Top 10 Salaries N.L. Pitchers 2008
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | '07 |
| 1 | Johan Santana | $37 | $40 | -3 | $37 | $41 | $33 |
| 2 | Jake Peavy | $24 | $33 | -10 | $34 | $32 | $43 |
| 3 | Brandon Webb | $33 | $29 | +4 | $32 | $25 | $33 |
| 4 | Dan Haren | $30 | $25 | +5 | $22 | $20 | $29 |
| 5 | Cole Hamels | $33 | $24 | +9 | $29 | $24 | $27 |
| 6 | Roy Oswalt | $27 | $24 | +3 | $25 | $18 | $21 |
| 7 | Billy Wagner | $25 | $22 | +3 | $32 | $28 | $31 |
| 8 | Takashi Saito | $20 | $22 | -2 | $35 | $29 | $42 |
| 9 (tie) | Aaron Harang | -$1 | $21 | -21 | $28 | $20 | $27 |
| Carlos Zambrano | $16 | $21 | -5 | $24 | $22 | $18 | |
| Average | $25 | $26 | -2 | $30 | $26 | $30 |
Despite Santana and Haren's arrival in the Senior Circuit - and with no similar defections to the other league - the average salary for the 10 most expensive pitchers in the N.L. was identical to what it was in 2007.
The money, though, was distributed very differently. Santana was $9 more expensive than last year's most expensive pitcher - Chris Carpenter - while Peavy and Webb were $5 and $1 more expensive than their counterparts on last year's list. Every other slot from #4 to #10 took a slight pay cut.
The other difference is that relievers get cheated (as I noted in an earlier post). Four relievers populated last year's list, compared to only two this year. This is what really explains the price difference between 2007 and 2008. The top eight starters from 2007 were paid $31, $28, $27, $26, $25, $23, $21, and $18 (Chris Carpenter's salary - listed at $18 in the linked post - was corrected later). Looking at it this way, seven of the eight most expensive starting pitchers got raises for their slots.
So the market is definitely reacting to Santana and Haren's addition to the pool, as well as tipping its cap to Peavy's great 2007. But Patton reacts even more forcefully. He outbids the market and Sports Weekly for all of these pitchers with the exceptions of Santana (SW) and Haren (market).
And his faith is rewarded. This group of pitchers would have turned a profit if not for Harang.
Patton's recommendations to push the button hard on these pitchers is especially rewarding since four of them made the next list.
Top 10 Earnings N.L. Pitchers 2008
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | '07 |
| 1 | Jose Valverde | $38 | $20 | +18 | $31 | $24 | $37 |
| 2 | Johan Santana | $37 | $40 | -3 | $37 | $41 | $33 |
| 3 | Tim Lincecum | $37 | $19 | +18 | $16 | $14 | $9 |
| 4 | Brad Lidge | $36 | $15 | +20 | $25 | $18 | $20 |
| 5 | Brandon Webb | $33 | $29 | +4 | $32 | $25 | $33 |
| 6 | Cole Hamels | $33 | $24 | +9 | $29 | $24 | $27 |
| 7 | CC Sabathia | $32 | $36 | ||||
| 8 | Kerry Wood | $32 | $6 | +25 | $14 | $9 | $2 |
| 9 | Dan Haren | $30 | $25 | +5 | $22 | $20 | $29 |
| 10 | Ryan Dempster | $30 | $1 | +29 | $4 | $18 | |
| Average | $34 | $20 | +14 | $23 | $19 | $24 |
Sabathia's a blank for salary and predictions because the A.L. market doesn't figure here. So Sabathia doesn't get computed into the average salaries or predictions either; no point in penalizing the market or the touts for not guessing that CC would be a Brewer.
Because of the presence of so many pitchers from the most expensive list, it stands to reason that this isn't a cheap group of pitchers. And it isn't; $20 is a lot to pay for a pitcher. But these guys are still cheaper than their 2007 counterparts, and unlike those guys there are actually a couple of bargains to be had here in Dempster and Wood.
But the market and SW still miss out on most of the new guys, with only Lincecum going to the market. If were in a league with someone using Patton's valuation, you weren't getting Dempster for $1. Maybe for $3.
There were some nice surprises at the bottom, though, and many more this year than there were in '07.
Top 10 Profits N.L. Pitchers 2008
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | '07 |
| 1 | Ryan Dempster | $30 | $1 | +29 | $4 | $18 | |
| 2 | Ricky Nolasco | $29 | $0 | +28 | $1 | -$2 | |
| 3 | Kerry Wood | $32 | $6 | +25 | $14 | $9 | $2 |
| 4 | Salomon Torres | $26 | $1 | +25 | R3 | $6 | |
| 5 | Brian Fuentes | $27 | $3 | +23 | $2 | $4 | $21 |
| 6 | Brad Lidge | $36 | $15 | +20 | $25 | $18 | $20 |
| 7 | Edinson Volquez | $23 | $3 | +20 | $3 | $1 | |
| 8 | Jose Valverde | $38 | $20 | +18 | $31 | $24 | $37 |
| 9 | Tim Lincecum | $37 | $19 | +18 | $16 | $14 | $9 |
| 10 | Jamie Moyer | $18 | $0 | +18 | $3 | $2 | |
| Average | $29 | $7 | +22 | $10 | $7 | $11 |
It's beautiful how things change every year. I lamented the lack of starting pitchers on this list in last year's post; this year it was split right down the middle between cheap starters and bargain relievers. What jumps out at me, though, is that six of these pitchers fall into what Patton calls the "crapshoot": that range between $1-3 that qualifies as the endgame in your auction. There was money to made there last season.
And, once again, Alex Patton and his predictions are en fuego.
He grabs Dempster, Nolasco, Wood, Lidge, Valverde and Moyer. The market gets Torres and Lincecum. SW only gets Fuentes, while Patton and the market tie on Volquez.
Is Patton simply spending too much on pitching? Or was he really on fire?
Top 10 Losses N.L. Pitchers 2008
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | '07 |
| 1 | Ian Snell | -$16 | $17 | -33 | $11 | $12 | $12 |
| 2 | Tom Gorzelanny | -$16 | $11 | -27 | $7 | $8 | $12 |
| 3 | Brad Penny | -$9 | $14 | -23 | $18 | $12 | $25 |
| 4 | Pedro Martinez | -$7 | $15 | -22 | $18 | $17 | $4 |
| 5 | Aaron Harang | -$1 | $21 | -21 | $28 | $20 | $27 |
| 6 | Homer Bailey | -$12 | $7 | -19 | $2 | $3 | -$2 |
| 7 | Rich Hill | $0 | $19 | -19 | $12 | $13 | $17 |
| 8 | Jeff Francis | -$5 | $12 | -18 | $8 | $6 | $13 |
| 9 | Kevin Correia | -$14 | $2 | -17 | $1 | $1 | $7 |
| 10 | Brandon Backe | -$16 | $1 | -16 | $2 | $3 | |
| Average | -$10 | $12 | -21 | $11 | $9 | $12 |
Judging by this last list, Patton was smoking.
The market has suddenly lapped past him. Patton does get stuck with some turkeys here (Penny, Pedro, Harang and Backe). But it's the three tout leagues that push these pitchers to what they earned in 2007, buying Snell, Gorzo, Bailey, Hill, Francis, and Correia.
Sports Weekly avoids all of these guys. But Sports Weekly isn't spending its money anywhere.
These pitchers get paid less than the 10 biggest losers from 2007 were paid. But they also earned less the previous year, so that makes some sense. The end result is similar, though. All 10 of these pitchers not only fail to turn a profit, they almost all lose money for their owners.
This chart lends to the same conclusion that we saw in the American League: it's better to spend your money on starting pitching early rather than wait for the middle rounds and get cute with your staff. There are more $1-2 pitchers on the bargain list than there are on the bust list, and these busts are mostly starting pitchers who cost their owners double digits to take the ride.Lincecum is the rare exception: a starting pitcher who went for a moderate amount who earned big.
Everyone else in the middle seemed to fail. I can't necessarily advocate a "stars and scrubs" pitching strategy, but it is worth noting how reliable the Top 6 starting pitchers were in 2008 when you're cobbling your bids together in 2009.
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