Statistical Predictability: Batting Average

One of the huge reasons for this blog is that I like to do something that almost no one does anymore: look back.

We all know that you can't win by solely looking at the year before and applying that information to your auction this year. But before you crack open those magazines or buy those copies of Baseball Prospectus or the Annual Forecaster, it's definitely worth looking into how close the players came to doing what we thought they were going to do.

Top 10 A.L. BA $: 2008

Rank	Top 10 $ BA	AB	HR	RBI	SB	BA	$BA	$	Sal	AP	SW	2007
1	Dustin Pedroia	653	17	83	20	.326	11	36	16	11	16	18
2	Joe Mauer	536	9	85	1	.328	9	23	21	20	24	14
3	Ichiro Suzuki	686	6	42	43	.310	8	35	34	35	30	40
4	Magglio Ordonez	561	21	103	1	.317	8	28	25	28	26	42
5	Ian Kinsler	518	18	71	26	.319	7	34	26	18	24	22
6	Mike Aviles	416	10	51	8	.327	7	20
7	Kevin Youkilis	538	29	115	3	.312	7	32	17	15	15	18
8	Milton Bradley	414	22	77	5	.321	6	26	11	12	10	15
9	Placido Polanco	580	8	58	7	.307	6	19	17	17	16	25
10	Josh Hamilton	624	32	130	9	.304	6	38	20	25	14	15
	average	553	17	82	12	.317	8	29	19	18	18	21

These are the 10 best batting average hitters in the A.L., not sorted by where they finished in the American League batting race, but by how much money they earned their Rotisserie tams in the category. That's why Ichiro Suzuki, who has the eight highest BA on the list, is the third highest earner.

The $19 average salary (along with the $18 average predictions) tell you that the expectations for these hitters was good but not great. They earn about 29% of their Roto money in BA, which means that these guys contributed a lot in the counting stats.

The hitters who were bought because they had good batting averages the year before (Polanco, Suzuki, Ordonez, and Mauer for his 2006 BA) were definitely discounted to a point. No one expects Polanco to hit .341, Ordonez .363, or Suzuki .351, so each hitter comes cheaper than what they earned in 2007. In fact, these three hitters take the biggest paycut out of the guys on this list, despite the fact that all three were expected to finish in the Top 10 by at least one prognosticator.

Top 10 A.L. BA Predictions (Rotoman): 2008

Rank	Top 10 $ BA	AB	HR	RBI	SB	BA	$BA	$	Sal	AP	SW	2007
1	Miguel Cabrera	616	37	127	1	.292	4	33	42	33	36	34
2	Ichiro Suzuki	686	6	42	43	.310	8	35	34	35	30	40
3	Derek Jeter	596	11	69	11	.300	5	22	29	29	29	27
4	Vladimir Guerrero	541	27	91	5	.303	5	28	33	32	32	32
5	Magglio Ordonez	561	21	103	1	.317	8	28	25	28	26	42
6	Placido Polanco	580	8	58	7	.307	6	19	17	17	16	25
7	Joe Mauer	536	9	85	1	.328	9	23	21	20	24	14
8	Michael Young	645	12	82	10	.284	3	21	23	23	27	26
9	Carlos Guillen	420	10	54	9	.286	2	16	29	24	26	27
10	Alex Rodriguez	510	35	103	18	.302	5	38	47	42	43	53
	average	569	18	81	11	.303	6	26	30	28	29	32

These aren't Rotoman's actual projections; these are the statistics these players actually put up in 2008. But they are sorted in the predicted order they were projected to finish in batting average in 2008.

Curiously, except for batting average, the average stats are eerily similar to the actual 10 best hitters. Part of that is because there are four repeaters on this list (Suzuki, Ordonez, Polanco, and Mauer). But part of it is simply that these hitters are very good. You didn't buy Cabrera, Vlad, or A-Rod for just their batting averages.

The players on this list that you did buy in part or mostly for their batting averages (Jeter, Young, and Guillen) were failures to a greater or lesser degree. But none of them tailed off in batting average to the point where they sunk your team. Even their AB totals kept the chains moving. Only the oft-injured Guillen missed significant time, but he too was a positive contributor.

The most striking thing about these lists is that Mike Aviles was the only player to come from entirely out of nowhere. Everyone else had at least double-digit earnings expectations based on their bids. In the National League, there were more surprises.

Top 10 N.L. BA $: 2008

Rank	Top 10 BA Proj.	AB	HR	RBI	SB	BA	$BA	$	Sal	AP	SW	2007
1	Albert Pujols	524	37	116	7	.357	13	43	35	33	36	33
2	Chipper Jones	439	22	79	4	.365	12	30	27	24	20	34
3	Matt Holliday	539	25	88	28	.321	8	38	39	38	38	45
4	Cristian Guzman	579	9	55	6	.316	8	20	1	2	2	6
5	Manny Ramirez	187	17	53	2	.396	7	20				20
6	Lance Berkman	554	29	106	18	.312	7	37	30	31	25	27
7	Randy Winn	598	10	64	25	.306	6	27	11	14	11	23
8	Ryan Theriot	580	1	38	22	.307	6	20	14	7		16
9	Ryan Doumit	431	15	69	2	.318	6	20	6	6	5	7
10	Xavier Nady	327	13	57	1	.330	6	17	7	11	8	17
	average	476	18	72	12	.327	8	27	19	18	16	23

The average salary of $19 is the same, but that's because there are more $30+ buys on this list than on the American League one. Guzman is virtually untouched in the expert leagues, while Doumit and Nady also land in single-digit territory.

You definitely weren't buying most of these hitters looking for batting average. Theriot hit .266 in 2007 while Nady hit .278. While Guzman had hit .328 in 2007, it was in 174 AB, and his owners back in April were probably mentally splitting the difference between the .219 he hit in 2006 and that gaudy BA in '07.

One problem with trying to chase batting average in the National League is that the days of finding a BA specialist like Wade Boggs or Tony Gwynn floating around out there are over.

Top 10 N.L. BA Predictions (Rotoman): 2008

Rank	Top 10 BA Proj.	AB	HR	RBI	SB	BA	$BA	$	Sal	AP	SW	2007
1	Albert Pujols	524	37	116	7	.357	13	43	35	33	36	33
2	Matt Holliday	539	25	88	28	.321	8	38	39	38	38	45
3	Derrek Lee	623	20	90	8	.291	3	24	28	28	24	27
4	Chipper Jones	439	22	79	4	.365	12	30	27	24	20	34
5	David Wright	626	33	124	15	.302	6	38	43	38	39	46
6	Chase Utley	607	33	104	14	.292	4	33	38	33	36	32
7	Todd Helton	299	7	29	0	.264	-1	5	19	24	19	24
8	Matt Kemp	606	18	76	35	.290	3	33	27	21	22	19
9	Garrett Atkins	611	21	99	1	.288	3	22	30	31	24	27
10	Andre Ethier	525	20	77	6	.305	5	24	9	15	3	13
	average	540	24	88	12	.307	6	29	30	29	26	30

Except for Helton, these hitters were good or great in 2008. But you weren't buying these guys just for their batting averages.

Only Pujols, Holliday, and Jones make both lists.

Because many of these players are the cream of the crop, I have to imagine that most of them got paid somewhat for their BAs. So there was some disappointment amongst David Wright owners when he didn't hit .325 and earn $46 again. Utley owners would have loved another .332 season, but getting $33 worth of stats out of your second baseman ain't bad.

There is a random nature to batting average that suggests that you shouldn't pay for it. On the other hand, the best predicted hitters were still good. And the prejudice against the fluky nature of BA means that if owners are willing to let someone like Ordonez slip, you should capitalize. He didn't hit .363 again, but he did turn a profit. Let the prejudice of others be your gain.