to simply sit in the free agent pool in the A.L. They get picked up off the FAAB wires and thrown in there.

There's also a little more play amongst the expert leagues for these guys. Batista was mostly part of the wacky Seattle guessing game prior to Brandon Morrow being anointed the closer, but the rest of these guys in the hopes that they'd contribute in the non-save categories. Thornton, Aceves, and Ramirez aren't the kind of plays an owner makes thinking that Bobby Jenks, Mariano Rivera, or Jon Papelbon are going to fall down on their asses and be unable to continue.

Based on past performance, this is a fairly sensible conclusion to derive. Let's look at two pitchers from last year: Thornton and Minnesota starter Glen Perkins.

Player	IP	W	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Glen Perkins '08	151	12	0	74	4.41	1.470
Matt Thornton '08	67 1/3	5	1	77	2.67	0.995

I'd be willing to guess that more fantasy baseball sites recommended Perkins last year as a viable option over Thornton based on his wins and his so-so ERA. Yet Thornton provided just about the same value in strikeouts while blowing Perkins away in ERA and WHIP. It's even more dramatic when reflected in dollar values.

Player	IP	W	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Glen Perkins '08	151	$6.35	$0.00	$3.41	-$1.01	-$2.70
Matt Thornton '08	67 1/3	$2.59	$0.28	$3.55	$2.61	$3.67

Perkins blew away Thornton in wins last year, but Thornton more than made up for it in ERA/WHIP. The final tally in dollars was Thornton $13 and Perkins $6...and Perkins would have had to have whiffed 219 batters to beat Thornton in 2008!

And that's why teams eventually start gravitating toward these guys once the season starts. If a pitcher is whiffing a batter an inning, that's a good benchmark, whether he's starting or relieving. In 5x5 in particular, these pitchers are going to have serious value, but even in 4x4, good things will happen for these pitchers...assuming that their control is even passable.

Diving Deep Into the Middle (N.L.)

2009-07-02T22:55:00.002-04:00

After reading my scintillating post on middle relievers yesterday, T.J. wanted to know:

Why no Dan Meyer?

The answer is because I was only looking at pitchers who are currently free agents in the 4x4 N.L.-only league I track for my FAAB bids. Since T.J. is (understandably) curious, here is the full list year-to-date.

Most Valuable MR to Date: National League

#	Player	4x4 $	5x5 $	Sal	Owned?	How?
1	Ramon Troncoso	$22	$15		Y	FA 5/18
2	Mark DiFelice	$21	$15		Y	FA 5/4
3	Nick Masset	$21	$15		N
4	Chris Sampson	$21	$13		Y	FA 5/18
5	Dan Meyer	$21	$13		Y	FA 5/18
6	Ronald Belisario	$18	$14		N	FA 5/25
7	Angel Guzman	$15	$11		Y	FA 5/25
8	Mitch Stetter	$15	$11		N
9	Ryan Madson	$15	$11	2	Y	$5F
10	Pedro Feliciano	$14	$11		N	FA 6/22
	Average	$18	$13	0

The dollar values for 4x4 and 5x5 are prorated assuming that all 10 of these pitchers continued on the exact same pace for the rest of the year. The average salary is from the Sportsline, LABR, and Tout Wars expert auctions. The "owned" column tracks whether or not these pitchers are owned in the N.L. league I track for FAAB bids every week, and the last column tells us the salary if they were bought at auction or the date of purchase if they were FAABed.

You'll notice right away that Belisario and Feliciano both have FAAB purchase dates even though they're unowned. That's because they were bought and then tossed back into the pool - Feliciano apparently rather quickly.

And once again you'll notice that the impact of these pitchers in 5x5, though not as significant as it is in 4x4, is still significant. Not all 10 of these pitchers will finish the year in double digits earnings in 5x5, but probably at least 4-5 will.

This isn't small potatoes. Last year in 5x5, only 65 pitchers earned $10 or more. That number expands slightly in 4x4, with 71 pitchers cracking double digits, but it's still not a lot.

In terms of deep leagues, this means that if you had a retrospective auction in N.L. 5x5 leagues last year and everyone took an equal amount of $10+ pitchers, each team would get five of them.

We've had it beaten into our heads for so long by the traditional Rotisserie community that middle relievers are worthless that even the most hard core of Rotisserie analysts don't realize how valuable middle relievers are. One of these guys could be my fifth best pitcher in 5x5, which means that there's a good chance I'm carrying at least two starters who aren't as good as that middle man.

MR Free Agents 2009 - N.L.

2009-07-01T21:06:00.005-04:00

This is part two of two of articles looking at a "typical" deep 4x4 N.L.-only league and seeing who the best free agent middle relievers are as of this writing. (Part One - which covered the A.L. - can be read here.)

Most Valuable MR Free Agents 2009 (LIBL)

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	'08
1	Nick Masset	$21			$0
2	Ronald Belisario	$16
3	Mitch Stetter	$15			$4
4	Pedro Feliciano	$14			$1
5	Arthur Rhodes	$12			$8
6	Jeff Fulchino	$12			-$5
7	Blake Badenhop	$10			-$5
8	Trever Miller	$10			$3
9	Sean Burnett	$9			-$4
10	Justin Miller	$9			$2
	Average	$13			$0

The salary column is comprised of the average salary from the CBS Sportsline, LABR, and Tout Wars expert leagues. In other words, not one of the 38 owners in these three leagues thought that any of these pitchers were worth even a $1 throw.

You could argue that my prices are for 4x4 and those three expert leagues are 5x5 (and your argument would be a fair one). OK...

Most Valuable MR Free Agents 2009 (LIBL w/5x5 $)

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	'08
1	Nick Masset	$16			-$1
2	Ronald Belisario	$14
3	Mitch Stetter	$12			$4
4	Pedro Feliciano	$12			$3
5	Arthur Rhodes	$10			$7
6	Jeff Fulchino	$9			-$3
7	Blake Badenhop	$8			-$2
8	Trever Miller	$8			$3
9	Sean Burnett	$8			-$1
10	Justin Miller	$8			$3
	Average	$11			$1

Switching from 4x4 to 5x5 knocks these guys down a little bit, but it doesn't change the fact that if they keep it up, they'll be pretty valuable. If you told me tonight that I could add an $11 pitcher to the back end of my staff, I'd do it before you could take it back.

OK, you can also argue that it's not fair to expect the experts to be able to predict who these unpredictable pitchers will be in March (or, in the case of the Sportsline experts, February). So have they at least rectified their error come early July?

Most Valuable MR Free Agents 2009 (LIBL)
Expert League Ownership

#	Player	$	CBS	Tout
1	Nick Masset	$16	Y	Y
2	Ronald Belisario	$14	Y	R
3	Mitch Stetter	$12	Y	Y
4	Pedro Feliciano	$12	N	Y
5	Arthur Rhodes	$10	Y	N
6	Jeff Fulchino	$9	N	N
7	Blake Badenhop	$8	R	-N
8	Trever Miller	$8	N	N
9	Sean Burnett	$8	N	N
10	Justin Miller	$8	N	N

Y - owned. N - not owned. R - reserve list

LABR used to be fairly accessible on the Internet once the season started; now their strategy seems to be to try and disappear as soon as the season starts and be as inaccessible as possible. So I'm left looking at just CBS and Tout.

The top pitchers on this list were all picked up. But there are still a lot of opportunities to pick up stats that are being missed in 5x5 expert leagues because middle relievers aren't considered as valuable...this despite the fact that the average pitcher in 5x5 earns $9.40.

An $8 pitcher doesn't sound exciting, and I'm not suggesting that you quit your job, paint your face, and form the Jeff Fulchino Fan Club. However, if Fulchino keeps on track with what he's done so far, an $8 season would have made him the 80th best pitcher in 2008.

Interestingly, the 80th best pitcher in 2008 was Brian Moehler. Moehler was serviceable, yet hardly exciting. He tossed 150 IP, won 11 games, struck out 82 and put up a 4.56 ERA and a 1.347 WHIP. He earned $7.98 in 5x5.

The pitcher below him was Brian Shouse. Shouse won five, saved two, struck out 33, and put up 51 1/3 IP with a 2.81 ERA and a 1.169 ERA. He earned $7.94.

It's easy to look past this basic precept of Roto, but even in 5x5 relievers provide value. You might pick the wrong ones, but you should pick some based on past levels of performance.

And no cheating...that goes for you 5x5 owners as well.

MR Free Agents 2009 - A.L.

2009-06-30T22:33:00.003-04:00

With about half a season in the books, I thought it'd be worth taking a look at a point Dr. Hibbert made earlier this year:

The list of non-sexy non-starters/non-closers who were both profitable AND available via free agency in my league last year is surprisingly long.

So who are these guys exactly?

Most Valuable MR Free Agents 2009 (BABG)

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	'08
1	Jim Johnson	$16			$10
2	Lance Cormier	$15			-$0
3	Danys Baez	$11
4	Phil Coke	$11			$5
5	R.A. Dickey	$10			-$6
6	Miguel Batista	$8	$2	+6	-$19
7	Bobby Seay	$8			-$2
8	Darren Oliver	$8	$0	+8	$12
9	Matt Herges	$7			-$4
10	Justin Speier	$7			-$2
	Average	$10	$0	+7	-$1

These guys all certainly fit the bill. They're unsexy, they're middle relievers and - thus far- they're getting results.

As I showed in my review of 2008 middle relievers, these guys do fluctuate a great deal from half to half. Keep in mind that the dollar values shown above are prorated assuming that these pitchers stay on the exact same pace over the course of an entire season. While it's possible that Jim Johnson will earn $16 this year, history tells us he's more likely to earn $10. Or maybe $8.

I think Dr. Hibbert's main point stands. There is money to be made on middle relievers in Roto. Furthermore, it's important to look past wins and saves when it comes to middle relievers, since they can earn a good deal of money in ERA/WHIP. The problem is that the smaller sample sizes make for larger and more unpredictable gaps between expected performance and actual performance, making it harder to look at Justin Speier's numbers to date and simply say, "He's for real."

N.L. FAAB Log: June 29, 2009

2009-06-29T01:04:00.003-04:00

Mark DeRosa $32. Other bids $31, $30, $30, $27, $24, $23, $23, $23, $17.
There's not really much of a need to discuss who DeRosa is, so I'll focus instead on the tepid bidding here. Given that he's eligible at 2B, 3B, and OF and could hit 10-12 HR the rest of the way there probably should have been at least a $50 bid. I'm sure someone better could come along at the end of July, but getting an additional month's worth of stats from someone like DeRosa is worth higher bids than these.

Dan Meyer $8. Other bids $5, $4, $3, $2, $2, $2.
With Meyer picking up a save this week, and Leo Nunez nursing an ankle injury, Rotowire speculates that Nunez should be back in the role this week while Fangraphs likes Meyer based on his numbers. I tend to agree with Rotowire and lean toward Nunez, but Meyer's worth a bid because it's entirely possible that Fredi Gonzalez plays the hot hand. Meyer's been terrific all year and even if he doesn't close should be owned in all 4x4 leagues right now.

Alex Romero $7. Other bid $1.
I suspect that Romero will go back to being a 4th OF once he cools off, but he's hit so far since his call-up from AAA Reno, and it's not like the Diamondbacks offense is so terrific that Romero can't continue to amass a 10-15 AB a week even as a back-up. He's probably not going to do much more than hit for average and steal the odd base, though, so he's a 5th Roto OF option at best unless he does play every day.

Fernando Tatis $3. Other bids $3, $1.
With all of the injuries to the Mets, Tatis has moved from 1B to LF but has stayed in the line-up. He hasn't nearly been as productive as he was in his unexpected 2008 comeback. He could hit for more power but I'd watch closely...Tatis is at the age and stage of his career where sudden erosion wouldn't be shocking. The bottom line is that he's playing now and will keep playing as long as the Mets are short-handed.

Brian Sanches $2.
Marlins middle reliever and minor league journeyman who mostly pitched in the majors for the Phillies between 2006-2007. He's putting up a gaudy ERA with a WHIP and other peripherals that don't support it. It's highly unlikely he'll close at any point this season.

Joe Thurston $1.
With the acquisition of DeRosa, Thurston should be the odd man out in St. Louis. After a fast start, Thurston had cratered anyway, posting a 469 OPS in his last 40 AB. A well-timed hot streak could get him some more playing time at 2B, 3B or OF, but Thurston is a borderline player anyway since he doesn't hit for power and doesn't utilize his speed enough on the basepaths to make it worth your while.

Clay Zavada $1.
Hats off to Zavada for what he's done so far - 16 1/3 scoreless with 17 whiffs - but he's a junkballer (Baseball Prospectus described him in their annual as "a trick pitcher with a Bugs Bunny change-up and little else) who the league is probably going to catch up with at some point down the line. Also keep in mind that Zavada hadn't reached Double-A until this year at the not-so-tender age of 24.

Jonathan Sanchez $1.
An awful start to the season by Sanchez led to his demotion to the pen earlier this week. He was striking out nearly a batter an inning even as a starter, so he could be a sneaky 5x5 weapon if he keeps up the K rate and gets steady work in middle relief. Sanchez is a good guy to stash in leagues where you can reserve active major leaguers; I like him better long term than a lot of the guys we're going to see the Giants trot out there in the coming weeks.

Eliezer Alfonzo $1.
With Nick Hundley on the shelf, Alfonzo has split the catching duties with Henry Blanco nearly down the middle in San Diego. Alfonzo's a long way removed from his 12 HR campaign in 2006, though, and miserable plate discipline dooms him to a career as a fill-in and AAA insurance policy.

Craig Stammen $1.
Stammen is being moved to the pen with the imminent return of Scott Olsen, so this is a future play more than anything else. I suppose that Manny Acta could name Stammen his closer of the day at some point, but then the same could be said for you, me, the ballboy, the peanut vendor, and Joe Biden.
UPDATE: As I was writing this in the wee hours last night, the Nationals decided to keep Stammen in the rotation, and option Shairon Martis instead. Stammen gets a little slack since he was roughed up by the Red Sox in his last start, but given his poor K/IP rates, he's going to still need a lot of luck regardless of the line-up he's facing.

Brad Thompson $1.
Since I wrote about Thompson two weeks ago, he's put up a solid start against the Royals and a shaky one against the Mets. His poor K/BB ratio isn't a good sign; Thompson needs to throw strikes to be effective and not nibble.

Chris Coste $1.
Coste DHed a little bit for the Phillies, but now that interleague play is over his playing time should once again dwindle down to two or three starts a week at most. He has shown sneaky power in the past but not this year, making him nothing better than a middle-of-the-road #2 catcher even in deep leagues.

Anderson Hernandez $1.
After a torrid April (relatively speaking), Hernandez hasn't cracked a 600 OPS since and is a liability both to the Nationals and to Rotisserie teams. He steals the occasional base, but is certain to drag down your BA if you let him. He's stretched out as a starting 2B.

A.L. FAAB Log: June 29, 2009

2009-06-29T00:29:00.004-04:00

Chris Perez $11. Other bids $5, $1.
Perez is the Indians known return for their trade of Mark DeRosa this weekend. He throws a hard fastball and a good slider, but has had lots of trouble harnessing his control for the Cardinals, and I suspect that they finally lost patience with him. I'm sure if the Indians had their druthers they'd trade Kerry Wood to a team for peanuts and throw Perez right in as closer, but it's not going to play out that way, and I don't see the Indians eating the $15M or so Wood is currently owed. That makes Perez a more likely next year play and the winning bidder here appropriately was in last place. However, don't go too crazy. We've drooled over Joel Zumaya for years now, and don't have a lot to show for it.

Ramiro Pena $2.
I don't know what surprises me more: the fact that Ramiro Pena is still on the Yankees or the fact that he has 86 major league AB so far. Pena has a little speed but has next to no Roto value, and Cody Ransom should get more of the AB at 3B on the days the Yanks need to spell A-Rod.

Mike Sweeney $2.
With interleague play over, Sweeney should go back to DHing and playing the occasional game at 1B. I suspect that the Mariners will send Mike Carp back to AAA once they add new addition Ryan Langerhans to the roster. Sweeney's swinging a hot bat right now, but even so only plays enough to warrant adding if you have a complete dead spot in A.L.-only leagues.

Ronny Cedeno $1.
With Yuniesky Betancourt hitting the DL, Cedeno is playing nearly every day at SS for the M's. He's been absolutely dreadful this year, and is sporting a horrid 415 OPS in 94 AB. He should be better than this, but right now shouldn't be anywhere near your roster when he's going this badly.

Russ Adams $1.
Rototimes erroneously stated that Adams will serve as a back-up MI for the Jays, but it actually looks like he's going to be in a quasi-platoon with Kevin Millar, with Adam Lind moving to DH and Adams moving to OF against righties. Adams is a former prospect for the Jays, but blew it in his one shot way back in 2006 and is now seen more as organizational depth. He doesn't have enough power or speed to be useful unless he's playing every day, which he probably won't barring a few injuries. It is worth noting that in leagues that use this year's minor league games played Adams is SS eligible.

Grant Balfour $1.
Joe Nelson $1.
Don't look now, but after a horrible April Balfour has bounced back and put up a solid June, including a current run where he hasn't allowed a run since June 7. J.P. Howell's also hot, but Balfour could vulture the odd save or win and once again is a decent play in deep leagues. Like Balfour, Nelson has bounced back from an awful month (in his case May) to post great numbers in June, allowing a mere 3 H in 9 IP with one ER. He might also get a stray save or win op here or there, and the Rays are strong enough that a vulture is probably going to pop up out of this pen somewhere.

Armando Galarraga. Claimed by 12th, 7th, and 4th place teams.
Galarraga's owner understandably lost patience and waived him last week, and three teams took a shot. After putting up a 1.85 ERA in April, Galarraga's been awful and at risk this month of being sent to the pen or demoted. It seems that his shaky peripherals from 2008 have caught up with him this year in a big way. I don't think he's this bad, but have to admit that he looks like a significant risk right now and should only be owned by teams not in contention or on the fence that need to take a chance. He gets the A's this week and from that standpoint there are worse plays out there.

Mark Kotsay. Claimed by 10th and 6th place teams.
Kotsay's been swinging a hot bat; as a result, the Red Sox have been working him into the line-up a little bit here and there. Still, Kotsay hasn't hit for enough power or run enough to be worth a significant FAAB dip in some time now.

Darren O'Day. Claimed by 7th place team.
O'Day has been tremendous in middle relief for the Rangers, but he's buried fairly deep on the depth chart and has been collecting rust for the last week.

The Mighty Men in the Middle (N.L.)

2009-06-28T13:52:00.002-04:00

Yesterday, I took a look back at last year's best middle relievers in the American League. Today, I'll do the same for the National League.

One thing I noticed right off the bat is that last year's middle relief king, Carlos Marmol, must have been dynamite in the second half, because he barely cracked this list.

Top 10 N.L. Middle Relievers, Pre-All-Star 2008

#	Player	AS $	Sal	+/-	$
1	Heath Bell	$23	$7	+16	$10
2	Hong Chih-Kuo	$22	$0	+22	$19
3	Taylor Buchholz	$22			$19
4	Jorge Campillo	$20			$13
5	Damaso Marte	$17	$0	+17	$11
6	Brian Shouse	$17			$12
7	Carlos Marmol	$15	$9	+6	$21
8	Chad Durbin	$15			$11
9	Jared Burton	$14	$1	+13	$7
10	Chan Ho Park	$14			$7
	Average	$18	$2	+16	$13

These guys fell off more in the second half than their A.L. counterparts did, though the fact that they were on pace to earn $1 more per pitcher explains some of that; there was more room for disappointment. I also find it interesting that while in the A.L. the Top 10 Pre-All Star were all very cheap middle relief plays, here Marmol and Bell were CIWs that everyone expected would earn big.

In case you're wondering, Marte is a fairly representative example of what a $0 pitcher in the second half might have looked like, as he pitched 1 2/3 IP for the Pirates in the second half before getting flipped to the Yankees.

The $6 dip makes me think that there is going to be a lot more dichotomy from the first half to the second half in the N.L. than there was in the A.L.

Top 10 N.L. Middle Relievers, Post-All-Star 2008

#	Player	Post AS $	Sal	+/-	$
1	Carlos Marmol	$11	$9	+2	$21
2	Sergio Romo	$9			$12
3	LaTroy Hawkins	$9			$9
4	Steven Shell	$9			$11
5	Cory Wade	$9			$15
6	John Grabow	$7			$14
7	Jeff Bennett	$6			$7
8	Guillermo Mota	$6			$5
9	Carlos Villanueva	$6	$4	+2	$6
10	Mike Adams	$6			$12
	Average	$8	$1	+7	$11

It's as if the National League decided to have Upside Down Day for Middle Relievers or some such nonsense.

Who are these guys? Steven Shell? Cory Wade?

Mike Adams is still pitching???

For the most part, this is what you expect to see when you look at a group of 10 middle relievers and combine a small sample size of 65-70 games. Still, this list is more than a little shocking. If you were fishing for middle relief help in 2008 in the N.L., you were essentially closing your eyes and seeing where your dart hit after it landed. And if you held on to your top middle relief guy in the hopes that he was going to keep earning at a $15-20 pace, chances are that you were sorely disappointed.

The Mighty Men in the Middle (A.L.)

2009-06-27T15:44:00.002-04:00

As anyone who reads this blog knows, I spend a lot of time writing about middle relievers in my weekly, in-season FAAB logs. That's because in 12-team A.L. or 12/13-team N.L. leagues, most starting pitchers are already owned...and the ones who aren't owned usually stink on ice. That leaves us trying to grab some decent middle relievers to prop up our ERA/WHIP and maybe even pick up a few vulture wins in the process.

At this point, there's little if any debate about the value of a good middle reliever. The best A.L. middle reliever earned $20 in 4x4 last year while the best N.L. MR earned $21.

Nor is there much debate about how fickle middle relievers are from season to season. Last year's best middle men were Grant Balfour and Carlos Marmol, and both are struggling mightily in 2009.

Since it's too late to go back and warn Balfour and Marmol owners not to buy Balfour and Marmol, I thought I'd look instead at who the top middle relievers were at the All Star Break in 2008 and how well they did or didn't hold up in the second half.

Top 10 A.L. Middle Relievers, Pre-All-Star 2008

#	Player	AS $	Sal	+/-	$
1	J.P. Howell	$21	$1	+20	$18
2	Ron Mahay	$19			$5
3	Jim Johnson	$19			$10
4	Matt Thornton	$19			$14
5	Dan Wheeler	$18	$2	+16	$20
6	Scott Linebrink	$15			$6
7	Jose Arredondo	$15			$19
8	Scott Downs	$15			$13
9	Grant Balfour	$14			$20
10	Scot Shields	$14	$3	+10	$12
	Average	$17	$1	+16	$14

The "AS $" column is the earnings through the All-Star break adjusted to a full season's worth of earnings. In other words, if Howell had stayed on pace in all categories the rest of the way, he would have earned $21. The fact that he "only" earned $18 means that he tailed off a little bit in the second half, but not much.

In fact, this is a fairly predictable group of pitchers. Six of the top 10 middle relievers at season's end are on this list, and Wheeler doesn't qualify because he became the Rays closer by year's end. Linebrink and Mahay are huge disappointments, but if you hung on to these guys through the end of the season, you probably didn't get killed.

Would it have necessarily been easy to find their replacements?

Top 10 A.L. Middle Relievers, Post All-Star 2008

#	Player	Post AS $	Sal	+/-	Pre AS $
1	Grant Balfour	$12			$8
2	Jesse Carlson	$12			$5
3	Joey Devine	$11	$2	+9	$7
4	Jose Arredondo	$11			$9
5	Darren Oliver	$10			$3
6	Frank Francisco	$9			$2
7	Manny Delcarmen	$9	$1	+8	$0
8	Roy Corcoran	$7			$2
9	Brandon League	$7			-$2
10	Rafael Perez	$7	$3	+4	$3
	Average	$10	$1	+9	$4

Since there were only an average of 67 games per major league team Post All-Star, it didn't make sense to pro-rate the formulas for those 67 games. Instead, I thought I'd look at how much those 67 games contributed to the total earnings versus how much the first 95 games mattered.

There's definitely a sharp break between the top four pitchers and the bottom six. Balfour, Carlson, Devine, and Arredondo all had solid Pre-All-Star numbers, while the bottom six pitchers seemed to come out of nowhere to post solid stats down the stretch.

One of the problems with middle relievers is that because they're so hard to identify, we often don't own them for their best outings. By the time someone picked up Corcoran in my league, it was too late for him to help. The same is true for Oliver. League wasn't even owned.

The other problem is that by the time these guys are identifiable, the contenders have already pieced together strong staffs - either through trades, FAAB, or farm systems. Digging yourself out of a 4.5 ERA and 1.4 WHIP hole is nearly impossible, and unless you hit on at least two stud middle relievers, you're not going to be able to do it.

Valuation Continued: Rotoman Makes a Good Point

2009-06-26T23:29:00.003-04:00

Of course, that's why he's Rotoman.

Here's the good point:

I think the SGP process of pricing is a lot of hoo-hah with little practical purpose. If you're making general purpose prices there should be adjustments for the categories that teams regularly dump (saves and steals), but since you can't know what the spread in any individual league's categories is going to be, adjusting for it is as likely to be wrong as right.

Some of you are probably nodding your heads. But I'll bet many of you are scratching them instead. So I'll take a few steps back.

Back in the very early days of Rotisserie, the few pricing systems that were around used what was known as a scarcity model of pricing, where the less of something there was, the more valuable it was in terms of pricing. The problem with this approach was that someone like Vince Coleman back when he stole 100+ bases would have been worth $90 since he was stealing so many bases and providing such a rare stat so frequently.

SGP is "Standings Gain Points" for short and attempts to weigh stats based on how competitive individual categories are in each league. Alex Patton's pricing model puts a 3:2:1 weight on RBI/HR/SB, more or less. And, yes, the adjustment is primarily made based on the fact that some teams generally dump steals or saves (particularly in 4x4 leagues), and if one or two teams dump a category, it depends to depress prices in the category.

I agree with Rotoman that it is impossible to predict how this will play out in every individual league. Non-carryover leagues play differently than keeper leagues. Teams are less likely to dump categories in 5x5 than they are in 4x4. Some leagues cherish saves and pay a premium for scarcity: both at the auction and once the season starts.

However, you do probably want to make some kind of adjustment and avoid falling back on a pure scarcity model. Unless you want to pay $80 for Jose Reyes, of course.

Rotoman is right that adjusting for your league's individual spreads would theoretically be the correct way to set prices for each individual league. However, the perfect adjustment would be based on what is going to happen in the upcoming season, not what happened the year before.

To that end, you probably are better off with a generic adjustment. But, again, you should make an adjustment of some kind, even if you are simply tweaking based on your league's specific bids. Paying $55 for Joe Nathan or Heath Bell next year isn't going to win you your league, even if they are technically that valuable.

Position Scarcity and Dollar Valuation

2009-06-25T22:28:00.003-04:00

Back in April when I wrote about Rototimes' Player Rater, there was some discussion amongst my readers as to whether or not the Player Rater used position scarcity to skew values. Brett didn't think so.

I thought I'd take a more detailed look. The values are for games played through yesterday, 13-team N.L.-only 4x4, 70% hitting.

Hanley Ramirez 261 AB 10 HR 42 RBI 10 SB .330 BA $46.46 (Patton $39.59)
Carlos Beltran 241 AB 8 HR 40 RBI 11 SB .336 BA $46.36 (Patton $38.57)

If anything, Rototimes seems to skew a little bit more toward the OF. We know that Patton's valuation system doesn't use position scarcity, so rather than assuming that Rototimes' system skews toward Beltran, I'd have to assume that it doesn't skew but that rather some of the calculations for each individual category are slightly different.

Felipe Lopez 267 AB 4 HR 16 RBI 5 SB .307 BA $22.86 (Patton $19.05)
Derrek Lee 218 AB 11 HR 37 RBI 0 SB ,294 BA $22.63 (Patton $22.09)

It's possible that the Rototimes calculator is skewing toward Lopez now, as there's a whopping $3.81 difference between their value for him and Patton's. However, I suspect that this has more to do with a Patton bias against steals or a Rototimes bias against batting average more than anything else. Let's find someone further down the charts who has very similar stats.

Alfonso Soriano 282 AB 14 HR 30 RBI 7 SB .227 BA -$0.75 (Patton $16.84)
Dan Uggla 247 AB 14 43 RBI 1 SB .223 BA -$0.86 (Patton 14.84)

The scarcity issue is nearly a non-issue as - once again - Rototimes favors an outfielder over a middle infielder. But what's going on with the crazy $17.59 gap between Patton and Rototimes.

Open a window and close a door...or something to that effect. While looking for position scarcity, I found out why the pricing gaps between the two systems are so large: batting average. Or - more likely - qualitative valuation.

Wow. This means that Rototimes' pricing - contrary to Brett's assertion back in April - might be worth paying attention to...even if we still believe that Patton's pricing is superior.

Mulling Over Splits

2009-06-23T22:55:00.002-04:00

Anonymous wonders...

Is there a proper way to use Snell now--say in day games, away, when he'll face a bunch of righties?

I don't know how to address this question about Snell without looking at how accurate splits are in determining future success in these very same splits.

Top 10 Home ERAs 2008 (min 80 IP @ home)

#	Player	'08 Home	'08 Road	+/-	'09 Home	'09 Road	+/-
1	Jake Peavy	1.74	4.28	+2.54	3.58	4.60	+1.02
2	Rich Harden	1.79	2.50	+0.71	6.56	2.84	-3.72
3	Johan Santana	2.09	3.00	+0.91	2.18	4.79	+2.61
4	Derek Lowe	2.30	4.42	+2.12	3.27	4.84	+1.57
5	Cliff Lee	2.45	2.61	+0.16	2.21	3.83	+1.62
6	Jon Lester	2.49	4.09	+1.60	4.01	5.36	+1.35
7	James Shields	2.59	4.82	+2.23	3.07	3.72	+0.60
8	Odalis Perez	2.65	6.44	+3.79	N/A	N/A	-
9	Mark Buehrle	2.65	5.05	+2.40	2.68	3.83	+1.15
10	Jesse Litsch	2.77	4.32	+1.55	7.50	12.00	+4.50

With the exceptions of Harden and Perez, every one of these pitchers has also been better at home in 2009.

Not all of these splits are created equal, though. Lester's cratered across the board, but definitely isn't as dominant in Fenway this year as he was in 2008. Lee's only been dominant at Progressive Field, though many of his struggles came in his first couple starts of the season. I don't know what to make of the fact the Lowe has a 3.27 ERA at home; I thought that he was going to slip significantly this year because he was no longer pitching in the graveyard that is Dodger Stadium, but he seems to be getting a lift in Atlanta anyway.

In a few cases, these numbers kind of confirm what we already know. Peavy and Santana pitch in pretty favorable venues. Shields doesn't but - for whatever reason - seems to like pitching at the Trop.

There are also some surprises, though. Mark Buehrle pitches better at the launching pad he calls home? Litsch was that good in Toronto? Perez was that good anywhere?

If you are going to look at home/road splits, it is worth looking at at least two years worth of trendlines. Getting back to Snell's splits they look something like this:

2008 Day/Night: 7.71/4.64
2009 Day/Night: 2.53/7.21

2008 Home/Away: 4.50/6.22
2009 Home/Away: 5.76/5.12

2008 Left/Right: 911 OPS/805 OPS
2009 Left/Right: 870/841

For Snell, this year's numbers don't really follow any significant trends. He's a little better against righties, but his other numbers are putrid enough that I wouldn't start him against a righty-heavy line-up simply based on that.

N.L. FAAB Log: June 22, 2009

2009-06-22T01:03:00.002-04:00

Todd Wellemeyer $7.
On June 12, Wellemeyer admitted that he had inexplicably lost about 5 MPH on his fastball this year. As a result he was released and only one team out of 12 even took a shot on a $17 earner from last year. His start against Detroit this week was OK, but doesn't exactly inspire a ton of confidence that Wellemeyer is back to where he was in 2008. The team who made this bid needed to gamble, and that's what Wellemeyer is right now: a gamble that you should only take if you're desperate.

Stephen Pearce $6. Other bids $2, $1, $1.
Is Pearce a failed prospect yet? Did he ever have enough luster that we can really consider him that much of a failure? Esoteric questions aside, Pearce is back up with the Pirates for yet another go-round. At 26, this could be his last shot to impress, and John Russell admitted this weekend that he's going to have trouble finding PT for Pearce. If he does play, Pearce does offer some power potential and could sock a few HR out of your 5th OF or 3rd CO slot.

Matt Downs $3. Other bids $3, $2, $1, $1.
Downs is a 25-year-old fringe prospect who qualifies as more of a long-term utility player than as a future starting 2B. He's been getting almost all of the starts there for the Giants since his call-up, though, and he does have the potential to steal 15 bases if he can keep the starting gig. I think he's a poor bet to do that, but if you really need the steals, be aware that Downs stole 24 bags in the minors in '08 and is versatile enough that he could stick around as a utility guy even if he doesn't stick as a starter.

Jason Hammel $3.
I wrote about Hammel last week. He was knocked around a little bit by the Pirates at Coors this week. He gets a good match-up this week in Oakland, and might not be a bad match-up play.

Ian Snell $1.
The numbers against the Twins looked OK, but Snell didn't throw a lot of strikes, had a poor K/BB ratio, and was facing an injury-riddled line-up. He still looks like the shell of the pitcher he once was and even Joe Kerrigan isn't helping. I'd avoid against the Indians this week.

Josh Bard $1.
With Jesus Flores set to miss three months with a shoulder injury, Bard and Wil Nieves look like they're going to split time down the middle for the Nationals at catcher. Bard has shown that he can provide some decent pop at catcher with enough playing time and is worth a $1-3 bid if you have a dead spot at catcher. He's done next to nothing this year, though, and could also simply continue doing nothing.

David Ross $1.
Ross has been the beneficiary of a few day games after night games recently, but Brian McCann is locked in at catcher and Bobby Cox hasn't been willing to play Ross at DH. Ross definitely has power potential, and is an OK back-up backstop if you don't have two starters on your team and just want to take the shot at getting a few cheap HR.

Russ Ortiz $1.
Ortiz was pressed into starting duty for Felipe Paulino, but an impressive start against the Cubs and a solid one against the Rangers mean that he should get more opportunities going forward. He isn't going to blow anyone away, but he's kept hitters off balance with an assortment of off-speed pitches and is worth riding while he's hot. He's not a terrible two-start option at home against the Royals and Tigers this week.

Paul Janish $1.
Janish might get some AB with Alex Gonzalez going down, but Janish offers no power, not much speed, and is mostly in the majors due to his defense. Pass.

Pedro Feliciano $1.
Feliciano's been an extremely solid middle reliever for the Mets this year. He might get a handful of vulture opportunities with J.J. Putz out, especially after Bobby Parnell's disastrous outing today. However, his value is still limited as a middle reliever even in 4x4 leagues.

Mark DiFelice $1.
Fangraphs summed it up aptly. DiFelice throws slop, and doesn't hit 86 MPH on a good day, yet he gets righties out. He'll never close, and he's probably going to have some games where his "stuff" isn't working and he gets pounded, but he's definitely earned himself a major league career, and if he keeps pitching like this it's going to be a long one.

Rich Aurilia $1.
Aurilia used to provide a little pop at corner, but now it's starting to look like even that modicum of value he provided is disappearing. He's playing a little bit more right now than your average bench player, and a series at Oakland might buy him another start or two this week, but Aurilia's starting to look like a fading oldster who has reached the end of the line, both in the majors and in Roto.

A.L. FAAB Log: June 22, 2009

2009-06-22T00:12:00.002-04:00

Jeremy Accardo $21. Other bid $2.
Yikes. Accardo was the closer for the Jays in 2007 when B.J. Ryan went down early, but he was sent down at the end of Spring Training this year after a poor spring and there's nothing in the Toronto media or blogosphere to indicate that Accardo is in the mix to close. My guess is that Jason Frasor is probably the guy right now for the Blue Jays, followed by Ryan. In any bullpen that's in flux, it's certainly worth bidding a couple of bucks to see if someone will close. Just don't bid one fifth of your budget.

Mike Carp $11. Other bid $10.
Long-term, I don't know what to make of Carp. He's never been viewed as a top prospect by any of the touts, but he's always put up solid power numbers and could at the very least be a 15-20 HR guy in the majors given a full-time opportunity. I'd worry a little about his batting average; he's never hit over .300 in the minors, and could profile as a mere .250 hitter in the majors. Still, at his age (he turns 23 next week), I think he's got a decent shot to become a productive major league regular. All that being said, I don't see where he fits in for the Mariners this year. Russ Branyan is hitting the snot out of the ball, the M's aren't going to release Ken Griffey Jr., and Carp is probably better served getting a season's worth of AB at AAA Tacoma than he is leading cheers from the Seattle bench. This bid is only useful as a next year bid - and the Carp buyer here is presumably still playing for 2009.

Alfredo Figaro $5.
Figaro wasn't regarded as a prospect entering 2009, and entering '09 had had 19 good starts...at A-ball as a 23-year old. His numbers at AA Erie this year (68 IP, 4.10 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 59 K, 17 BB, 8 HR) were OK but nothing that screamed breakout. But Figaro put together a solid major league debut, allowing 2 ER in five IP and whiffing seven (although he did allow 10 baserunners). Figaro looks like a two-pitch pitcher in need of refinement. He throws hard and pounds the zone, but he's mostly a two pitch pitcher; his change isn't a plus pitch. Even though Figaro was hitting 96 on the gun, I don't think he's going to be as fortunate as he was against the Brewers long-term with the stuff he has. I like him long-term as a bullpen arm, but not as a starter, and for this year you're most definitely taking a risk.

Matt Guerrier $2. Other bid $1.
Despite his tendency to give up the long ball, Guerrier's been an extremely solid middle innings option for the Twins. Much of that is fueled by an atypical .199 BABIP, though. Guerrier's OK, but I don't think his interiors support him being this dynamic the rest of the way. He's a decent vulture candidate, but beware the long balls.

Brandon Lyon $2.
I talked a little bit about the Tigers bullpen last week. Lyon's been very reliable in June and Rodney's walks make me very nervous, but there doesn't seem to be any kind of indication that the Tigers are going to make a switch here, as Rodney's still a stellar 13-for-13 in save opportunities. Lyon's worth grabbing if you need a set-up on a good team who might vulture some wins, but don't expect a mid-season closer here.

Don Kelly $1.
Kelly was putting up some solid numbers at AAA before the Tigers called him up, but he's a 29-year-old non-prospect who is more of an organizational soldier than someone to watch. He does run a little bit and the Tigers are playing him now and again, so he might be worth $1 in very deep leagues where you're dying for speed. Otherwise, he's not worth it.

D.J. Carrasco $1.
Carrasco's a 32-year-old journeyman who revived his career in AAA for the White Sox last year. He's a middle reliever/mop up man, though, and is of very limited value even in 4x4.

Derek Holland. Claimed by 9th, 5th (tie), 4th, and 12th place teams.
An impressive prospect who I wrote about earlier this year, Holland had really struggled in his first few turns through the rotation but looked like a different pitcher against the Giants. Holland credited the strong start to working more efficiently in the strike zone (which has been the Rangers' philosophy all year), but I think part of it was that he was facing a weaker N.L. offense. Holland still has a good deal of long-term potential, but in leagues where you must bid and can't make a waiver claim, I'd be wary of completely buying into a turnaround based on one start.

Ramon Santiago. Claimed by 8th and 4th place teams.
After a torrid May where Santiago slugged over 600, he's come crashing down to Earth in June, slugging about 350. His versatility will give him 2-3 starts a week, but even at middle infield Santiago is a third MI at best in deeper leagues.

Rotisserie Baseball and the Replacement Player

2009-06-20T22:41:00.003-04:00

Earlier this season as I was kvetching about non-Patton Player Values (as I'm wont to do), both Rotoman and Brett talked a little bit about how "replacement level" players are factored in to some Rotisserie pricing systems.

Like Rotoman said, maybe they calculate replacement level on a position-by-position basis (and they should)...

Instinctively, I have a problem with the idea of the "replacement" level player in Rotisserie and how it impacts (or, more accurately, doesn't impact valuation). But as a starting point for this article, I thought I'd take a look at how valuable a representative pool of free agents were position by position.

Billy Almon Brown Graduate 2007-2008
Free Agent Value by Position

Pos	Year	Avg Value
CO	2007	$6.0
OF	2007	$5.3
OF	2008	$5.3
MI	2008	$4.8
CO	2008	$3.1
MI	2007	$2.0
C	2007	$0.9
C	2008	$0.5

While outfielders are valuable, they weren't the most valuable in my American League the last two years. That honor would go to the corners in 2007. But that's because Carlos Pena was available via FAAB that year. Take Pena out and the average CO value plummets to $2.4 per player.

So Pena's an anomaly, one could argue. But isn't he, by definition, a "replacement" player? Yes (at least in this league). So he should count.

In any event, how do I calculate "replacement-level" value for Rotisserie? If I had used 2007's average middle infield replacement values to do so, I would have overpaid for middle infielders in 2008...especially considering that Mike Aviles (earned $19), Jamey Carroll ($8), Willie Bloomquist ($7), and Brendan Harris ($7) were coming along.

I guess I could decide to discount outfielders because it's more likely that I'm going to get a $5 replacement level player from year to year than I am a corner or middle infielder. But while I know this with certainly at the end of the season, I don't during the season. Franklin Gutierrez ($11), Victor Diaz ($5), and Josh Rabe (-$1) all went for the same FAAB bid on the same week in 2007. I'm a little uncomfortable discounting stats too much for my outfield pool "knowing" that Gutierrez is coming along since I don't know that it's Gutierrez coming along but an OF who will earn $11.

Is there some merit to the idea of paying certain players more based on position? Probably. Is it something that can be measured? Perhaps, but I believe there is too much fluctuation from year to year in deep leagues to offer a reliable yardstick.

N.L. FAAB Supplemental: Kyle Blanks

2009-06-20T13:07:00.002-04:00

The #1 prospect in the Padres system entering 2009 (according to John Sickels), Blanks is a tremendous hitting prospect whose best shot on a National League team is at 1B. This poses a problem, as for some odd reason San Diego is pretty attached to that Gonzalez guy they have playing there now. The good news for Rotisserie players is that the Padres have already started him twice in left field, and it looks like they're going to give Blanks' defense there a try and see if he can be a passable defender. Despite a subpar year-to-date at AAA Portland, there are few doubts amongst the scouts about Blanks' bat. His upside is probably as a .280 hitter with 25-30 HR power at his peak, and I might be giving him the short shrift based on his Portland numbers; Blanks has been young at every level he's played at and until this year has taken names at every stop. I'd bid $23 and hope that his defense is good enough to keep in the line-up. Even with Petco potentially depressing Blanks' power potential, he's still a good enough prospect that it won't matter.

Mays Campbell?

2009-06-19T23:09:00.003-04:00

I started doing a little writing about player valuation systems back in April, and Rotoman weighed in with this:

I would also recommend a visit to Mays Campbell's LastManStanding.com. He's created his own player rater, which most decidedly incorporates position scarcity adjustments. He's also harshly critical of the Rototimes Player Rater, for reasons that weren't clear to me.

I tried the link, and it was one of those links that works but takes you to a site that is nothing but links to non-related sites. I searched Google for Mays Campbell and couldn't find jack.

Does anyone out there know what Rotoman is referring to?

Another Look at Closers: National League

2009-06-18T23:05:00.003-04:00

Last night, I went around the American League and looked at five bullpens of interest. Tonight, I'll do the same with the National League.

Arizona: As long as he's healthy, Chad Qualls is going to close games in Arizona, but Qualls admitted last week that he's been pitching with a sore forearm and he expects the pain to linger all year. This isn't a good sign, particularly for a team that's way out of first in the N.L. West and could feasibly shut Qualls down if the injury persists. Speculation in the Roto community is that Tony Pena would close if Qualls can't, but I think it would be Jon Rauch. After a terrible April, Rauch has settled in, putting up a 3.26 ERA with a 1.241 WHIP from May forward. By contrast, Pena has struggled in June with a 9.00 ERA and a .348 BAA. Pena might be the better pitcher, but remember, managers tend to go with the hot hand, not the cold one. If Qualls goes down, I'd look for Rauch to get the first few opportunities.

Chicago: Kevin Gregg has been predictably "meh." He's getting the saves, but his 4.13 ERA is boring, his 1.45 WHIP is bad, and his 1.59 HR/9 rate is the kind of thing that gives managers migraines. However, the story in this bullpen has been the implosion of Carlos Marmol. Thanks to his heat, Marmol's overall numbers are fine, but he's walked 30 batters in 30 1/3 IP. Lou Pinella says he still trusts Marmol, but I suspect that Marmol's on a short leash. If something happened to Gregg, I actually like converted starter Angel Guzman for the last three outs. His numbers are good, his peripherals are nearly perfect, and he has a wicked split against left-handed hitters...a plus for a righty.

Colorado: There was a lot of hand-wringing about Street at the beginning of the year, but he more than proved himself as the Rockies closer. The only knock is the HR, but given his strong K/IP rate, even that is forgivable. Unless there's a trade, I'd imagine that Street would close here for the rest of the year.

Florida: Like Marmol, Lindstrom has had a significant problem with walks; one that is so significant that there are more frequent rumors out of Florida that Lindstrom might lose the job. Freddy Gonzalez gave Lindstrom a vote of confidence, but if Lindstrom continues to struggle Leo Nunez might get the call. One thing to consider here is that this is one of those odd situations where Lindstrom is 12-for-14 in save opportunities. Yes, the stat doesn't speak to how bad Lindstrom has pitched, but to some major league managers, it's all that matters. I think Lindstrom would have to go on a streak of 2-3 blown saves to lose the job.

Washington: Mike MacDougal was buried so far down on the White Sox bullpen depth chart that there were some people in the stands who had a better chance of picking up the stray save than he did. But now he's the closer in Washington, saving back-to-back games against the New York Yankees, of all teams. MacDougal throws hard, still doesn't have great control, but has gone on hot streaks before. I guess he's the closer, but given that Manny Acta changes closers the way some people change their pants, I still wouldn't spend much in trade to get MacDougal.

Another Look at Closers: American League

2009-06-17T21:14:00.003-04:00

It's not my favorite column to write, but everyone loves reading about closers. Including me. I religiously read Thor Nystrom's Saves and Steals column over at Rotoworld, and I try to read Fangraphs' A.L. and N.L. breakdowns as well.

(I was also reading Bullpen Box Score as well but - like a lot of nascent blogs - after a promising start there hasn't been any copy since late April. It's too bad...the writing over there was very good, and there is definitely always a segment of Roto owners who love reading about closers).

Tonight, I'll take a look at five A.L. closers/bullpens where I feel like conventional (Roto) wisdom isn't quite telling the whole story.

Baltimore: George Sherrill stinks. George Sherrill is a bottom-of-the-barrel-closer. George Sherrill is a borderline option in mixed leagues. I've heard this refrain so much that I even got fooled. His numbers so far (2.55 ERA, 1.176 WHIP, 23 K in 24 23/ IP entering tonight) are better than those for a few "better" A.L.-only closers, but Sherrill still gets talked about like he's trash. Sherrill's numbers are even more impressive when you consider that he was shaky in April and The Baltimore Sun talked of a closer-by-committee scenario in Birdland. Since May 1, Sherrill has a 1.2 ERA and a 0.933 WHIP. He has a death grip on the job right now, and only a trade will unseat him.

Cleveland: On May 19, Kerry Wood was shelled by the Royals - giving up 4 ER in 2/3 of an inning, pushing his ERA up to 8.31 and blowing his second save of the season. Since then, he's thrown up 9 1/3 scoreless innings, allowed six baserunners, 0 ER, and has eight whiffs. The downside is that he hasn't had a save since May 28. Typically, save opportunities more or less even out over time, so I'd be pretty confident at the moment that Wood has gotten past his early season yips and is going to be the high second-tier option we all believed he'd be back on Opening Day going forward.

Detroit: The CW on Fernando Rodney at the beginning of the year was that he was terrible and that Joel Zumaya would be taking over any day now. It isn't until recently that the CW has flipped. Now the party line is that he hasn't been any great shakes as the Tigers' closer, but that he's been OK. However, Rodney's very quietly put up a putrid June, with a 10.80 ERA in 5 IP. Perhaps more importantly, he's walked five batters this month after walking six in his first 21 IP. Rodney's downfall has always been the walks, so this is something to watch. He's still 12-for-12 in save ops, so I don't think Jim Leyland will make a change unless Rodney starts coughing up some leads. But I'd keep an eye on Brandon Lyon. He's tossed 11 scoreless innings in June with 9 whiffs and a .059 BAA. If Rodney does falter, I expect Lyon - and not Zumaya - to get the ball.

Tampa Bay: J.P. Howell has picked up two of the last three Rays save opportunities, and would seem to be the man (I emphasize the lowercase "m" in "man") at the moment. There isn't really a great option here, though, and since I've been talking about the hot hand throughout this post, keep Joe Nelson's name in mind: the journeyman reliever hasn't allowed a run in June, and a swoon by Howell could put Nelson in line to get the ball the next time Joe Madden needs to make the call in the 9th.

Toronto: Scott Downs went on the DL tonight, so the Jays closer role is probably up for grabs. B.J. Ryan came in to the 9th tonight in a non-save situation and promptly struggled. He couldn't finish the inning and Brandon League had to come in to try and clean up the mess. I don't have any good insights or inside information on who might get the saves while Downs is out, but I think that Cito Gaston is going to go with Jason Frasor. Frasor has pitched well all year long and definitely has earned Cito's trust a lot more than Ryan has. Just a hunch right now, though.

Tomorrow night I'll touch on the National League.

Raising and Lowering Inflation: A Misunderstood Concept

2009-06-16T22:58:00.002-04:00

I was going through some old posts tonight, and I noticed a comment I should have responded to earlier:

say I have a guy at $34 who is worth $32. Inflated, his value is $40, so he should be kept.

But now since I'm keeping him, the inflation rate is lower.

In this example, the inflation rate would actually be higher.

This example is using a 25% inflation rate. For the sake of simplicity, let's pretend that my sample league has $2000 to spend on $1600 worth of players.

Player A is worth $32 and at a $34 salary. There is now $1966 to spend on $1568 worth of players. The inflation rate has gone up from 25% to 25.4%.

Why is this?

Once rosters are frozen, the inflation value is the new standard. The $32 player is now a $40 with inflation. If you had him at $34, you should have kept him, since even at $37 or $38 he would have been a relative bargain.

Owners get confused by this concept because they assume that any player kept over his non-inflation value is an overpay. That's true, but that is also separate from the concept of inflated value.

The only time an overpriced player brings inflation down is if his price divided by his value is higher than the league's inflation rate. Using the $2000 example again, a league with three percent inflation would have that same $2000 to spend on $1941 worth of talent. Add the $32 player at a $34 salary to this league, and you would not have $1966 to spend on $1909 worth of talent. This would leave you with a 2.99% inflation rate...slightly lowering the inflation.

The simple calculation, then, would be to take the player's salary divided by his value and figure out how much he is individually inflated. In this example, the $34 player is inflated by 6.25%. If you know your league's "typical" inflation rate, that should tell you whether or not keeping him will push inflation down or up. There are certainly other factors at play, but you most definitely want to know what your $32 valued player will go for in the auction if you throw him back, and knowing that he'll push inflation up makes for a good framework to begin the decision making process.