Ten Most Expensive A.L. Relievers 2009
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | MF | SW | '08 |
| 1 | Jon Papelbon | $22 | $29 | -7 | $26 | $29 | $26 |
| 2 | Joe Nathan | $28 | $26 | +1 | $27 | $27 | $25 |
| 3 | Joakim Soria | $19 | $26 | -7 | $23 | $24 | $26 |
| 4 | Mariano Rivera | $27 | $25 | +2 | $27 | $27 | $31 |
| 5 | Bobby Jenks | $14 | $22 | -8 | $23 | $19 | $17 |
| 6 | Brian Fuentes | $17 | $21 | -5 | $15 | $20 | $18 |
| 7 | B.J. Ryan | -$1 | $21 | -22 | $11 | $23 | $22 |
| 8 | Kerry Wood | $11 | $19 | -8 | $21 | $18 | $16 |
| 9 | Joey Devine | $18 | -18 | $3 | $12 | $14 | |
| 10 | Frank Francisco | $14 | $15 | -1 | $13 | $14 | $10 |
| Average | $15 | $22 | -7 | $19 | $21 | $21 |
Only Nathan, Rivera and Andrew Bailey (an un-auctioned free agent who doesn't appear here as a result) cracked the $25 barrier last year in 5x5. Five relievers - Rivera, Francisco Rodriguez, Soria, Papelbon, and Nathan - pulled it off in 2008.
As is typical, the market reacted to 2008 by paying for what it thought would be a reliable commodity in 2009, only to find itself disappointed more often than not. Almost all of these guys got the saves they were paid to get, but when you pay $20+ for a closer in 5x5, you're looking for whiffs and quality ERA/WHIP as well.
You can't argue too much with the prices for the top four guys; it's the prices from Jenks through Devine that make you scratch your head a little bit. Devine's average salary was generated before he was injured (or before the extent of his injury was known), but everyone else got a raise despite the fact that they weren't necessarily expected to be studs. A rising tide lifts all boats, I suppose, but the market would have been better off hanging back on these guys.
Fenger seemed to agree with that assumption and held back on some of the weaker options. He had inside information on Devine (his prices are the last ones to go to bed), but his prices on Fuentes and Ryan were pretty conservative. He did grab Jenks and Wood and his share of Rivera and Nathan. Sports Weekly agreed with my approach, tying the market on Papelbon and Fenger on Rivera and Nathan; among the relievers in the second tier, they only grabbed Ryan. The market got Soria, Fuentes, Devine and Francisco outright.
If pushing the non-elite relievers past $20 was a bad idea, then maybe waiting for a bottom-tier closer or CIW was a good idea.
Next Ten (11-20) Most Expensive A.L. Relievers 2009
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | MF | SW | '08 |
| 11 | Brandon Lyon | $13 | $11 | +3 | $9 | $10 | $9 |
| 12 | Brandon Morrow | $4 | $10 | -6 | $13 | $10 | $11 |
| 13 | Chris Ray | -$5 | $9 | -15 | $7 | $6 | |
| 14 | George Sherrill | $11 | $9 | +2 | $12 | $10 | $11 |
| 15 | Troy Percival | $1 | $9 | -8 | $12 | $8 | $11 |
| 16 | Brad Ziegler | $7 | $7 | -0 | $14 | $9 | $13 |
| 17 | Grant Balfour | $7 | $7 | -0 | $7 | $8 | $16 |
| 18 | Dan Wheeler | $11 | $6 | +5 | $5 | $5 | $15 |
| 19 | Jose Arredondo | $0 | $5 | -5 | $7 | $6 | $15 |
| 20 | Phil Hughes | $17 | $4 | +13 | R2 | $1 | -$3 |
| Average | $7 | $8 | -1 | $10 | $7 | $10 |
Or maybe not.
Sherrill would have worked out if he had stayed with the Orioles, but everyone else on this list failed as a closer or failed to turn into one. I've been poring over the stats all winter, and I guessed incorrectly which of these relievers after Sherrill had the most saves (Brad Ziegler, with seven).
This chart is quite the argument against closer-in-waitings/handcuffs. If you bought Ray at $9 to tie him to Sherrill, you went from a $2 profit for $9 to a $12 loss for $18. Picking up Wheeler and Balfour if you didn't trust Percival certainly took away most of the sting, but if you went this route you only got 12 saves for your $22.
It's nice that Lyon turned a profit for his owners, but you're not looking for a tiny profit here...you're looking for saves.
Next Ten (21-30) Most Expensive A.L. Relievers 2009
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | MF | SW | '08 |
| 21 | Justin Masterson | $7 | $4 | +3 | $6 | $2 | $9 |
| 22 | Jeremy Bonderman | -$3 | $4 | -7 | $1 | $5 | $2 |
| 23 | Scot Shields | -$1 | $4 | -4 | $6 | $1 | $10 |
| 24 | Juan Cruz | $1 | $3 | -2 | $4 | $1 | $9 |
| 25 | Rafael Perez | -$4 | $3 | -7 | $5 | $3 | $11 |
| 26 | Fernando Rodney | $13 | $3 | +10 | $5 | $3 | $4 |
| 27 | Matt Thornton | $16 | $2 | +13 | $5 | $1 | $13 |
| 28 | Jeremy Accardo | $2 | $2 | -1 | $1 | $0 | |
| 29 | J.P. Howell | $17 | $2 | +15 | $3 | $2 | $17 |
| 30 | Hideki Okajima | $9 | $2 | +7 | $5 | $2 | $10 |
| Average | $6 | $3 | +3 | $4 | $2 | $9 |
The next tier was a slightly better place to go trolling for saves. Rodney and Howell were much better plays than many of the names in the first two charts, even though Rodney hurt your ERA/WHIP. There were certainly some swings and misses here (Shields, Cruz, Perez), but when you're paying $2-4, the swings and misses aren't quite so painful.
Fenger went from conservative in the first chart to somewhat liberal in the next two. He gets Morrow, Sherrill, Percival, Ziegler, Arredondo, Masterson, Shields, Cruz, Perez, Rodney, Thornton, Howell, and Okajima. There's something to be said for paying an extra buck or two for a middle reliever over a lousy starter, but it seems to me like overkill to be aggressive on what is a very fungible and unpredictable commodity.
Especially when your fourth best reliever in the American League sits on the following chart.
Next Ten (31-40) Most Expensive A.L. Relievers 2009
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | MF | SW | '08 |
| 31 | Sean Gallagher | -$2 | $2 | -4 | $6 | $4 | $2 |
| 32 | Jensen Lewis | $4 | $2 | +3 | $1 | $2 | $6 |
| 33 | Miguel Batista | $4 | $2 | +3 | $2 | $5 | -$8 |
| 34 | Casey Janssen | -$2 | $2 | -3 | $1 | ||
| 35 | David Aardsma | $22 | $1 | +21 | -$0 | ||
| 36 | Mark Lowe | $10 | $1 | +8 | $6 | $2 | -$2 |
| 37 | Manny Delcarmen | $2 | $1 | +1 | $5 | $2 | $9 |
| 38 | Joel Zumaya | $1 | $1 | 0 | $5 | $4 | -$0 |
| 39 | Pat Neshek | $1 | -1 | $1 | |||
| 40 | Tyler Walker | $1 | -1 | R3 | $4 | $5 | |
| Average | $4 | $1 | +3 | $3 | $2 | $1 |
You're left with Aardsma, Lowe, and a bunch of uninspiring relievers, including two who didn't even throw a pitch in '09. The entire non-Morrow Mariners bullpen seems to be in this bracket. SW is particularly bullish about Batista and Lowe in mid-March, while Fenger seems hopped up on Lowe. Both touts avodied Aardsma, and two of three expert leagues passed entirely; only Tout Wars - with their $4 bid - thought he'd be worth something last year.
Fenger and SW are much more aggressive here...but only with the pitchers that they really, really like. Fenger has four $5+ bids, while SW has four bids at $4 or more. While I certainly like the idea of spending your money in the endgame, a lot of these pitchers seem interchangeable. The market certainly seems to think so, and if your own league is anything like the market, these bids are simply needlessly aggressive.
1 comment:
In 5x5 I have avoided paying for closers for the past 6-7 years, except for one mistake when I bought JJ Putz in 2008 and he turned into a bust- the only top closer bust in the AL that year.
The biggest problem with closers is that you put so much money into one player who only provides a huge advantage in one category. Yes, the best closers also help in ERA/Ratio, but you can get the same value out of slightly worse ERA/Ratios form starters at lower prices and those pitchers generally double the closers in Ks.
When grabbing pitchers in the end game you sometimes get lucky. JP Howell, Aardsma, Rodney last year out did a lot of the top paid closers. I'm not saying play the closer in waiting scenario, but be aggressive in the FAAB to be sure. And, if you go no closers save 2-3 slots in the end game for middle relievers with low BB/IP rates. You definitely don't want more than 6 starters if you want to compete in ERA/Ratio.
Because there are these non-paid saves opportunities, the big guys are available later in the season as not as valuable as thought. You can usually grab two closers at the All-Star break from teams out of the money who want to add keepers.
If you spend the league average on pitching (5x5) and don't spend $20+ on a closer that means your starters are just that much better. You should do very well in ERA/Ratio, Ks, and Wins and deal for saves when the dumping begins.
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