Top 10 Salaries, A.L. Pitchers
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP/MF | SW | '08 |
| 1 | CC Sabathia | $34 | $31 | +3 | $32 | $28 | $40 |
| 2 | Jon Papelbon | $22 | $29 | -7 | $26 | $29 | $26 |
| 3 | Roy Halladay | $37 | $28 | +9 | $33 | $30 | $40 |
| 4 | Joe Nathan | $28 | $26 | +1 | $27 | $27 | $25 |
| 5 | Joakim Soria | $19 | $26 | -7 | $23 | $24 | $26 |
| 6 | Mariano Rivera | $27 | $25 | +2 | $27 | $27 | $31 |
| 7 | Josh Beckett | $28 | $23 | +5 | $23 | $24 | $20 |
| 8 | James Shields | $18 | $23 | -5 | $24 | $18 | $25 |
| 9 | Bobby Jenks | $14 | $22 | -8 | $23 | $19 | $17 |
| 10 | Brian Fuentes | $17 | $21 | -5 | $15 | $20 | $21 |
| Average | $24 | $26 | -1 | $25 | $25 | $27 |
Six closers cracked the 10 most expensive A.L. pitchers last year, compared to four in 2008. Papelbon, Nathan, and Rivera repeat on this list, while Soria, Jenks and Fuentes join them.
There isn't necessarily an increased level of confidence in the closers, but more of a lack of faith in any of the starters - particularly at the prices they were paid in '08. Beckett and Shields wouldn't have even cracked the Top 10 that year; the market seems to be saying in CC and Halladay we trust, all others must prove their mettle.
As it turned out, this was a pretty solid group of pitchers. The starters, who we expect to be less reliable than the closers, were more reliable, turning a $12 total profit between the four of them. The relievers were the ones who brought this group down; only Nathan and Rivera turned a profit...and barely at that.
But this group is a yawner. Not a single pitcher here gained or lost more than $10. This sounds banal, but when you consider how wildly pitcher earnings tend to fluctuate, this is actually no mean feat.
I'm not minimizing the difference between Halladay's $9 profit and Shields' $5 loss. Clearly, these are two different pitchers with two varying sets of expectations and two sets of results. However, within the framework of Halladay and Shields' respective expectations, it's likely that Shields' owner was probably OK with - if not excited about - Shields' 2009 campaign.
Of course, the best pitchers weren't totally predictable.
Top 10 Earnings, A.L. Pitchers
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP/MF | SW | '08 |
| 1 | Zack Greinke | $44 | $21 | +23 | $24 | $15 | $22 |
| 2 | Felix Hernandez | $40 | $21 | +20 | $17 | $20 | $17 |
| 3 | Roy Halladay | $37 | $28 | +9 | $33 | $30 | $40 |
| 4 | Justin Verlander | $37 | $15 | +22 | $18 | $18 | $10 |
| 5 | CC Sabathia | $34 | $31 | +3 | $32 | $28 | $40 |
| 6 | Jon Lester | $30 | $16 | +13 | $26 | $21 | $24 |
| 7 | Josh Beckett | $28 | $23 | +5 | $23 | $24 | $20 |
| 8 | Joe Nathan | $28 | $26 | +1 | $27 | $27 | $25 |
| 9 | Andrew Bailey | $27 | |||||
| 10 | Mariano Rivera | $27 | $25 | +2 | $27 | $27 | $31 |
| Average | $33 | $23 | +11 | $25 | $23 | $25 |
But with the exception of Bailey - who no one saw coming - these guys weren't surprises.
The cheapest pitcher on this list is Verlander, who was the 30th most expensive pitcher in the A.L. Greinke and Hernandez were the 12th and 13th most expensive pitchers; if just one owner in any of the expert leagues had shown a little more enthusiasm, either pitcher could have cracked the Top 10 in salary.
Only Bailey's earnings this year and last year are calculated into the averages; neither the market nor the touts get dinged for Bailey since they didn't even step into the batter's box. But even if I did ding them, these 10 pitchers still would have cost $21 per pitcher.
In other words, none of your bottom feeding pitchers purchased at auction cracked through here.
You can find plenty of bottom feeders on this next chart, of course.
Top 10 Profits, A.L. Pitchers
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP/MF | SW | '08 |
| 1 | Zack Greinke | $44 | $21 | +23 | $24 | $15 | $22 |
| 2 | Justin Verlander | $37 | $15 | +22 | $18 | $18 | $10 |
| 3 | David Aardsma | $22 | $1 | +21 | -$0 | ||
| 4 | Felix Hernandez | $40 | $21 | +20 | $17 | $20 | $17 |
| 5 | Edwin Jackson | $23 | $4 | +19 | $4 | $7 | |
| 6 | Jarrod Washburn | $17 | $0 | +17 | $2 | $3 | |
| 7 | Kevin Millwood | $18 | $1 | +17 | $4 | $3 | $2 |
| 8 | Jeff Niemann | $16 | $1 | +16 | $2 | $1 | |
| 9 | J.P. Howell | $17 | $2 | +15 | $3 | $2 | $17 |
| 10 | Brett Anderson | $18 | $3 | +15 | $6 | ||
| Average | $25 | $7 | +19 | $8 | $6 | $8 |
Once again, though, the bad news for owners looking to benefit in the crapshoot is that three of 2009's best pitchers were also 2009's most profitable.
You can't underestimate how many awesome bargains there were in the $1 bargain bin. When I went back and looked, the victories here in the endgame were incredible.
Twenty-five pitchers went for an average salary of $1. These 25 pitchers earned a total of $153, or $6.12 per pitcher. Nine of these pitchers earned in double digits.
Well, maybe it's not incredible at all. In 2008, the 23 $1 pitchers actually outdid that, earning $170 total, or $7.39 per pitcher. The difference was that only six pitchers cracked $10; a lot of 2008's earning power came from Cliff Lee's amazing season.
Given all of the success at the top and bottom of the earnings spectrum, you'd kind of expect your failures to be in the middle. But they aren't.
Top 10 Losses, A.L. Pitchers
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP/MF | SW | '08 |
| 1 | B.J. Ryan | -$1 | $21 | -22 | $11 | $23 | $22 |
| 2 | Daisuke Matsuzaka | -$2 | $19 | -20 | $19 | $17 | $24 |
| 3 | Francisco Liriano | $1 | $20 | -19 | $24 | $22 | $6 |
| 4 | Chien-Ming Wang | -$8 | $11 | -19 | $19 | $12 | $8 |
| 5 | Joey Devine | $18 | -18 | $3 | $12 | $14 | |
| 6 | Fausto Carmona | -$6 | $9 | -15 | $14 | $7 | -$1 |
| 7 | Chris Ray | -$5 | $9 | -15 | $7 | $6 | |
| 8 | Andy Sonnanstine | -$4 | $10 | -14 | $11 | $7 | $14 |
| 9 | Gil Meche | $2 | $16 | -13 | $11 | $9 | $19 |
| 10 | Joba Chamberlain | $7 | $19 | -12 | $16 | $20 | $14 |
| Average | -$2 | $15 | -17 | $14 | $14 | $12 |
In 5x5, the average pitcher should earn $9.44.
So four of these pitchers - Carmona, Ray, Sonnanstine, and Wang - certainly can be considered middle of the road in terms of salary. The rest of these guys, though, fall in the $16-21 group, which is most certainly not cheap. Ryan, in fact, was the 11th most expensive pitcher in the league last year.
These guys look worse than their 2008 counterparts, but that's just because last year's chart was 4x4. If I replace it with 5x5...
Top Losses A.L. Pitchers 2008
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- |
| 1 | Erik Bedard | $9 | $30 | -21 |
| 2 | Fausto Carmona | -$1 | $19 | -20 |
| 3 | Justin Verlander | $10 | $28 | -18 |
| 4 | Clay Buchholz | -$5 | $12 | -17 |
| 5 | J.J. Putz | $9 | $26 | -17 |
| 6 | Dontrelle Willis | -$6 | $10 | -16 |
| 7 | CC Sabathia | $13 | $28 | -15 |
| 8 | Phil Hughes | -$3 | $12 | -15 |
| 9 | Ian Kennedy | -$6 | $7 | -13 |
| 10 | Joe Borowski | $0 | $13 | -13 |
| Average | $2 | $19 | -17 |
...these guys lost the same amount of our Monopoly money.
You have to squint to see it, but the 2008 losers were definitely more productive. Bedard, Putz, Sabathia and Verlander all returned $9 or more of value. That's still a big hit - particularly when you spent big bucks on those guys - but with last year's crop, only Joba returned anything worth mentioning. Six of the 10 losers in '09 were truly losers, with their Roto value in the red, while Meche at $2 was the second best pitcher in this group.
It's too early to say whether or not 2009 truly heralded the return of the ace in the A.L. With Halladay gone to the N.L., there will once again be a void to fill, but it appears that Greinke and Felix should both avoid the injury/ineffectiveness that plagued Bedard and Verlander in '08. I anticipate prices will go up in expert auctions next year for the best pitchers. Whether or not this new crop of aces is worth it is why we play the season.
1 comment:
Maybe it's because my league has really shifted to the 5x5 split completely and utterly over the years, but I am continually surprised by how low top starting pitchers go in these "expert" 5x5 leagues. We spend about 34-37% on pitchers annually. And because we keep only 5 players per team inflation generally isn't too high. Usually 12-20% on pitching.
That said, our charts would be totally different.
It just happened that closers were kept last year, so many weren't available in the auction.
But, just considering the highest earners our prices were much higher
Greinke $26
Felix $27
Halladay $30 kept
Verlander $25
CC $37
Lester $29
Beckett $29
Nathan $28
Bailey $0
Rivera $26 kept
While Greinke, Felix, and CC could be considered fair inflation prices compared to the experts, the others are well above, except Nathan. Our league doesn't pay more than $30 for any closer, including inflation. Even Greinke and Felix were around 25% different.
Because our league values starters both for strikeouts and IP (we have a 1000 IP minimum to qualify for points in ERA and Ratio), the highest earners also cost a lot more.
Greinke $26
Verlander $25
Aardsma $0
Felix $27
Edwin Jackson $2
Washburn $2
Millwood $5
Niemann $1
Howell $2
Anderson $7
While four of these guys were crapshoot picks, Anderson and Millwood were not. They were targeted buys. Perhaps it goes to the early date of these drafts, but Anderson had earned a spot in the rotation by my draft, perhaps adding to his cost. Niemann, though, who probably could have fallen into the same category had not. He was battling with Hammel for the final spot in the Rays rotation, only to have Hammel dealt the day after my draft.
Because more money was thrown at pitching, though, the biggest losers (starters) were more pronounced:
BJ Ryan $9 kept
Dice-K $27
Liriano $21 kept
Wang $15
Devine $2
Carmona $6 kept
Ray $2
Sonnanstine $17
Meche $20
Joba $22
But, again the closer situations were resolved. I think the post mortem for these "expert" leagues is a bit of a false picture to some degree just because of draft timing. Devine wasn't the closer on my draft day. Ray was not fully healthy and Sherrill wasn't yet on the block. Then, again, I draft the day before the season starts, so most jobs and injuries are clearer.
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