- Owners would pay the top pitchers more to adjust for the loss of top talent.
- The money would be spread more evenly among all pitchers.
Top Ten Salaries, A.L. Pitchers 2008
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | '07 |
| 1 | Erik Bedard | $7 | $30 | -23 | $26 | $30 | $29 |
| 2 | CC Sabathia | $10 | $28 | -19 | $29 | $26 | $36 |
| 3 | Justin Verlander | $2 | $28 | -26 | $32 | $26 | $25 |
| 4 | Jon Papelbon | $41 | $27 | +14 | $33 | $31 | $37 |
| 5 | Josh Beckett | $17 | $26 | -10 | $30 | $27 | $33 |
| 6 | J.J. Putz | $12 | $26 | -14 | $35 | $32 | $49 |
| 7 | Joe Nathan | $40 | $25 | +14 | $34 | $30 | $39 |
| 8 | Felix Hernandez | $12 | $24 | -12 | $24 | $24 | $14 |
| 9 (tie) | Scott Kazmir | $17 | $24 | -7 | $20 | $20 | $16 |
| Mariano Rivera | $48 | $24 | +24 | $32 | $28 | $28 | |
| Average | $23 | $26 | -3 | $30 | $27 | $31 |
The market cut back, spending $2 less per pitcher than it did in 2007.
The story is more complicated than that, of course. The 10th expensive pitcher on this list is $2 more expensive than the 10th most expensive pitcher on the 2007 list. Closers - who get pinched in 5x5 to begin with - disappear almost entirely, with only four appearing here (compared to seven in '07).
More than cutting back, the wealth is spread around. Everyone tries to identify the next Johan Santana, and every single one of these wannabes burns his owner to a lesser or greater degree.
I'm being a wise-ass, of course. Sabathia and Beckett were Top 10 pitchers in 2007, and Bedard and Verlander were close. Only Hernandez and Kazmir were bought on spec (mostly for the strikeouts in 5x5). When you look at the actual best pitchers in 2008, it might have just been one of those years.
Top 10 A.L. Pitchers 2008
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | '07 |
| 1 | Mariano Rivera | $48 | $24 | +24 | $32 | $28 | $28 |
| 2 | Francisco Rodriguez | $47 | $24 | +23 | $31 | $28 | $35 |
| 3 | Roy Halladay | $44 | $21 | +23 | $29 | $22 | $23 |
| 4 | Cliff Lee | $43 | $1 | +42 | $3 | -$7 | |
| 5 | Joakim Soria | $42 | $19 | +24 | $27 | $22 | $24 |
| 6 | Jon Papelbon | $41 | $27 | +14 | $33 | $31 | $37 |
| 7 | Joe Nathan | $40 | $25 | +14 | $34 | $30 | $39 |
| 8 | Ervin Santana | $29 | $6 | +23 | $11 | $2 | -$9 |
| 9 | Bobby Jenks | $28 | $20 | +8 | $29 | $25 | $38 |
| 10 | Mike Mussina | $28 | $4 | +24 | $6 | $3 | $1 |
| Average | $39 | $17 | +22 | $24 | $19 | $21 |
You're seeing something on this chart that I haven't seen before and I don't think you'll see again. Of the four starters listed here, only Halladay gets paid. Lee, Moose, and Santana all are stiffed.
Carmona was the only one of the five starters on the 2007 list who cost less than $15. While Josh Beckett certainly was a bargain in '07, he was the 19th most expensive starting pitcher. Santana was tied for 36th, Moose was 43rd, and Lee didn't even crack the Top 50.
The results are crazy profits for this group. Even if you account for the fact that relievers make far less money in 5x5, this is still a lucrative place to shop.
And it's never good news for owners who spend on aces when seven of the pitchers on this list appear on the one below.
Top Profits A.L. Pitchers 2008
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | '07 |
| 1 | Cliff Lee | $43 | $1 | +42 | $3 | -$7 | |
| 2 | Joe Saunders | $26 | $1 | +25 | R3 | $3 | $2 |
| 3 | Mariano Rivera | $48 | $24 | +24 | $32 | $28 | $28 |
| 4 | Mike Mussina | $28 | $4 | +24 | $6 | $3 | $1 |
| 5 | Joakim Soria | $42 | $19 | +24 | $27 | $22 | $24 |
| 6 | Roy Halladay | $44 | $21 | +23 | $29 | $22 | $23 |
| 7 | Ervin Santana | $29 | $6 | +23 | $11 | $2 | -$9 |
| 8 | Francisco Rodriguez | $47 | $24 | +23 | $31 | $28 | $35 |
| 9 | Justin Duchscherer | $28 | $6 | +22 | $3 | $1 | $1 |
| 10 | Gavin Floyd | $21 | $2 | +19 | R3 | -$4 | |
| Average | $35 | $11 | +25 | $14 | $11 | $9 |
Saunders, Duchscherer, and to a lesser extent Floyd earned less in 5x5. But is there any doubt that these pitchers still had a signficant impact in that format?
The 2007 column points to the fact that these guys came out of nowhere just as much as the 2008 earnings do. With $9 in average earnings in '07, these pitchers earned $3 less per pitcher than their 2007 counterparts did in '06, but beat them in earnings by $5 per pitcher, $35 to $30. It's not just the closers here, either; only three closers appear on the bargain list, compared to five in 2007.
If you're like me and buy Patton's excellent software program, you were way out in front on these players. He comes closest to predicting Lee, Mo, Moose, Soria, Halladay, Santana, and K-Rod. The market gets Duke (nice call) and Floyd (almost by default). Sports Weekly is left with Saunders.
The problem is that Patton's in front on most of the pitchers below as well.
Top Losses A.L. Pitchers 2008
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | '07 |
| 1 | Clay Buchholz | -$14 | $12 | -26 | $12 | $9 | $7 |
| 2 | Justin Verlander | $2 | $28 | -26 | $32 | $26 | $25 |
| 3 | Fausto Carmona | -$7 | $19 | -25 | $25 | $21 | $32 |
| 4 | Nate Robertson | -$20 | $4 | -24 | $6 | $3 | -$0 |
| 5 | Erik Bedard | $7 | $30 | -23 | $26 | $30 | $29 |
| 6 | Carlos Silva | -$19 | $3 | -21 | $3 | $3 | $13 |
| 7 | Miguel Batista | -$19 | $3 | -21 | $3 | $7 | |
| 8 | Dontrelle Willis | -$10 | $10 | -20 | $7 | $4 | -$10 |
| 9 | Ian Kennedy | -$12 | $7 | -19 | $8 | $6 | $4 |
| 10 | CC Sabathia | $10 | $28 | -19 | $29 | $26 | $36 |
| Average | -$8 | $14 | -22 | $15 | $13 | $14 |
In a three-way battle with the market and SW, Patton gets Verlander, Carmona, Robertson, Kennedy, and Sabathia. The market only wins outright on Willis. They tie SW on Bedard, tie Patton on Buchholz and Batista, and land in an ugly three-way tie on Silva.
What strikes me here is how little middle ground there is. The aces last year stumbled big time. Patton's advice was sensible: spend your money on the expected best pitchers.
That would have worked in '07. Jeremy Bonderman at $21 was the most expensive starter on the Top 10 losses list. In '08, Bedard, Sabathia, and Verlander beat Bonderman in salary big time.
We're going to forget all of this when 2009 rolls around. I'll bet Verlander's frozen at $17 in my A.L.-freeze league, and Bedard goes to at least $20. Heck, I'm probably being conservative.
It used to be that the aces were easier to identify. But we enter this off-season not knowing. Moose is retired, but Halladay's the only Top 10 pitcher I feel could about spending big money on this coming season. Who knows how reliable Lee, Moose, Saunders or Santana will be in '09.
I sure don't.
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