Statistical Predictability: Home Runs

Typically, we pay for power because it's predictable. But it seemed like the best power hitters in 2008 were anything but.

Top 10 A.L. Home Runs 2008

Rank	Top 10 HR	AB	HR	RBI	SB	BA	$HR	$	Sal	AP	SW	2007
1	Miguel Cabrera	616	37	127	1	.292	14	33	42	33	36	34
2	Carlos Quentin	480	36	100	7	.288	14	31	6	5	7	2
3	Alex Rodriguez	510	35	103	18	.302	13	38	47	42	43	53
4	Jermaine Dye	590	34	96	3	.292	13	29	20	18	17	16
5	Jim Thome	503	34	90	1	.245	13	20	19	18	22	23
6	Grady Sizemore	634	33	90	38	.268	13	40	35	32	29	31
7	Jack Cust	481	33	77	0	.231	13	16	12	15	10	16
8	Aubrey Huff	598	32	108	4	.304	12	32	13	14	10	14
9	Jason Giambi	458	32	96	2	.247	12	21	4	12	6	7
10	Josh Hamilton	624	32	130	9	.304	12	38	20	25	14	15
	average	549	34	102	8	.279	13	30	22	21	19	21

The corresponding American League hitters in my stolen base post cost $26 per player while earning $31. The batting average group cost $19 per player and earned $29.

These numbers are worth looking at since one way to measure predictability is to glance at what the best players per category were paid. Since we should, in theory, be paying the most to buy the best stats, lower costs should also mean that these hitters are less predictable.

What also tells me how unpredictable these hitters were is how few of them were projected to be in 2008's Top 10.

Top 10 A.L. Home Run Predictions (Rotoman) 2008

Rank	Top 10 HR	AB	HR	RBI	SB	BA	$HR	$	Sal	AP	SW	2007
1	Alex Rodriguez	510	35	103	18	.302	13	38	47	42	43	53
2	David Ortiz	416	23	89	1	.264	9	19	34	31	31	36
3	Paul Konerko	438	22	62	2	.240	8	12	25	23	21	18
4	Jermaine Dye	590	34	96	3	.292	13	29	20	18	17	16
5	Travis Hafner	198	5	24	1	.197	2	1	26	23	25	18
6	Carlos Pena	490	31	102	1	.247	12	21	26	23	26	31
7	Richie Sexson	280	12	36	1	.221	5	5	11	14	11	6
8	Vladimir Guerrero	541	27	91	5	.303	10	28	33	32	32	32
9	Manny Ramirez	365	20	68	1	.299	8	19	26	27	28	20
10	Miguel Cabrera	616	37	127	1	.292	14	33	42	33	36	34
11	Justin Morneau	623	23	129	0	.300	9	29	28	26	28	23
12	Nick Swisher	497	24	69	3	.219	9	11	24	16	20	16
	average	464	24	83	3	.272	9	20	29	26	27	25

Only A-Rod, Dye, and Cabrera repeat on both lists, though Vlad barely misses and Pena misses by one home run, which isn't bad given his injury.

Did you notice how aggressive the market is about these hitters?

At $29 per player, they're $4 out in front of what these guys earned in 2007. A-Rod, Ortiz and Pena are the only three of the 12 who get pay cuts. Everyone else is expected to do better, and many of these hitters were expected to do a lot better.

Konerko, Hafner, Sexson, Manny, Cabrera, Morneau, and Swisher all get $5 or greater raises.

You don't see this kind of largess for either the BA guys (overall $2 pay cut) or the SB guys ($1 raise). Cabrera and Mauer (BA) and Ellsbury and Gomez (SB) are the only other predicted best category hitters who get the same $5+ courtesy. In Ellsbury and Gomez's case, they played partial seasons in '07 and it's anticipated they'll play a full campaign in '08. For Mauer, the expectation is that he'll bounce back from an injury.

The market is definitely chasing power more than it's chasing any other category. Despite the fact that it's less predictable than steals and not much more predictable than batting average, which should be far less predictable.

Top 10 N.L. Home Run Predictions (Rotoman) 2008

Rank	Top 10 HR	AB	HR	RBI	SB	BA	$HR	$	Sal	AP	SW	2007
1	Ryan Howard	610	48	146	1	.251	17	30	37	31	33	32
2	Andruw Jones	209	3	14	0	.158	1	-5	22	19	19	13
3	Prince Fielder	588	34	102	3	.276	12	26	38	30	32	35
4	Adam Dunn	511	40	100	2	.236	14	21	26	24	26	28
5	Alfonso Soriano	453	29	75	19	.280	10	28	34	32	34	32
6	Lance Berkman	554	29	106	18	.312	10	37	30	31	25	27
7	Carlos Lee	436	28	100	4	.314	10	29	31	33	28	34
8	Mark Teixeira	381	20	78	0	.284	7	17	35	33	31	27
9	Carlos Delgado	598	38	115	1	.271	13	27	18	14	15	17
10	Aramis Ramirez	554	27	111	2	.289	9	26	27	28	24	26
	average	489	30	95	5	.273	10	24	30	28	27	27

The N.L. expert leagues aren't quite as generous; only Howard, Jones, and Teixeira get the same $5+ raises. Still, this group gets a $3 per player raise over 2007, compared to a push for the predicted BA leaders and an $8 paycut for the predicted SB leaders.

Dunn and Lee are the only players who get a pay-cut.

Despite the fact that HR are unpredictable, the market thinks that they are incredibly predictable, so much so that they're willing to pay beyond what these guys earned in 2007 to make sure that they get their power.

And in the end they do.

Top 10 N.L. Home Runs 2008

Rank	Top 10 HR	AB	HR	RBI	SB	BA	$HR	$	Sal	AP	SW	2007
1	Ryan Howard	610	48	146	1	.251	17	30	37	31	33	32
2	Adam Dunn	511	40	100	2	.236	14	21	26	24	26	28
3	Carlos Delgado	598	38	115	1	.271	13	27	18	14	15	17
4	Ryan Braun	611	37	106	14	.285	13	33	37	29	37	36
5	Ryan Ludwick	538	37	113	4	.299	13	32	3	6	3	12
6	Albert Pujols	524	37	116	7	.357	13	43	35	33	36	33
7	Adrian Gonzalez	616	36	119	0	.279	13	28	26	25	18	23
8	Prince Fielder	588	34	102	3	.276	12	26	38	30	32	35
9	Pat Burrell	536	33	86	0	.250	12	18	18	15	14	19
10	Hanley Ramirez	589	33	67	35	.301	12	39	41	41	41	51
11	Chase Utley	607	33	104	14	.292	12	33	38	33	36	32
12	David Wright	626	33	124	15	.302	12	38	43	38	39	46
	average	580	37	108	8	.283	13	31	30	29	28	30

Only Howard, Dunn, Delgado, and Fielder make both lists, but this isn't a surprising group of hitters. Only Ludwick is a bargain basement item, and the only other hitters who cost less than $20 are Burrell and Delgado.

If you're only looking at power, though, this group was eminently satisfying.

Were Ryan Howard owners who plunked down $37 disappointed?

He lost $4 in batting average. But he earned a combined $34 in HR/RBI in the 4x4 format. Owners who bought Howard needed to scramble to make up that gap in average. But they sure had a nice leg up in HR.

I don't recommend overpaying for anyone. But I can see why owners did pay more for power. Expecting a 37/108/8/.283 hitter and getting back a 30/95/5/.273 hitter isn't a bad return at all.

However, looking for good batting average hitters and paying a little extra for them in the N.L. still might be a better play. That list was populated with not just high average hitters, but great hitters. The HR list has more of guys like Howard, Dunn, Delgado and Burrell. They help a lot in two categories, do nothing or next to nothing in one, and lose you Roto cash in a fourth. Having contributors across the board is why you should have been disappointed in your $37 investment in Ryan Howard, even if you weren't.