Top 10 Salaries, N.L. Hitters
| Rank | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | 2008 |
| 1 | Hanley Ramirez | $41 | $46 | -5 | $43 | $41 | $39 |
| 2 | David Wright | $28 | $45 | -17 | $35 | $39 | $38 |
| 3 | Jose Reyes | $7 | $44 | -37 | $38 | $40 | $42 |
| 4 | Albert Pujols | $45 | $42 | +3 | $41 | $37 | $43 |
| 5 | Ryan Braun | $40 | $41 | -1 | $30 | $35 | $33 |
| 6 | Jimmy Rollins | $26 | $38 | -12 | $32 | $33 | $31 |
| 7 | Ryan Howard | $34 | $36 | -2 | $29 | $30 | $30 |
| 8 | Carlos Beltran | $18 | $35 | -17 | $30 | $30 | $35 |
| 9 | Chase Utley | $33 | $35 | -3 | $29 | $31 | $33 |
| 10 | Matt Kemp | $37 | $35 | +2 | $31 | $26 | $33 |
| Average | $31 | $40 | -9 | $34 | $34 | $36 |
Yet with or without the benefit of hindsight, it was more prudent to pay these players more (how much more prudent is certainly subject to debate). They earned $36 per player in 2008, compared to a "mere" $32 per player in the A.L. They, too, failed to earn what they were paid but - with $31 average earnings - came much closer to earning their keep than their weaker A.L. counterparts.
Once again, Patton and Sports Weekly were timid little doves when it came to these players. A $2 average pay cut for a $36 group of earners? A $4 raise per player might not have been prudent, but a $2 pay cut seems kind of harsh the other way. Half of the 10 most expensive players in the National League last year earned more than they did in 2008, while Utley broke even.
A minor phenomenon is occurring here that I suspect neither the touts nor the market are noticing. League differences - which had all but disappeared for a while thanks to interleague play - are reasserting themselves again. Thirteen National League players cracked $30 or more in 2009, while only six A.L. players pulled off the same feat.
Pujols' same raw line in the American League would be worth $41, not $45. Obviously, this works in both directions; Jacoby Ellsbury's $36 season in the A.L. would have been worth $41 if he put up those same stats in the National League. The average A.L. hitter put up better numbers than the average N.L. hitter did. The result is that it makes sense to pay more in the N.L. for the best hitters...since the hitters you buy in the middle of the pack won't accrue as much stats.
Not only were the best hitters better, they were also more predictable in the N.L. than they were in the A.L.
Top 10 Earnings, N.L. Hitters
| Rank | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | 2008 |
| 1 | Albert Pujols | $45 | $42 | +3 | $41 | $37 | $43 |
| 2 | Hanley Ramirez | $41 | $46 | -5 | $43 | $41 | $39 |
| 3 | Ryan Braun | $40 | $41 | -1 | $30 | $35 | $33 |
| 4 | Matt Kemp | $37 | $35 | +2 | $31 | $26 | $33 |
| 5 | Prince Fielder | $35 | $31 | +4 | $25 | $27 | $26 |
| 6 | Ryan Howard | $34 | $36 | -2 | $29 | $30 | $30 |
| 7 | Mark Reynolds | $33 | $14 | +19 | $14 | $15 | $20 |
| 8 | Troy Tulowitzki | $33 | $21 | +12 | $20 | $21 | $7 |
| 9 | Michael Bourn | $33 | $9 | +24 | $16 | $14 | $16 |
| 10 | Chase Utley | $33 | $35 | -3 | $29 | $31 | $33 |
| Average | $36 | $31 | +5 | $28 | $28 | $28 |
Six out of the 10 most expensive hitters also were the best hitters in the National League. The market paid slightly too much for four of these hitters (it only turned a tiny profit on Pujols and Kemp, while losing money on Ramirez, Braun, Howard, and Utley), but even if they were a dollar or two off, they were better off chasing and pushing for stats.
Since there's so much duplication, Sports Weekly and Patton are still behind on these hitters. Patton does get Bourn, while Sports Weekly gets Reynolds and ties the market on Tulo...but this is obviously going to be a big win for the market. If the best hitters are also the most expensive ones, the winner here is whoever decides to pay. Patton and SW are a little bit closer here, but clearly not close enough.
If Patton and SW aren't buying the best hitters, they had better be snatching up some of the bigger surprises.
Top 10 Profits, N.L. Hitters
| Rank | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | 2008 |
| 1 | Michael Bourn | $33 | $9 | +24 | $16 | $14 | $16 |
| 2 | Nyjer Morgan | $27 | $4 | +24 | $5 | $4 | $6 |
| 3 | Mark Reynolds | $33 | $14 | +19 | $14 | $15 | $20 |
| 4 | Andrew McCutchen | $22 | $3 | +19 | R1 | $1 | |
| 5 | Matt Diaz | $20 | $2 | +18 | $5 | $1 | $3 |
| 6 | Dexter Fowler | $17 | $3 | +14 | $5 | -$1 | |
| 7 | Todd Helton | $24 | $10 | +14 | $14 | $10 | $5 |
| 8 | Carlos Gonzalez | $16 | $2 | +14 | $5 | $1 | $4 |
| 9 | Martin Prado | $16 | $2 | +14 | $3 | $2 | $9 |
| 10 | Pablo Sandoval | $29 | $16 | +14 | $14 | $12 | $7 |
| Average | $24 | $6 | +17 | $8 | $6 | $7 |
This is where Patton seems to shine. He gets Bourn, Morgan, Diaz, Fowler, Helton, Gonzalez and Prado. The market gets McCutcheon and Sandoval, while SW is left with only Reynolds.
Just like in the A.L., this is a pretty surprising group. But 2008 shows that it was not only a surprising group but also one that came from almost completely out of nowhere. Bourn, Prado, and Reynolds are the only players here to get significant pay cuts.
A lot of these players are rookies or near-rookies whose playing time was impossible or next to impossible to predict in March when all of the expert league prices were already in the books. In keeper leagues that would allow you to auction minor leaguers, McCutcheon surely would have sold for more than $3. The rookies give this group an entirely different flavor.
Since this group is dominated by rookies, you would almost expect the next group to be dominated by veterans. And it is.
Top 10 Losses, N.L. Hitters
| Rank | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | 2008 |
| 1 | Jose Reyes | $7 | $44 | -37 | $38 | $40 | $42 |
| 2 | Geovany Soto | $4 | $23 | -19 | $23 | $18 | $20 |
| 3 | Alfonso Soriano | $14 | $33 | -19 | $27 | $30 | $28 |
| 4 | Conor Jackson | $1 | $20 | -18 | $19 | $17 | $22 |
| 5 | Garrett Atkins | $5 | $22 | -17 | $22 | $22 | $22 |
| 6 | Carlos Beltran | $18 | $35 | -17 | $30 | $30 | $35 |
| 7 | David Wright | $28 | $45 | -17 | $35 | $39 | $38 |
| 8 | Edwin Encarnacion | $1 | $18 | -16 | $15 | $16 | $14 |
| 9 | Manny Ramirez | $16 | $31 | -14 | $27 | $30 | $39 |
| 10 | Chris Young | $9 | $23 | -14 | $19 | $20 | $19 |
| Average | $10 | $29 | -19 | $26 | $26 | $28 |
Reyes probably sets some kind of record for the biggest loss ever for a hitter. But while a $37 loss is unfathomable, these are still some pretty big hits to take across the board.
Sadly for the market, it's ahead of the touts on this group of hitters as well. Patton and SW don't get anyone outright; they both tie the market on Atkins, while Patton ties on Soto. The market easily gets everyone else.
This is the drawback to pushing and pushing on the biggest names. On the whole, it is a successful strategy. The downside is if you wind up with Reyes or Beltran instead of Howard or Braun. In theory, pushing the best players to par or past it is a solid play. In practice, you have $260 to spend and it is unlikely you're going to wind up with more than two hitters that cost more than $33, and more often than not you'll get only one. Choose correctly and you've got a nice value center to build your team around. Choose wrong and you've got Jose Reyes.
1 comment:
Me, last season: Jackson AND Soriano. Ugh.
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