Bargains and Busts: 2009 A.L. Hitters

We either paid too much for the 10 most expensive American League hitters or they were really disappointing.

Top 10 Salaries, A.L. Hitters

Rank	Player	$	Sal	+/-	AP	SW	2008 (4x4)
1	Grady Sizemore	$15	$41	-27	$38	$32	$40
2	Miguel Cabrera	$31	$38	-8	$30	$35	$33
3	Mark Teixeira	$28	$38	-10	$29	$33	$33
4	Carl Crawford	$36	$36	0	$35	$33	$21
5	Ian Kinsler	$26	$36	-10	$34	$35	$34
6	Josh Hamilton	$11	$35	-24	$30	$29	$38
7	B.J. Upton	$19	$35	-15	$34	$32	$31
8	Dustin Pedroia	$25	$34	-9	$27	$27	$36
9	Nick Markakis	$22	$33	-11	$30	$30	$28
10	Evan Longoria	$26	$33	-7	$26	$24	$24
	Average	$24	$36	-12	$31	$31	$32

The market paid the same amount per hitter for the comparable 2008 chart, but got back $7 more per hitter than they did from this group. The 4x4/5x5 price difference explains some of that away, but not a $7 gap. These hitters were either bad or the market chased them too far.

The touts (Alex Patton and Sports Weekly) prices seem to agree that the market went way too far. They fell $5 short per hitter on this group. While that doesn't sound like a lot, it is when you consider that last year both touts were only $2 short per hitter, not $5.

2008 agrees as well. In 2008, the 10 most expensive hitters earned $36 per hitter and cost $36 per hitter. This year they got a $4 raise per hitter.

Part of the disappointment stems from the fact that the average American League hitter was pretty good this year. This results in a chain reaction that suppresses earnings. Each HR, RBI, SB and run is worth a little less since they are slightly more plentiful and it's harder to translate stats into dollars. In fact, only six hitters in the A.L. in 2009 cracked the $30 barrier.

Top 10 Earnings, A.L. Hitters

Rank	Player	$	Sal	+/-	AP	SW	2008 (4x4)
1	Jacoby Ellsbury	$36	$31	+6	$29	$29	$33
2	Carl Crawford	$36	$36	0	$35	$33	$21
3	Derek Jeter	$34	$23	+11	$18	$23	$22
4	Joe Mauer	$32	$20	+13	$12	$25	$23
5	Ichiro Suzuki	$31	$30	+1	$30	$27	$35
6	Miguel Cabrera	$31	$38	-8	$30	$35	$33
7	Bobby Abreu	$28	$23	+6	$24	$27	$34
8	Chone Figgins	$28	$23	+5	$22	$20	$19
9	Jason Bartlett	$28	$12	+17	$8	$11	$16
10	Mark Teixeira	$28	$38	-10	$29	$33	$33
	Average	$31	$27	+4	$24	$26	$27

In some ways, the salary column is the truest indicator of how predictable these hitters are. The higher the average salary, the more predictable the hitters. Even though the market chased the 10 most expensive hitters all the way to $36, a $27 average salary for the best hitters isn't cheap. Eight of the 10 hitters here cost $23 or more; only 31 hitters in the American League cracked that barrier last year. Getting $34 of production out of Jeter is certainly a surprise, in other words, but it isn't revelatory.

This group of hitters is pretty vanilla. Bartlett is the only hitter who cost less than $20; owners who bought these players may not have expected to buy one of the 10 best players in every instance, but they certainly were expecting some pretty solid production. They also weren't chasing this group of 10 hitters quite so much as the 10 most expensive hitters; the market and 2008 is a nearly perfect match.

Patton is the only one who lags behind here. The market is the most aggressive pricer here, but even Sports Weekly gets in on the act, tying the market on Jeter and winning the hypothetical bidding war on Mauer and Abreu. Patton can only manage to muster a tie on Ichiro with the market; he misses out on every other player.

The funny thing is that Patton's relative pessimism might be dead on. His dour $30 price almost hits Cabrera on the nose, as does his $29 price on Teixeira. His bid on Longoria ($26) is dead on, and in hindsight may have been somewhat more sensible than the $33 the market shelled out for a 24-year-old with 122 Major League games under his belt entering last year.

I've touched upon this in some of the individual positional profiles, but Patton's bets are sensible for hitters with little or no speed. Thirty-eight dollars for Cabrera and Teixeira is not only pushing the envelope, it is beyond what a hitter who cannot run will possibly earn. As I mentioned in the first base profiles, it's OK to go a couple of bucks higher to pay for production, but you get to the point where you're doing nothing but fighting a losing battle.

The most surprising hitters last year were definitely more surprising than their 2008 counterparts.

Top 10 Profits, A.L. Hitters

Rank	Player	$	Sal	+/-	AP	SW	2008 (4x4)
1	Ben Zobrist	$27	$2	+25	$1	$1	$8
2	Kendry Morales	$27	$8	+19	$8	$10	$1
3	Raj Davis	$23	$6	+17	$4		$14
4	Jason Bartlett	$28	$12	+17	$8	$11	$16
5	Aaron Hill	$27	$11	+16	$11	$13	$4
6	Marlon Byrd	$19	$4	+15	$6	$5	$16
7	Marco Scutaro	$19	$4	+15	$5	$4	$12
8	Franklin Gutierrez	$21	$6	+14	$11	$11	$9
9	Maicer Izturis	$18	$3	+14	$2	$3	$10
10	Michael Cuddyer	$22	$8	+14	$5	$12	$6
	Average	$23	$6	+17	$6	$7	$10

Only Bartlett and Hill even cracked double-digits in salary, while Zobrist, Byrd, Scutaro and Izturis went for $4 or less.

Sports Weekly, to their credit, is a little less surprised...maybe this is what they were saving their money for. They manage go to $10 or more on half of these players. As a result, they land Morales, Hill and Cuddyer, while tying Patton on Gutierrez and the market on Izturis. Patton ekes out wins on Byrd and Scoot, while the market gets Zobrist, Davis and Bartlett.

But no one had a lot of faith in this group. The market gave them a $4 per player pay cut from what they earned last year. While some of these cuts are due to job uncertainty, it is evident that the relatively high salaries that the big boys are getting have an impact here. Scutaro and Gutierrez were both slated to start but garnered no respect. No one could have or should expected Bartlett to be the 9th best hitter in the American League last year, but a $4 pay cut for a hitter at a weak position who missed part of the 2008 campaign was curious.

Most of these players didn't (or shouldn't) have come out of nowhere. But the market treated them like they did.

And - as I've said again and again - that's because of the money they kept insisting on spending at the top of the spectrum.

Top 10 Losses, A.L. Hitters

Rank	Player	$	Sal	+/-	AP	SW	2008 (4x4)
1	Grady Sizemore	$15	$41	-27	$38	$32	$40
2	Josh Hamilton	$11	$35	-24	$30	$29	$38
3	Chris Davis	$9	$27	-18	$21	$20	$15
4	Carlos Quentin	$10	$28	-18	$24	$24	$31
5	Mike Aviles	-$1	$17	-18	$12	$15	$20
6	Xavier Nady	$1	$17	-17	$17	$12	$26
7	Alex Gordon	$4	$21	-17	$18	$15	$15
8	Matt Holliday	$14	$30	-16	$30	$29	$38
9	B.J. Upton	$19	$35	-15	$34	$32	$31
10	Vladimir Guerrero	$14	$28	-14	$27	$25	$28
	Average	$10	$28	-18	$25	$23	$28

These guys cost $3 more per player than the same group of losers in 2008. That year, David Ortiz was the only hitter to crack $30 in salary. Last year, Sizemore, Hamilton, Upton and Holliday all broke $30. It's logical; if the market pushed weaker hitters to the top of the salary chart, then you're going to see a few of those $30+ hitters fall into this group.

On the other hand, you were more likely to get something back for your trouble here. Gordon, Nady, and Aviles all tanked, but 2008 saw five hitters - Travis Hafner, Victor Martinez, Jorge Posada, Aaron Hill, and Josh Fields - earn $5 or less. Getting $15 of stats out of Sizemore isn't a victory, but it's better than getting $1 for your $17 stab at Nady.

Sports Weekly once again was ahead of the market and Patton here in the other direction. Their $23 average salary was the right call across the board (though still off the market by $13 per player). They wouldn't have landed any of these players; their recommendation clearly was to stay away. Patton almost made the same recommendation, tying the market on Holliday and Nady.

If there's a lesson tied to all this spending, it's that you're definitely better off playing the Stage Three game. Wait for players in the middle and then hope for bargains at the end. There's a ceiling to what players can earn. If owners are going to go far enough past that ceiling, the power you have is in aiming for value in the middle and in the endgame.