Next Ten Most Expensive (11-20) A.L. Starting Pitchers 2009
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | '08 |
| 11 | Joba Chamberlain | $7 | $19 | -12 | $16 | $20 | $14 |
| 12 | Daisuke Matsuzaka | -$2 | $19 | -20 | $19 | $17 | $24 |
| 13 | Kevin Slowey | $8 | $18 | -11 | $16 | $12 | $18 |
| 14 | Cliff Lee | $16 | $18 | -2 | $23 | $17 | $37 |
| 15 | Jon Lester | $30 | $16 | +13 | $26 | $21 | $24 |
| 16 | Scott Baker | $22 | $16 | +6 | $11 | $13 | $21 |
| 17 | Matt Garza | $20 | $16 | +5 | $14 | $16 | $18 |
| 18 | Ervin Santana | $6 | $16 | -11 | $14 | $13 | $31 |
| 19 | Gil Meche | $2 | $16 | -13 | $11 | $9 | $19 |
| 20 | Erik Bedard | $13 | $15 | -2 | $16 | $11 | $9 |
| Average | $12 | $17 | -5 | $17 | $15 | $22 |
Not so good. Without Lester in there, these guys lost $7 per pitcher.
It is telling that this bloc of pitchers earned almost as much per pitcher in 2008 as the 10 most expensive pitchers. The market expected most of these pitchers to slip, and more often than not they were right. Dice-K, Santana and Meche all fell hard, while Garza and Baker got slightly better but outperformed market expectations. Factoring in Lee's numbers in Philly, he put up a $27 season...$10 less than what he did in 2008, but much better than his price here.
This group of pitchers does what we typically expect them to do. They're less reliable than the top pitchers, and there's more variability from pitcher to pitcher. Even the predictions between the market, Patton, and Sports Weekly are scatter shot. Patton loved Lee and Lester and held back on Meche. Sports Weekly was conservative on Slowey, Meche, and Bedard. The market was a little bit out in front on Baker and Meche. In some cases, the market's reservations seemed a little odd in the moment, but in hindsight their relative conservatism made a lot of sense.
Next Ten (21-30) Most Expensive A.L. Starting Pitchers 2009
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | '08 |
| 21 | Justin Verlander | $37 | $15 | +22 | $18 | $18 | $10 |
| 22 | Jered Weaver | $25 | $14 | +11 | $12 | $12 | $15 |
| 23 | John Danks | $20 | $14 | +6 | $15 | $16 | $22 |
| 24 | David Price | $11 | $12 | -1 | R1 | $15 | $2 |
| 25 | Mark Buehrle | $19 | $11 | +7 | $14 | $10 | $18 |
| 26 | Gavin Floyd | $20 | $11 | +9 | $12 | $7 | $19 |
| 27 | Chien-Ming Wang | -$8 | $11 | -19 | $19 | $12 | $8 |
| 28 | Andy Sonnanstine | -$4 | $10 | -14 | $11 | $7 | $14 |
| 29 | Fausto Carmona | -$6 | $9 | -15 | $14 | $7 | -$1 |
| 30 | Justin Duchscherer | $8 | -8 | $4 | $9 | $23 | |
| Average | $12 | $12 | -0 | $12 | $11 | $13 |
This next group earned exactly what the 11-20 bracket did while costing $5 less per pitcher. The flip of that, though, is that these pitchers earned a relatively paltry $13 on average in 2008, including Duchscherer, who everyone knew was going to miss at least part of the season when he was purchased last spring. There are some big pay cuts here (Danks, Buehrle, and Floyd), but Buehrle and Floyd have a lot to do with the fear that their strikeout numbers would be low.
There's a pattern among the first 30 pitchers here. The market's relative fervor over hitters isn't matched on the pitching side and - as a result - both Patton and SW are out in front on a few of these names. Patton grabs Buehrle, Floyd, Sonnanstine, Wang, and Carmona - while tying SW on Verlander. SW also gets Danks, Price, and Duke. The only pitcher the market gets outright here is Weaver.
Through 30 pitchers, the market "gets" Felix, Kazmir, Burnett, Slowey, Baker, Santana, Meche and Weaver (not counting any ties). For the most part, the market seems to favor younger pitchers who either strike a lot of batters out or who have some kind of upside or perceived upside going forward. The problem the market has is that if it was liberal on hitters, it has to run out of money somewhere, and that starts to happen down here.
Next Ten (31-40) Most Expensive A.L. Starting Pitchers 2009
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | '08 |
| 31 | Joe Saunders | $11 | $8 | +4 | $12 | $8 | $22 |
| 32 | Andy Pettitte | $16 | $7 | +10 | $7 | $6 | $13 |
| 33 | Jeremy Guthrie | $7 | $6 | 0 | $11 | $11 | $18 |
| 34 | Armando Galarraga | -$0 | $6 | -6 | $14 | $5 | $18 |
| 35 | Jesse Litsch | -$1 | $6 | -7 | $11 | $6 | $18 |
| 36 | John Smoltz | -$3 | $5 | -9 | $5 | $10 | $5 |
| 37 | David Purcey | -$2 | $5 | -7 | $2 | $1 | |
| 38 | Nick Blackburn | $13 | $4 | +8 | $4 | $3 | $11 |
| 39 | Dana Eveland | -$7 | $4 | -11 | $1 | $7 | |
| 40 | Edwin Jackson | $23 | $4 | +19 | $4 | $7 | |
| Average | $6 | $6 | 0 | $7 | $5 | $12 |
The only pitchers the market grabs outright here are Purcey and Eveland. Patton is on a spending spree now, grabbing Saunders, Galarraga and Litsch, while tying the market on Pettitte, Blackburn and Jackson and SW on Guthrie. That leaves only Smoltz for SW...who Patton and the market happily let them grab.
This group is sort of a microcosm of the 11-20 bracket of pitchers. They nearly earned the same as the 21-30 bracket, yet the market and the touts tread lightly here. Guthrie, Galarraga, and Litsch all take double-digit pay cuts that are vindicated by the results and then some for Galarraga and Litsch.
However, it's important to note that for the average Roto squad these are your third and fourth starting pitchers. Owners need to hold their noses and dive into the pool here, even though half of these pitchers wind up in the red. Jackson turned out to be a find here, but one incredible find out of 10 pitchers certainly doesn't scream success.
Next Ten (41-50) Most Expensive A.L. Starting Pitchers 2009
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | '08 |
| 41 | Anthony Reyes | -$2 | $4 | -6 | $7 | $5 | $4 |
| 42 | Clay Buchholz | $8 | $3 | +5 | R1 | $1 | -$5 |
| 43 | Kelvim Escobar | $0 | $3 | -3 | $5 | $2 | |
| 44 | Brett Anderson | $18 | $3 | +15 | $6 | ||
| 45 | Kyle Davies | $3 | $3 | +1 | $4 | $6 | |
| 46 | Gio Gonzalez | $1 | $3 | -2 | $1 | -$3 | |
| 47 | Tim Wakefield | $8 | $2 | +5 | $7 | $3 | $16 |
| 48 | Trevor Cahill | $7 | $2 | +5 | $1 | ||
| 49 | Koji Uehara | $6 | $2 | +3 | $6 | $7 | |
| 50 | Brad Penny | $1 | $2 | -1 | $7 | $5 | -$3 |
| Average | $5 | $3 | +2 | $4 | $2 | $2 |
At a glance, the pitchers at the bottom look like the sort of grinders that you're hoping for when you spend $3 on a starting pitcher in the crapshoot. Getting $5 from your $3 investment is great, and it means that you avoided one of those bombs that have a way of making you look like an idiot, regardless of what you did with your 22 other roster spots. The problem is that these pitchers averaged a paltry 104 innings per starter. Some of that, of course, is the perpetually injured Escobar, but there are still a lot of pitchers here who didn't make it to the finish line.
When you go back and look at these pitchers in groups, this is the most predictable set of pitchers I've seen since I began doing these write-ups.
A.L. SP by Brackets 2009
| Cost Bracket | $ | Sal | +/- |
| 1-10 | $25 | $23 | +2 |
| 11-20 | $12 | $17 | -5 |
| 21-30 | $12 | $12 | -0 |
| 31-40 | $6 | $6 | 0 |
| 41-50 | $5 | $3 | +2 |
If every team in your A.L. bought five starting pitchers, you averaged about $60 of value from those pitchers - more or less. Another way of looking at the chart above is that 40% of each team's value came from their ace.
That's a pretty reliable barometer if you're planning your strategy and wondering if spending money on a big ticket ace is the right way to go. Based on the last three years, 2008 looks like the aberration. In 2007, spending big money on pitchers brought back solid returns, compared to what you get back elsewhere. It looks like we returned to that paradigm once again in 2009.
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