If we are, who is getting shafted?
Top 10 Predicted A.L. Relievers 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | AVG Cost | +/- | 2006 |
| 1 | Joe Nathan | $39 | $31 | +8 | $45 |
| 2 | Mariano Rivera | $28 | $29 | -1 | $39 |
| 3 | Francisco Rodriguez | $35 | $29 | +6 | $43 |
| 4 | B.J. Ryan | -$1 | $28 | -29 | $42 |
| 5 | Huston Street | $22 | $26 | -4 | $33 |
| 6 | J.J. Putz | $49 | $24 | +25 | $40 |
| 7 | Chris Ray | $15 | $21 | -6 | $32 |
| 8 | Bobby Jenks | $38 | $19 | +19 | $28 |
| 9 | Jon Papelbon | $39 | $19 | +20 | $44 |
| 10 | Todd Jones | $23 | $16 | +7 | $27 |
| Average | $29 | $24 | +5 | $37 |
Since the earnings column is for 4x4 and three of the five prices that make up the average for the "cost" column are 5x5, you could argue that these pitchers aren't getting shafted. However, the bargains here still don't quite account for the cheapskates in 5x5. J.J. Putz might not be a $49 pitcher in 5x5, but he sure isn't a $24 pitcher either. Even the conservative Sports Weekly Leviathan noticed that relievers were a good investment.
So why isn't more money being spent here?
Does this have something to do with it?
Next 10 (11-20) Predicted A.L. Relievers 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | AVG Cost | +/- | 2006 |
| 11 | Octavio Dotel | $8 | $15 | -7 | -$6 |
| 12 | Joe Borowski | $28 | $14 | +14 | $26 |
| 13 | Eric Gagne | $14 | $12 | +2 | $1 |
| 14 | Akinori Otsuka | $9 | $8 | +1 | $31 |
| 15 | Scot Shields | $8 | $7 | +1 | $18 |
| 16 | Joel Zumaya | $4 | $7 | -3 | $17 |
| 17 | Joel Pineiro | -$2 | $5 | -7 | -$16 |
| 18 | Seth McClung | $4 | -4 | -$10 | |
| 19 | Al Reyes | $19 | $4 | +15 | $2 |
| 20 | Justin Duchscherer | $1 | $3 | -2 | $14 |
| Average | $9 | $8 | +1 | $8 |
Since LABR and Tout Wars are lumped into this marketplace, you get some weird averages that don't reflect reality. Seth McClung either went for $7 (as he did in LABR) or wasn't drafted (after he got sent to the minors). He wasn't bought in too many leagues for $4. Likewise, Al Reyes likely went for more than $4 on Opening Day. Without even looking at it, that $5 price for Pineiro was driven up by the early experts and - sure enough - Sports Weekly recommended a $15 bid on him.
I suspect that in conventional leagues that auction the weekend before or the weekend after Opening Day that the extra money that isn't blown on McClung or Pineiro goes to Joe Nathan. Or Mariano Rivera. Or B.J. Ryan. It doesn't go to Al Reyes or Octavio Dotel.
Owners are afraid of spending the big money on top closers, but the scorecard here doesn't support their reluctance to shell out big bucks. In the Top 10, Ryan is the only closer who truly tanks, and Ray tanks to some degree. Street owners certainly weren't happy about his injury, but he rallied and came close to earning his keep.
Contrast that with the closers in the second group of pitchers. Borowski is a big bargain. Reyes is too but, as I pointed out, he likely went for more in leagues that auctioned later. Dotel and Gagne crapped out due to trades, but they were risky in the first place.
Another strategy that the experts use here that I don't like is buying expensive middle relievers. Shields, Zumaya and Duchscherer are poster boys for why it pays to be cautious with your middle relief money. In my opinion, anything over $3 is a risk; unless you own that middle reliever's shaky closer counterpart, you're better off waiting for the $1 or $2 pitchers in the endgame.
Next 10 (21-30) Predicted A.L. Relievers 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | AVG Cost | +/- | 2006 |
| 21 | Mike Macdougal | -$9 | $3 | -12 | $8 |
| 22 | Pat Neshek | $15 | $3 | +12 | $12 |
| 23 | Mike Timlin | $8 | $3 | +5 | $9 |
| 24 | Rafael Betancourt | $26 | $3 | +23 | $9 |
| 25 | Fernando Rodney | $3 | $3 | -0 | $15 |
| 26 | Jesse Crain | -$0 | $2 | -2 | $8 |
| 27 | Juan Rincon | -$2 | $2 | -4 | $7 |
| 28 | Kyle Farnsworth | -$1 | $2 | -3 | $6 |
| 29 | Kiko Calero | -$4 | $2 | -6 | $7 |
| 30 | Danys Baez | -$5 | $2 | -7 | $11 |
| Average | $5 | $3 | +2 | $9 |
Unlike the last group, most of these guys are the middle relievers who aren't being bought because they might become closers in mid-June. Or they're poor bets as closers-in-waiting (like Baez). One thing this group does have in common is their 2006 earnings. The touts are recommending you go past $1 for these guys mainly because of past performance. Like they say in those brokerage commercials, past performance is not indicative of future success. Betancourt and Neshek are great investments, but you have a better chance here of earning negative money than positive. The theory that middle relievers are automatically a safer investment has a few holes in it.Next 10 (31-40) Predicted A.L. Relievers 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | AVG Cost | +/- | 2006 |
| 31 | Justin Speier | $9 | $2 | +7 | $5 |
| 32 | Hector Carrasco | -$6 | $1 | -7 | $14 |
| 33 | Hideki Okajima | $17 | $1 | +16 | |
| 34 | Scott Proctor | $1 | $1 | -0 | $12 |
| 35 | David Riske | $10 | $1 | +9 | $2 |
| 36 | Fernando Cabrera | -$9 | $1 | -10 | $0 |
| 37 | Brendan Donnelly | $4 | $1 | +3 | $6 |
| 38 | Dan Miceli | $1 | -1 | $3 | |
| 39 | Luis Vizcaino | $5 | $1 | +4 | $8 |
| 40 | Jason Frasor | $3 | $1 | +2 | $3 |
| Average | $3 | $1 | +2 | $5 |
Perhaps the most surprising thing about these middle reliever charts is the fact that these guys aren't as safe an investment as advertised. For years, the experts have spent countless hours analyzing starting pitching while ignoring the middle relievers, simply telling us that they're safe but boring investments.
But look at these last two groups of pitchers! They are some big winners and some big losers. They're anything but predictable. There are the same wild fluctuations in value as there are with the starting pitchers.
Even more so, perhaps.
Top 10 A.L. Relievers (Non-Closers) 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | AVG Cost | +/- | 2006 |
| 1 | Rafael Betancourt | $26 | $3 | +23 | $9 |
| 2 | Joaquin Benoit | $18 | -$1 | ||
| 3 | Hideki Okajima | $17 | $1 | +5 | |
| 4 | Pat Neshek | $15 | $3 | +12 | $12 |
| 5 | Matt Guerrier | $15 | $3 | ||
| 6 | Rafael Perez | $14 | $0 | ||
| 7 | Jaime Walker | $12 | $0 | +12 | $5 |
| 8 | George Sherrill | $11 | $2 | ||
| 9 | Scott Downs | $11 | $0 | +1 | $7 |
| 10 | David Riske | $10 | $1 | -0 | $2 |
| Average | $15 | $1 | +14 | $4 |
Middle relievers are defined as any pitcher who pitched mostly or exclusively in relief and saved nine games or less. That's why Benoit is here but C.J. Wilson isn't.
The $0 in the "cost" column means that at least one tout recommended a bid but the average of all five recommended bids is less than $1. The blank means that not one of the five touts recommended buying these pitchers.
As a final note, Joba Chamberlain was the only other middle reliever to earn in double digits.
The free talent is why we only spend 30-35% of our auction budget on pitchers. With middle relievers, this gap is even more pronounced. Why pay $3 for Mike Timlin when we know Rafael Perez is coming along?
One reason we don't spend less on pitching is that we like to express preferences for who we want. In my freeze league, someone spent $7 on Betancourt. I normally would call this a bad play, but Betancourt's buyer had bought Borowski earlier for $21.
I'm not a fan of this strategy, either, but Borowski and Betancourt at $28 earned this owner $54 in stats.
The preferences for middle relievers are even tighter in freeze leagues and - in 4x4 freeze leagues - tighter still. At the very least, if there's a reliever you're targeting, you are going to have to at least say $2. Once you get to the you pick, I pick stage of your auction, you'll find that everyone has the same list that you do.
For both starters and relievers, the evidence points to the fact that you should spend your money on a top starter or closer or not spend it at all.
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