Statistical Predictability: Stolen Bases

After looking at last year's best average hitters along with their predicted counterparts, let's move along to stolen bases.

Top 10 A.L. Stolen Bases 2008

Rank	Top 10 SB	AB	HR	RBI	SB	BA	$SB	$	Sal	AP	SW	2007
1	Jacoby Ellsbury	554	9	47	50	.280	23	33	19	18	15	10
2	B.J. Upton	531	9	67	44	.273	20	31	33	34	37	30
3	Ichiro Suzuki	686	6	42	43	.310	19	35	34	35	30	40
4	Brian Roberts	611	9	57	40	.296	18	33	27	20	23	34
5	Grady Sizemore	634	33	90	38	.268	17	40	35	32	29	31
6	Chone Figgins	453	1	22	34	.276	15	19	29	29	28	32
7	Carlos Gomez	577	7	59	33	.258	15	22	11	15	2	5
8	Alex Rios	635	15	79	32	.291	14	33	31	28	29	29
9	Johnny Damon	555	17	71	29	.303	13	33	19	20	22	22
10	Ian Kinsler	518	18	71	26	.319	12	34	26	18	24	22
	average	575	12	61	37	.288	17	31	26	25	24	26

Unlike the batting average list, more than half of these players are pure steals plays. More than half (53%) of their earnings come from the stolen base.

Half of them (Ellsbury, Roberts, Suzuki, Gomez, and Damon) are purchased mostly or purely for their base stealing abilities. What jumps out at me more is that there isn't a surprise on this list.

Top 10 A.L. Stolen Base Predictions (Rotoman): 2008

Rank	Top 10 SB	AB	HR	RBI	SB	BA	$SB	$	Sal	AP	SW	2007
1	Chone Figgins	453	1	22	34	.276	15	19	29	29	28	32
2	Carl Crawford	443	8	57	25	.273	11	21	41	40	37	40
3	Ichiro Suzuki	686	6	42	43	.310	19	35	34	35	30	40
4	Brian Roberts	611	9	57	40	.296	18	33	27	20	23	34
5	Jacoby Ellsbury	554	9	47	50	.280	23	33	19	18	15	10
6	Julio Lugo	261	1	22	12	.268	5	8	21	16	16	18
7	Carlos Gomez	577	7	59	33	.258	15	22	11	15	2	5
8	Bobby Abreu	609	20	100	22	.296	9	34	29	27	29	28
9	B.J. Upton	531	9	67	44	.273	20	31	33	34	37	30
10	Grady Sizemore	634	33	90	38	.268	17	40	35	32	29	31
	average	536	10	56	34	.282	15	28	28	27	25	27

Seven of the 10 best base stealers in the A.L. in 2008 were also predicted to be the best by Rotoman. Crawford and Abreu just miss, while Lugo misses by quite a bit.

But you'd expect the 10 best expected of anything to be a great disappointment. These guys aren't. They earn what they were paid in 2008, even though they got $1 raise on average from 2007.

This would seem like good news for a no-power strategy. The six point drop in batting average from the actual Top 10 by the predicted Top 10 certainly isn't small. But this still would have won my American League's batting title, while Suzuki, Roberts, and Gomez would have left their buyer 14 steals short of first place in the category, at a relatively modest $72 salary (It should be noted that these three went for $96 in my A.L.).

The thing that makes me think about a Sweeney Plan, though, isn't just the results.

Most of these guys are pure steals plays. Only Abreu and Sizemore come with power; the rest of these guys are steals all the way. It's true if you bought Figgins and Crawford instead of Roberts and Ichiro that you got burned, but you still would have had money to spare.

In the N.L., the pure steals plays used to be all over the place.

Top 10 N.L. Stolen Bases 2008

Rank	Top 10 SB	AB	HR	RBI	SB	BA	$SB	$	Sal	AP	SW	2007
1	Willy Taveras	479	1	26	68	.251	28	29	19	19	20	22
2	Jose Reyes	688	16	68	56	.297	23	42	46	44	42	44
3	Jimmy Rollins	556	11	59	47	.277	20	31	37	37	38	43
4	Michael Bourn	467	5	29	41	.229	17	16	17	18	16	8
5	Juan Pierre	375	1	28	40	.283	17	22	18	14	21	34
6	Shane Victorino	570	14	58	36	.293	15	30	25	23	20	25
7	Hanley Ramirez	589	33	67	35	.301	15	39	41	41	41	51
8	Matt Kemp	606	18	76	35	.290	15	33	27	21	22	19
9	Matt Holliday	539	25	88	28	.321	12	38	39	38	38	45
10	Carlos Beltran	606	27	112	25	.284	10	35	31	34	30	34
11	Randy Winn	598	10	64	25	.306	10	27	11	14	11	23
	average	552	15	61	40	.286	17	31	28	28	27	32

These days they're much harder to come by.

Tavares, Bourn, and Pierre are the only ones on this list. Everyone else comes with double-digit homeruns, and a price tag that's $2 higher per player than in the A.L.

The SB $ earnings to overall earnings ratio is the same, though.

The National League definitely wasn't as reliable as the A.L. when it came to predictability.

Top 10 N.L. Stolen Base Predictions (Rotoman): 2008

Rank	Top 10 SB	AB	HR	RBI	SB	BA	$SB	$	Sal	AP	SW	2007
1	Jose Reyes	688	16	68	56	.297	23	42	46	44	42	44
2	Hanley Ramirez	589	33	67	35	.301	15	39	41	41	41	51
3	Juan Pierre	375	1	28	40	.283	17	22	18	14	21	34
4	Willy Taveras	479	1	26	68	.251	28	29	19	19	20	22
5	Jimmy Rollins	556	11	59	47	.277	20	31	37	37	38	43
6	Rajai Davis	18	0	0	4	.056	2	0	4	3	1	11
7	Rafael Furcal	143	5	16	8	.357	3	11	23	19	23	27
8	Corey Patterson	366	10	34	14	.205	6	6	6	14	7	22
9	Eric Byrnes	206	6	23	4	.209	2	2	27	25	27	39
10	David Roberts	107	0	9	5	.284	2	1	8	11	8	14
	average	353	8	33	28	.272	12	18	23	23	23	31

The first five guys on this list were predictable. The last five tanked. Injuries (Byrnes, Furcal, Roberts) had something to do with it, but the presence of Davis and Patterson on this list tells me that the days of most National League teams carrying at least one big-time burner are over.

In the N.L., the market is definitely a little more cautious than it has been on these burners. Throughout most of these lists, it has been beating both Patton and Sports Weekly in groups of 10 time after time. Here, they spend $23 per player, but that's a big drop from the $31 these guys earned the year before. At $23 per player, they're not dumping steals, but they're definitely letting the second-tier players like Roberts and Patterson go if the price isn't right.