Top 10 N.L. Pitchers by Value, 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | AVG Cost | +/- | 2006 |
| 1 | Jake Peavy | $43 | $27 | +16 | $17 |
| 2 | Takashi Saito | $43 | $22 | +21 | $35 |
| 3 | Jose Valverde | $38 | $17 | +21 | $8 |
| 4 | Trevor Hoffman | $35 | $24 | +11 | $40 |
| 5 | Francisco Cordero | $34 | $22 | +12 | $25 |
| 6 | Brandon Webb | $34 | $26 | +8 | $35 |
| 7 | Jason Isringhausen | $32 | $14 | +18 | $25 |
| 8 | Billy Wagner | $31 | $28 | +3 | $38 |
| 9 | John Smoltz | $28 | $21 | +7 | $29 |
| 10 | Chad Cordero | $28 | $23 | +5 | $32 |
| Average | $35 | $22 | +13 | $28 |
2006 saw this list split down the middle, with five starters and five closers appearing. In 2007, Bronson Arroyo, Chris Carpenter and Roy Oswalt exited, with only Jake Peavy joining Smoltz and Webb in the Top 10.
In general, the A.L. Top 10 appears to be deeper, even though they only earn $1 more per pitcher than the N.L. pitchers listed here. As I mentioned in the A.L. post, I recognize the fact that $30 is an arbitrary dollar value, but the $3 drop from Wagner to Smoltz feels like a chasm.
Like in the A.L., the pitchers here take a pay cut, though it's only $6 per player (compared to $8 in the A.L.). Part of the reason this group holds its value a little more is because most of these pitchers are relievers and the disappointments (F. Cordero) and the unknowns (Valverde) get bumped up to the same general price bracket. It's as if the market is saying that there's a narrow range of prices for closers and we should pay that price, whether its for a Hoffman who earned $40 in 2006 or a Francisco Cordero who "only" earned $25.
Top 10 N.L. Pitchers by Cost, 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | AVG Cost | +/- | 2006 |
| 1 | Chris Carpenter | -$1 | $31 | -32 | $37 |
| 2 | Roy Oswalt | $21 | $28 | -7 | $33 |
| 3 | Billy Wagner | $31 | $28 | +3 | $38 |
| 4 | Jake Peavy | $43 | $27 | +16 | $17 |
| 5 | Brandon Webb | $34 | $26 | +8 | $35 |
| 6 | Carlos Zambrano | $19 | $25 | -6 | $24 |
| 7 | Trevor Hoffman | $35 | $24 | +11 | $40 |
| 8 | Chad Cordero | $28 | $23 | +5 | $32 |
| 9 | Ben Sheets | $16 | $23 | -7 | $13 |
| 10 | Brad Lidge | $20 | $23 | -3 | $17 |
| Average | $25 | $26 | -1 | $29 |
Part of the reason for that, though, is that the market wants these starting pitchers. It not only wants them, it goes wild, giving Peavy, Zambrano and Sheets raises. There's a good deal of speculation here. Saito, Smoltz, Tom Gordon and Arroyo were Top 10 earners in 2006 but don't get paid like it in 2007.
In the A.L., nine of 2006's Top 10 earners are paid the most in 2007. The N.L. market is expecting unpredictability, so the $26 per player here for a group of pitchers that "only" earned $29 in 2006 is actually more "expensive" than the $28 paid in the A.L. for the same group of pitchers that earned $35 per pitcher the year before.
In both leagues, the shocking thing is that the Ten Most Expensive Pitchers nearly earn what they are paid. Either these pitchers are unpredictably good and guys like Jake Peavy are ruining the curve for everyone, or the market is underpaying these guys. I'll save some time and tell you it's the latter, and save the explanation for a future post.
The speculation, though, is what you expect from owners. They're not going to pay $25 for Arroyo in the hopes that he repeats his $30 season. They're going to pay $25 for Zambrano in the hopes that he brings back $40 worth of earnings.
The market only goes one for three with these guys...
Top 10 Bargains N.L. Pitchers 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | AVG Cost | +/- | 2006 |
| 1 | Manny Corpas | $27 | $0 | +27 | $2 |
| 2 | Matt Capps | $27 | $4 | +23 | $13 |
| 3 | Takashi Saito | $43 | $22 | +21 | $35 |
| 4 | Jose Valverde | $38 | $17 | +21 | $8 |
| 5 | Kevin Gregg | $24 | $5 | +19 | $3 |
| 6 | David Weathers | $27 | $9 | +18 | $14 |
| 7 | Jason Isringhausen | $32 | $14 | +18 | $25 |
| 8 | Brad Hennessey | $18 | $0 | +18 | $5 |
| 9 | Tim Hudson | $27 | $10 | +17 | $4 |
| 10 | Jake Peavy | $43 | $27 | +16 | $17 |
| Average | $31 | $11 | +20 | $13 |
...and almost doesn't grab any bargain starters at all.
The A.L. version of this list has five starting pitchers on it, while here relievers dominate: four closers wire-to-wire, and four closers who took over at some point during the season. The cheap starting pitching that was there in the A.L. didn't come to fruition in the N.L. There were no Dustin McGowans or Brian Bannisters waiting to emerge and earn $15+, either as free agents or - in leagues that auctioned early like LABR and Tout Wars - as $1 fliers in the end game.
This makes buying starting pitching even more challenging if you don't even possess the hope that you'll luck into a great $1-3 pitcher in the crapshoot. And the relief pitcher game is even more tenuous. Corpas, Capps, Gregg and Hennessey sure didn't look like sure things back in April; you could have thrown a dart at any middle reliever and felt better about picking up a mid-season closer.
Profits aside, Peavy probably has more impact than any player on this list. He's not only the best starting pitcher, he is also the most profitable. That combination made him one of the highest impact players in Roto in 2007.
Behind him would be Saito, another high value/high earnings player. Closers are often disrespected because they're one trick ponies, but Saito earned $17 in ERA/WHIP. Peavy's $27 earnings in these categories left Saito in the dust, but is comparable to the $18 Brandon Webb earned. You typically can't predict reliever earnings in ERA/WHIP, but the potential alone makes it worth kicking a couple of bucks toward top closer talent.
Top 10 N.L. Pitcher Busts, 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | AVG Cost | +/- | 2006 |
| 1 | Chris Carpenter* | -$1 | $31 | -32 | $37 |
| 2 | Scott Olsen | -$17 | $14 | -31 | $15 |
| 3 | Dontrelle Willis | -$9 | $16 | -25 | $11 |
| 4 | Jason Jennings | -$9 | $12 | -21 | $12 |
| 5 | Freddy Garcia | -$7 | $14 | -21 | $16 |
| 6 | Clay Hensley | -$10 | $10 | -20 | $15 |
| 7 | Jason Schmidt | -$4 | $16 | -20 | $20 |
| 8 | Zach Duke | -$12 | $7 | -19 | $2 |
| 9 | John Patterson | -$8 | $11 | -19 | $3 |
| 10 | Chris Capuano | -$5 | $13 | -18 | $17 |
| Average | -$9 | $14 | -22 | $15 |
*see note in "comments" section.
This is an ugly group of pitchers and it isn't a cheap ride. $14 per pitcher doesn't sound like a lot, but if you're paying $85 for your staff, that's nearly 1/6th of your money and you're probably looking at your #2 or #3 starter. Taking this kind of beating even once is the kind of thing that ruins seasons.
In 2007, a total of 17 starting pitchers were purchased between $10-16. Eight of those pitchers - or nearly half - are in this chart. Five others lose at least $5 on their investment, leaving only four pitchers in this group turning a profit. Derek Lowe is the only starter who turns a double digit profit.
You had a 4-in-17 chance of making a profit if you spent between $10-16 on a starting pitcher last year.
What happened? The N.L. used to be the place where you could buy 2-3 starting pitchers for $15-20 apiece and then fool around in the endgame looking for a $1 flier. Why pay $30 for an excellent starter when the so many of the $15 bids were going to pan out?
Those days seem long gone. The payoff comes with a pitcher like Peavy or Webb. If you've got a 75% chance of buying a negative value pitcher in the middle-tier, you're better off shooting for a stud early, and making sure you at least get positive earnings, if not profits, from your ace. Even if you have to pay for an ace and don't get one.
2 comments:
Earlier, I had listed Chris Carpenter with a $19 average value. I had thought that Alex Patton and Rotoman had removed their bids for Carpenter due to his injury. However, I had manually done this before one of my auctions, and their final bid price for Carpenter was still full market value. I'm not going to go back now and fix this in previous articles, but I am rectifying this mistake now and in all future articles.
Did you notice that Brad Hennessey got signed to a 1 year, $1.6 million contract today with the Giants? The San Francisco Giants Blog talks all about it.
Post a Comment