National League closers might not be predictable, but the National League closer market certainly has been the last two years.
Ten Most Expensive N.L. Relievers 2010
# | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | PK | CBS | '09 |
1 | Jonathan Broxton | $10 | $26 | -16 | $25 | $20 | $26 |
2 | Francisco Rodriguez | $16 | $20 | -4 | $22 | $17 | $16 |
3 | Brian Wilson | $24 | $19 | +5 | $17 | $18 | $21 |
4 | Heath Bell | $24 | $19 | +5 | $21 | $18 | $23 |
5 | Billy Wagner | $27 | $17 | +10 | $17 | $15 | $4 |
6 | Francisco Cordero | $15 | $17 | -1 | $18 | $15 | $18 |
7 | Trevor Hoffman | $1 | $16 | -15 | $16 | $16 | $21 |
8 | Chad Qualls | -$3 | $16 | -19 | $15 | $14 | $12 |
9 | Carlos Marmol | $22 | $16 | +6 | $17 | $14 | $10 |
10 | Ryan Franklin | $16 | $16 | 0 | $15 | $16 | $19 |
Average | $15 | $18 | -3 | $18 | $16 | $17 |
There are years where closers are in flux and other years where the environment is fairly stable. In terms of the pitchers in the role, the National League was incredibly stable last year. Eight of the names listed above were also on the 2009 chart, with Wagner and Hoffman replacing Valverde and Capps.
We're not paying so much for the stats here, but rather for the role and the stability we hope every one of these pitchers will have in the role. The market tries to ding these guys as much as they can, but even so doesn't quite ding enough.
The three dollar loss per pitcher is misleading, though. Broxton, Qualls and Hoffman are big losses that drag down what is otherwise a fairly successful group. In this case, success is measured primarily by whether or not a pitcher got you your saves. The four $20+ earners in this chart - Wilson, Bell, Wagner, and Marmol - earned most of or nearly most of their money in saves:
Percentage of $ earned in saves 2010
Brian Wilson = 54%
Heath Bell = 53%
Carlos Marmol = 48%
Billy Wagner = 37%
In many ways, the earnings column tells us how reliable these pitchers were at procuring those saves - and how predictable those saves were. Closers need other categories to earn more that what we pay for them, but even if a high strikeout guy like Marmol flames out and winds up in a set-up role, you're going to lose money.
Next Ten (11-20) Most Expensive N.L. Relievers 2010
# | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | PK | CBS | '09 |
11 | Huston Street | $12 | $15 | -3 | $11 | $18 | $21 |
12 | Leo Nunez | $14 | $12 | +2 | $12 | $13 | $13 |
13 | Matt Capps | $12 | $12 | 0 | $15 | $11 | $6 |
14 | Brad Lidge | $12 | $11 | +1 | $13 | $13 | $2 |
15 | Octavio Dotel | $10 | $11 | -1 | $8 | $5 | $7 |
16 | Matt Lindstrom | $6 | $9 | -3 | $9 | $8 | $2 |
17 | Brandon Lyon | $13 | $6 | +7 | $4 | $8 | $13 |
18 | Ardolis Chapman | $3 | $5 | -2 | R1 | $4 | |
19 | Ryan Madson | $11 | $5 | +7 | $5 | $9 | $12 |
20 | Takashi Saito | $8 | $4 | +4 | $2 | $6 | $8 |
Average | $10 | $9 | +1 | $8 | $10 | $8 |
I find it noteworthy that not a single pitcher on this chart earned more than $14. There is typically a $20+ earner lurking in the weeds who slips into the end game; in 2010, John Axford at $17 was the best performing reliever who didn't cost $16 or more. The 10 pitchers here were certainly good, but a stalwart didn't emerge.
Nor was there a sneaky one-two combo that you could have taken that would have paid huge dividends. Grabbing Lyon and Nunez would have given you a slight tactical advantage over the owner who bought Wilson or Bell, but probably not a league-winning advantage. If you wanted a leg up in the category, you had to pay for it last year.
Just like in the American League, middle relievers were cheap last year and did well as a group.
Next Ten (21-30) Most Expensive N.L. Relievers 2010
# | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | PK | CBS | '09 |
21 | Jason Motte | $9 | $3 | +5 | $3 | $2 | $3 |
22 | Mike Adams | $11 | $3 | +9 | $1 | $8 | $10 |
23 | Drew Storen | $6 | $2 | +4 | R2 | $3 | |
24 | Luke Gregerson | $13 | $2 | +11 | $1 | $6 | $9 |
25 | George Sherrill | -$4 | $2 | -6 | $2 | $9 | $17 |
26 | Sergio Romo | $12 | $2 | +10 | $1 | $7 | $6 |
27 | Franklin Morales | -$2 | $2 | -4 | $3 | $1 | $4 |
28 | Juan Gutierrez | $4 | $2 | +2 | $3 | $7 | $7 |
29 | Rafael Betancourt | $10 | $1 | +9 | $1 | $7 | $10 |
30 | Hong-Chih Kuo | $17 | $1 | +16 | $1 | $6 | $4 |
Average | $8 | $2 | +6 | $2 | $6 | $7 |
With apologies to you Morales and Sherill owners, this group on the whole was a really nice place to put your money last year. Five pitchers earned in double-digits, with Motte coming awfully close.
And as I also said in the American League post on relievers, these guys are super cheap. Owners continue to insist on paying money for starting pitching when they'd be better off spending a little more money on some of these relievers.
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