Last year's best National League pitchers were hit or miss. This year's crop was pretty reliable.
Top 10 Salaries, N.L. Pitchers
# | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | PK | SW | '09 |
1 | Tim Lincecum | $22 | $36 | -14 | $36 | $39 | $38 |
2 | Roy Halladay | $38 | $31 | +7 | $35 | $38 | $37 |
3 | Dan Haren | $6 | $29 | -22 | $33 | $29 | $33 |
4 | Jonathan Broxton | $10 | $26 | -16 | $25 | $26 | $26 |
5 | Adam Wainwright | $35 | $25 | +11 | $28 | $26 | $32 |
6 | Johan Santana | $20 | $25 | -5 | $32 | $22 | $21 |
7 | Josh Johnson | $26 | $23 | +3 | $23 | $21 | $26 |
8 | Tommy Hanson | $19 | $23 | -4 | $18 | $22 | $18 |
9 | Chris Carpenter | $24 | $23 | +1 | $28 | $23 | $33 |
10 | Cole Hamels | $23 | $23 | -0 | $23 | $17 | $13 |
Average | $22 | $26 | -4 | $28 | $26 | $28 |
The only single-digit earner was Haren. Seven of the 10 pitchers here earned $20 or more, compared only four $20+ earners the year before. There were fewer "superstars" ($30+ earners) on this chart in 2010, but as a whole this group was more reliable. When the third worst pitcher on this chart earns $19, that's really reliable.
I can't blame the market or Sports Weekly for backing off of these guys. And as reliable as this group is, both the market and Sports Weekly come closest to the group's 2010 earnings. Unlike some of the other hitters and pitchers I've looked at, Rotoman's high price is less a product of aggressive pricing across the board and more a product of some strong prices for a handful of names.
As a result, he only "wins" out on Haren, Wainwright, Santana and Carpenter in a three-way fight with the market and Sports Weekly. SW gets Lincecum and Halladay outright, while the market only gets Hanson. There are a number of ties: the market and SW on Broxton, and the market and Rotoman on Hamels and Johnson.
If you avoided Broxton or Haren, this was a great place to spend your money. Only four of these pitchers were in the next chart, but eight of them barely missed cracking it.
Top 10 Earnings, N.L. Pitchers
# | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | PK | SW | '09 |
1 | Roy Halladay | $38 | $31 | +7 | $35 | $38 | $37 |
2 | Adam Wainwright | $35 | $25 | +11 | $28 | $26 | $32 |
3 | Ubaldo Jimenez | $29 | $20 | +9 | $14 | $17 | $24 |
4 | Roy Oswalt | $29 | $16 | +13 | $17 | $13 | $13 |
5 | Billy Wagner | $27 | $17 | +10 | $17 | $19 | $4 |
6 | Josh Johnson | $26 | $23 | +3 | $23 | $21 | $26 |
7 | Mat Latos | $25 | $8 | +17 | $8 | $2 | $3 |
8 | Tim Hudson | $25 | $11 | +14 | $9 | $11 | $2 |
9 | Matt Cain | $25 | $20 | +5 | $26 | $18 | $26 |
10 | Heath Bell | $24 | $19 | +5 | $21 | $23 | $23 |
Average | $28 | $19 | +9 | $20 | $19 | $19 |
I covered a good deal of this ground in my N.L. starting pitcher write-up because the N.L. market simply doesn't spend big bucks on relievers, and those relievers live down to their expectations by not earnings those big bucks.
For the second year in a row, the market paid $19 on average for these pitchers. This isn't cheap; $19 doesn't leave much room for surprises and - sure enough - Latos is the only pitcher in single digits.
There is a very narrow range of opinion on these guys across the board. Rotoman's $20 average salary is the only variable across the board, as everyone else (including 2009) goes with that magical $19 number.
The result is that no one stands out among the touts and the market - a definite symptom of Stage Three. Rotoman wins out on a plurality of pitchers but isn't head and shoulders above the pack. The relative predictability of the market means that while there might be some preferences expressed here, there isn't a big winner or big loser relatively to how these pitchers actually did.
Top 10 Profits, N.L. Pitchers
# | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | PK | SW | '09 |
1 | Mat Latos | $25 | $8 | +17 | $8 | $2 | $3 |
2 | Hong-Chih Kuo | $17 | $1 | +16 | $1 | $1 | $4 |
3 | Jaime Garcia | $17 | $2 | +15 | $2 | ||
4 | Brett Myers | $21 | $6 | +14 | $5 | $1 | $3 |
5 | Tim Hudson | $25 | $11 | +14 | $9 | $11 | $2 |
6 | Bronson Arroyo | $19 | $5 | +14 | $9 | $2 | $17 |
7 | Tyler Clippard | $14 | $1 | +13 | $2 | $9 | |
8 | Roy Oswalt | $29 | $16 | +13 | $17 | $13 | $13 |
9 | Evan Meek | $13 | $0 | +13 | $3 | $3 | |
10 | Sean Marshall | $12 | $1 | +11 | $1 | $3 | |
Average | $19 | $5 | +14 | $6 | $3 | $6 |
This list is an interesting shift from the previous year's chart. In 2009, young arms dominated the list; here there's a pretty eclectic mix of young pitchers, cagey vets, and even a few relievers thrown in for good measure. There are four relievers to be exact, and two of those relievers - Clippard and Marshall - didn't generate significant value from their saves. Amazingly enough, there wasn't a single middle reliever in 2009 who turned a double-digit profit.
The inclusion of so many relievers alters the composition of this chart somewhat. Only Rotoman is relatively aggressive with any of them, giving Meek a $3 bid limit and Clippard a $2 bid limit. His prices seem to intuit what I said in my post about American League relievers: compared to the starters near the bottom of the barrel, the $1-2 relievers are typically a better investment.
It can't be said that anyone could have seen these guys coming, though. Even the 2009 column isn't as robust as it sometimes is in these cases. Only Arroyo and Clippard received significant pay cuts from what they did the year before, and there are more than a few raises. I can't blame the market for collectively yawning here.
The lone surprise in both this chart and the next one are the number of relievers.
Top 10 Losses, N.L. Pitchers
# | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | PK | SW | '09 |
1 | Dan Haren | $6 | $29 | -22 | $33 | $29 | $33 |
2 | Chad Qualls | -$3 | $16 | -19 | $15 | $17 | $12 |
3 | Jonathan Broxton | $10 | $26 | -16 | $25 | $26 | $26 |
4 | Trevor Hoffman | $1 | $16 | -15 | $16 | $16 | $21 |
5 | Tim Lincecum | $22 | $36 | -14 | $36 | $39 | $38 |
6 | Jair Jurrjens | $4 | $17 | -13 | $20 | $12 | $26 |
7 | Kyle Lohse | -$9 | $4 | -13 | $2 | $4 | |
8 | Charlie Morton | -$9 | $2 | -11 | $2 | $1 | $2 |
9 | Edwin Jackson | -$1 | $11 | -11 | $10 | $6 | $23 |
10 | Aaron Harang | -$2 | $9 | -11 | $6 | $6 | $7 |
Average | $2 | $17 | -15 | $16 | $15 | $19 |
Given the market's lukewarm feelings about relievers, it's a little surprising to see Qualls, Broxton, and Hoffman 2-4 on this chart. But there they are.
Rotoman comes out with the highest average salary here, but once again it is because he's aggressive on some pitchers and not slightly ahead of the pack across the board. He only goes higher on Haren and Jurrjens outright. The market gets Lohse, Jackson, and Harang, while Sports Weekly gets Qualls and Lincecum. There are plenty of ties.
Just like Greinke saves the A.L. busts, Lincecum does the same here for the N.L. His $22 earnings keep this entire group in the black. Five pitchers here not only fail to earn their salary, but lose money. Even at a minimal investment, Lohse and Morton were too much for their owners to handle.
3 comments:
Can you confirm/remind that all your $s are 5x5? Have you posted your formulae?
THANKS for RTT!
LynchMOB
OK ... I found the confirmation/reminder I was looking for ...
http://rotothinktank.blogspot.com/2009/11/2009-al-catchers.html
Now, confirm/remind me what your source is for the "Sal" column? Is it still "The Sal column is the average price of three expert leagues: Tout Wars, Sports Weekly, and CBS Sportsline" (per http://rotothinktank.blogspot.com/2008/11/2008-al-catchers.html)
I bought Haren, Lincecum, Hoffman, and Qualls at my startup league's auction -- this is also Mike's home league. I have no idea how I finished in 2nd with these 4.
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