Thursday, January 27, 2011

Notes for Masochists: How My Prices Were Derived

After (presumably) reading through my 2010 position-by-position recaps, Howard asks:
Can you confirm/remind that all your $s are 5x5? Have you posted your formulae?
I decided to shift my pricing from 4x4 to 5x5 after the 2009 season. Most of my readers use 5x5 and just about every expert league I can find uses the 5x5 format. I'm still in one 4x4 league, but since my audience continues to grow, I thought it would be better to cater to my readers and not the other way around.

My pricing formulas are modeled after Alex Patton's pricing model. I haven't posted the prices in the past because I've worried that they're proprietary, but for the last few years Alex has offered his Evaluator program for free and the program does include his formulas (Rotoman is a regular visitor here, so if he believes that the prices are proprietary, I will pull this post ASAP).

My formulas are listed below. If you want to try and get a handle on how these work, I strongly recommend checking out Patton's Notes for Masochists from his old books.

American League
$R 2.35 * R/31.13
$HR 2.35 * HR/8.8
$RBI 2.35 * RBI/30.13
$SB 2.35 * SB/8.07
$BA 2.35 * ((1457.17 + H) / (5500 + AB) - .26494) / .0016

$W 2.35 * W/4.47
$SV 2.35 * SV/8.58
$ERA 2.35 * ((3.9736 - ((ER + 529.81) / (IP + 1200)*9))/0.07)
$WHIP2.35 * (11.6558 - ((H + BB + 1554.11 )/ (IP + 1200)*9))/0.11
$K 2.35 * K/52.2

National League
$R 2.35 * R/31.12
$HR 2.35 * HR/8.72
$RBI 2.35 * RBI/29.96
$SB 2.35 * SB/7.36
$BA 2.35 * ((1459.37 + H) / (5500 + AB) - .26534) / .0016

$W 2.35 * W/4.47
$SV 2.35 * SV/8.58
$ERA 2.35 * ((3.7757 - ((ER + 503.43) / (IP + 1200)*9))/0.07)
$WHIP 2.35 * (11.6969 - ((H + BB + 1559.58) / (IP + 1200)*9))/0.11
$K 2.35 * K/50.7

One minor difference between what Alex does and what I do is that I don't adjust the wins denominator for interleague play. Sure, one league might win more than the other in any given year, but the difference is negligible.

If Howard or anyone else is interested in discussing this further, I'd be happy to do so. However, I already feel like we've spent way too much time discussing how this particular sausage is made.

5 comments:

Eugene Freedman said...

Mike,

I would like to know if you derive your ERA/Ratio/BAvg numbers based upon league averages or rotisserie league averages and where you get the IP and AB factors that you include in those formulae?

If not for this masochist stuff what good is the retrospective discussions?

Eugene

NSH said...

It is fascinating (at least to me, an old masochist) to compare denominators presumably not league specific with those in any given league (such as our AL 5x5). Horseshoe close (that is, similar ranges) but enough different to make me wonder if it reveals some play I could leverage in my league. That is, will the differences reveal a spot or two where my league is behind the curve and I might be able to exploit before they catch up?

Rob said...

How would one go about finding a value for OBP instead of BA?

Howard Lynch said...

Hmmm ... *love* the sausage! THANKS!

T.J. said...

FWIW, I'm the "young man (once)" who scanned the Notes for Masochists in for Peter and Alex. And Peter's right: I ain't young no more.