But not this radical.
Ten Most Expensive N.L. Relievers 2009
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | MF | SW | '08 |
| 1 | Brad Lidge | $2 | $24 | -21 | $24 | $22 | $23 |
| 2 | Francisco Rodriguez | $16 | $23 | -7 | $24 | $27 | $26 |
| 3 | Carlos Marmol | $10 | $20 | -10 | $10 | $24 | $18 |
| 4 | Jonathan Broxton | $26 | $19 | +7 | $16 | $23 | $14 |
| 5 | Jose Valverde | $16 | $19 | -3 | $21 | $21 | $23 |
| 6 | Matt Capps | $6 | $17 | -11 | $19 | $21 | $14 |
| 7 | Chad Qualls | $12 | $16 | -4 | $13 | $13 | $14 |
| 8 | Francisco Cordero | $18 | $15 | +3 | $20 | $20 | $17 |
| 9 | Heath Bell | $23 | $15 | +8 | $15 | $19 | $10 |
| 10 | Brian Wilson | $21 | $14 | +7 | $12 | $16 | $15 |
| Average | $15 | $18 | -3 | $17 | $21 | $17 |
Thirty-dollar closers go the way of the dinosaur in 5x5. Seven closers cracked the $30 barrier in 2009 in 4x4, while only Broxton could get past $25 in 5x5. The market intuits this, and cheats these guys as much as it can.
Yet even with this relative penny pinching, it's not enough. The market falls $3 short on these players despite the relatively modest price tag. Sports Weekly is a little more conservative than it was last year yet still sets the pace for these pitchers. In a three-way battle with Patton and the market, it gets everyone or a share of everyone except for Lidge and Qualls. Mike Fenger - subbing ably for Alex Patton's 4x4 prices with his own 5x5 spin - only gets a piece of Lidge and Valverde.
As usual, the prices here are more about how well these pitchers are expected to do as closers and how many saves they'll accrue. Lidge and K-Rod are the only ones here who are treated as relative studs, while Marmol sees his price dip from the CBS, LABR, and Tout Wars auctions but the Tout Warriors can still only go as low as $16 in late March.
If you avoid the top closers, the hope in 5x5 is that you'll be able to cheap out and spend $10-12 on a second tier guy, but the results of that strategy in '09 were mixed.
Next Ten (11-20) Most Expensive N.L. Relievers 2009
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | MF | SW | '08 |
| 11 | Mike Gonzalez | $15 | $13 | +1 | $12 | $17 | $7 |
| 12 | Trevor Hoffman | $21 | $13 | +8 | $13 | $15 | $15 |
| 13 | Joel Hanrahan | $1 | $12 | -11 | $9 | $11 | $11 |
| 14 | Matt Lindstrom | $2 | $12 | -9 | $11 | $15 | $6 |
| 15 | Huston Street | $21 | $10 | +11 | $10 | $18 | $15 |
| 16 | Chris Perez | $2 | $9 | -7 | R1 | $8 | $7 |
| 17 | J.J. Putz | -$0 | $7 | -8 | $5 | $5 | $9 |
| 18 | Manny Corpas | -$1 | $7 | -8 | $8 | $9 | $3 |
| 19 | Jason Motte | $3 | $6 | -3 | $10 | $9 | $3 |
| 20 | Sean Marshall | $3 | $5 | -2 | $5 | $2 | $6 |
| Average | $7 | $9 | -3 | $8 | $11 | $8 |
Hoffman and Street paid dividends, Gonzalez paid modest dividends, and everyone else fell flat.
Even the anticipated stud set-ups/closers in waiting were of virtually no help. Putz and Corpas failed to offer any help at all. Tout Wars flipped the prices on Motte and Perez when it became apparent that Perez was not the guy, but neither one of them wound up being the guy in St. Louis.
As always, I like the plays on Hoffman and Street. Hoffman didn't get the strikeouts, but he got the saves and his qualitatives were stellar as they almost always are.
Sports Weekly is at long last spending their money in the pen. They "buy" Gonzalez, Hoffman, Lindstrom, and Street and then handcuff Street to Corpas. The market gets Hanrahan, Perez, Putz and half of Marshall. Fenger is left with only his half of Marshall and Motte.
The bargains/saves eventually have to come and they do below.
Next Ten (21-30) Most Expensive N.L. Relievers 2009
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | MF | SW | '08 |
| 21 | Kevin Gregg | $11 | $5 | +6 | $10 | $2 | $17 |
| 22 | Hong-Chih Kuo | $4 | $5 | -1 | $6 | $9 | $16 |
| 23 | Rafael Soriano | $18 | $4 | +15 | $7 | $7 | $3 |
| 24 | Carlos Villanueva | $2 | $4 | -1 | $9 | $7 | $8 |
| 25 | Jon Rauch | $3 | $3 | -0 | $6 | $4 | $12 |
| 26 | Ryan Madson | $12 | $2 | +10 | $3 | $6 | $10 |
| 27 | Leo Nunez | $13 | $2 | +11 | $2 | $4 | $6 |
| 28 | James McDonald | $4 | $2 | +2 | $3 | $1 | |
| 29 | Tony Pena | $3 | $2 | +1 | $4 | $4 | $5 |
| 30 | Cla Meredith | $1 | $2 | -1 | $1 | $2 | |
| Average | $7 | $3 | +4 | $5 | $5 | $8 |
The biggest difference from 5x5 to 4x4 is that there almost always have to be some saves attached to a middle relief candidate to make him valuable. Madson put up some solid qualitatives, but if he hadn't been saving some games there in the second half, his earnings would have been a little more modest.
The other side of that coin is that these guys also aren't going to lose all that much money. Having Villanueva only earn $2 is certainly disappointing, but he lost $2 in 5x5. Filling out the back of your staff with one or two of these guys at $2-3 isn't a bad idea.
It's a slightly better idea than waiting for the very end.
Next Ten (31-40) Most Expensive N.L. Relievers 2009
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | MF | SW | '08 |
| 31 | Ryan Franklin | $19 | $2 | +18 | $3 | $10 | |
| 32 | Aaron Heilman | $5 | $2 | +3 | $4 | $1 | $2 |
| 33 | Jorge Campillo | $0 | $2 | -2 | $2 | $13 | |
| 34 | Bob Howry | $6 | $1 | +5 | $3 | $4 | |
| 35 | Cory Wade | $1 | $1 | -1 | $3 | $1 | $12 |
| 36 | Josh Kinney | -$3 | $1 | -5 | $2 | ||
| 37 | Jeff Samardzija | -$4 | $1 | -5 | $4 | $3 | |
| 38 | Jeremy Affeldt | $9 | $1 | +8 | $1 | $7 | |
| 39 | Sergio Romo | $6 | $1 | +5 | $3 | $9 | |
| 40 | Jared Burton | $1 | $1 | 0 | $2 | $1 | $7 |
| Average | $4 | $1 | +3 | $2 | $1 | $7 |
Franklin is the lottery ticket that wins here. Everyone else provides a little bit of value except for Kinney and Campillo, but this is hardly an inspiring group.
Notice that the 2008 column for the second, third and fourth groups of pitchers are nearly identical. Despite the presence of two 30+ save closers in the 11-20 bracket, their earnings are almost identical with the 21-30 bracket. I've never been a fan of paying good money for shaky closers or - worse - CIWs, and the charts this year seem to reinforce that.
However, it's not like the top closers brought back big money either. Dumping saves isn't for everyone, but if the prices in your 5x5 league go past your comfort zone, it's worth thinking about buying five or six starting pitchers and three or four middle relievers for $1. Maybe you'll find Ryan Franklin and maybe you won't, but at least you'll avoid spending $5-7 on a useless set-up guy.
1 comment:
My thoughts exactly. However, in our 12 team NL only 5x5, three owners took the strategy of overpaying for closers with Ks and saves with a focus on overpaying for Ks in middle relief. The result was all three placing 2, 3, and 4 in the standings. Cheap starters and massive $ were put into hitting to achieve this.
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