Next 10 (11-20) Predicted A.L. Starting Pitchers 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | AVG Cost | +/- | 2006 |
| 11 | Scott Kazmir | $16 | $18 | -2 | $17 |
| 12 | Mike Mussina | $0 | $17 | -17 | $26 |
| 13 | Rich Harden | $4 | $17 | -13 | $5 |
| 14 | Kelvim Escobar | $25 | $16 | +9 | $17 |
| 15 | Justin Verlander | $25 | $16 | +9 | $20 |
| 16 | Jered Weaver | $12 | $16 | -4 | $26 |
| 17 | A.J. Burnett | $17 | $16 | +1 | $11 |
| 18 | Ervin Santana | -$9 | $15 | -24 | $19 |
| 19 | Josh Beckett | $33 | $15 | +18 | $10 |
| 20 | Andy Pettitte | $11 | $14 | -3 | $10 |
| Average | $13 | $16 | -3 | $16 |
But that wasn't the case.
If you read my last post, you know that three of 2007's top 10 pitchers are in this group. And yet, as a group, these pitchers still fail to turn a profit.
Reviewing pitcher earnings is a different exercise than looking at hitter earnings. The swings within any group of 10 pitchers is typically going to wider than within any group of 10 similarly priced hitters, simply because pitchers, as a rule, fluctuate far more in earnings. If a hitter jumped from $3 in 2005 to $25 in 2006 and back down to $4 in 2007, we'd be shocked...assuming that said hitter wasn't injured. But when a pitcher does this, we yawn. Pitcher earnings fluctuate.
And yet, the best pitchers in the league, by this standard, are still relatively predictable. Only Jeremy Bonderman failed to earn double digits. Every other pitcher earned $13 or more. This isn't a spectacular return on your investment, but it's still something.
Contrast that with this group. Mussina and Harden return virtually nothing, and Santana is a huge bust.
Hitters are similar to pitchers in that you're paying for predictability. You pay less for pitching on the whole because it's less predictable, but you still pay more on this pay scale for who you believe are the most reliable pitchers.
Next 10 (21-30) Predicted A.L. Starting Pitchers 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | AVG Cost | +/- | 2006 |
| 21 | Jose Contreras | -$9 | $12 | -21 | $14 |
| 22 | Javier Vazquez | $26 | $12 | +14 | $7 |
| 23 | Chien-Ming Wang | $23 | $12 | +11 | $24 |
| 24 | Kevin Millwood | -$7 | $11 | -18 | $14 |
| 25 | Mark Buehrle | $17 | $11 | +6 | $1 |
| 26 | Jeremy Sowers | -$9 | $10 | -19 | $12 |
| 27 | Boof Bonser | -$5 | $9 | -14 | $8 |
| 28 | Kei Igawa | -$9 | $9 | -18 | |
| 29 | Nate Robertson | -$0 | $9 | -9 | $16 |
| 30 | Daniel Cabrera | -$10 | $8 | -18 | -$2 |
| Average | $2 | $10 | -9 | $9 |
Just like that, we're closing in on zero earnings for the starting pitchers in the American League. We've dropped from $22 to $13 to $2 per starting pitcher in two easy moves.
Assuming that each Roto team carries an average of four starting pitchers at the beginning of the year, that means there's a good chance that all of these pitchers were owned after your auction. They were in my league. I have no data in front of me to prove this, but I'm willing to guess that, as a group, these guys weren't on too many winning teams.
Notice that most of these pitchers did produce in 2006.
Next 10 (31-40) Predicted A.L. Starting Pitchers 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | AVG Cost | +/- | 2006 |
| 31 | Jake Westbrook | $3 | $8 | -5 | $10 |
| 32 | Jon Garland | $10 | $8 | +2 | $13 |
| 33 | Cliff Lee | -$8 | $7 | -15 | $9 |
| 34 | James Shields | $24 | $6 | +18 | $0 |
| 35 | Brandon McCarthy | -$3 | $6 | -9 | $3 |
| 36 | Vicente Padilla | -$9 | $6 | -15 | $10 |
| 37 | Gil Meche | $15 | $5 | +10 | $6 |
| 38 | Tim Wakefield | $11 | $5 | +6 | $5 |
| 39 | Joe Blanton | $21 | $5 | +16 | $2 |
| 40 | Kenny Rogers | $1 | $5 | -4 | $22 |
| Average | $7 | $6 | +0 | $8 |
And here you have a mixed bag. Shields and Blanton owners were certainly jumping for joy at the end of the season, but would you have predicted before the season started that either one of these pitchers was going to crack the $20 barrier? Eyeballing this group before the season, I would have told you that I probably would have picked Lee and Rogers as the best bets to earn $20 or more.
Perhaps there's something to be said for older pitchers; many of the bombs in the last group (Sowers, Bonser, Roberston, Cabrera) are young guys with only one solid season under their belts. Or no solid seasons, in Cabrera's case.
The market certainly is more likely to give pay raises to the young guns in the previous group. They earned $9 compared to this group's $8, yet are paid $10 to this group's $6. The market is insisting on profits here and it gets them, albeit begrudgingly.
Getting $10 out of your $8 Jon Garland or $11 out of your $5 Wakefield doesn't sound all that exciting, but you do need this kind of yeoman work from your third or fourth starter to win.
And this group of pitchers are third and fourth starters on most A.L. only Rotisserie teams.
Next 10 (41-50) Predicted A.L. Starting Pitchers 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | AVG Cost | +/- | 2006 |
| 41 | Jarrod Washburn | $7 | $5 | +2 | $4 |
| 42 | Esteban Loaiza | $4 | $4 | -0 | $4 |
| 43 | Matt Garza | $3 | $4 | -1 | -$4 |
| 44 | Adam Loewen | -$0 | $4 | -4 | -$4 |
| 45 | Jeff Weaver | -$11 | $4 | -15 | -$8 |
| 46 | Paul Byrd | $9 | $4 | +5 | -$2 |
| 47 | Zach Greinke | $11 | $4 | +7 | $1 |
| 48 | Odalis Perez | -$9 | $3 | -12 | -$11 |
| 49 | Bartolo Colon | -$9 | $3 | -12 | -$3 |
| 50 | Carl Pavano | $1 | $3 | -2 | |
| Average | $0 | $4 | -3 | -$2 |
I sense some sort unofficial record has been set here. Is starting pitching at the bottom so shallow that we're stuck paying good money for pitchers who earned negative money last year?
Apparently we are. Remember, this isn't a group of pitchers that some leagues own and others don't. Only Perez wasn't bought in my A.L.-only league. All five touts/expert leagues put at least $1 bid limit or bid on all of these guys, with the exception of Garza, since Patton and Rotoman don't allow themselves to put dollar figures on guys who start the year in the minors.
Yes, there are some starting pitchers to be had below this line, but they're not good bets either. Carlos Silva worked out better than anyone on this list, but that didn't make him a good bet on Auction Day 2007. For every Silva who worked out, there's a Tomo Ohka or Mike Maroth reminding you that these guys, like crime, generally don't pay.
These lists definitely had more impact in the days of first-come, first-serve transactions when you were stuck with Odalis Perez until either someone hit the waiver wire or Perez hit the DL. It's a little easier to buy a Perez and waive his sorry ass two weeks into the season. You can't waive the bad starts, though.
You also can't get the $3 back you spent on Odalis. If you know that better free agent pitchers are coming later on, why not spend the $1 on a middle reliever and use the extra $2 elsewhere?
2 comments:
You also can't get the $3 back you spent on Odalis. There was a lot of quality cursing dispensed over this fact...
Is it just me or does the drop-off from "serviceable innings-eater" to "complete garbage" happen rather dramatically? I don't recall the AL pitching being so bipolar.
It's been happening gradually over the last few years. Oddly enough, I think last year's breakouts of Carmona, Haren, Bedard, Shields and one or two others might have made the pitchers at the bottom actually look a little worse.
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