Top 10 N.L. Hitters by Cost, 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | Cost | +/- | 2006 |
| 1 | Albert Pujols | $32 | $43 | -11 | $44 |
| 2 | Jose Reyes | $43 | $41 | +2 | $48 |
| 3 | Alfonso Soriano | $31 | $38 | -7 | $44 |
| 4t | Miguel Cabrera | $33 | $35 | -2 | $36 |
| 4t | David Wright | $45 | $35 | +10 | $37 |
| 6t | Carlos Beltran | $33 | $34 | -1 | $35 |
| 6t | Ryan Howard | $30 | $34 | -4 | $44 |
| 8 | Chase Utley | $32 | $33 | -1 | $35 |
| 9t | Lance Berkman | $26 | $32 | -6 | $39 |
| 9t | Matt Holliday | $44 | $32 | +12 | $38 |
| Average | $35 | $36 | -1 | $40 |
This is an even more reliable group than their A.L. counterparts, coming within $1 per player of breaking even.
Words will fail to describe how incredible this is. There typically is at least one expensive player who will also land on the Top 10 Busts list. Not this year. Albert Pujols is the biggest loser at -$11, and you're still getting over $30 of production.
If you simply picked one of these players at random, you'd have a 90% chance of getting $30 or more of stats. In the A.L., the corresponding group only gave you a 50% chance of getting a $30+ player.
The market should pay more for these guys. They earned $40 per player in 2006. But the market already feels liberal enough paying $35 per player. Can't go back to Stage One, can we?
True, you're also losing money on seven of these players. But you're also ensuring that you're buying one of the best players in the league.
Top 10 N.L. Hitters by Earnings, 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | Cost | +/- | 2006 |
| 1 | Hanley Ramirez | $50 | $30 | +20 | $37 |
| 2 | David Wright | $45 | $35 | +10 | $37 |
| 3 | Matt Holliday | $44 | $32 | +12 | $38 |
| 4 | Jose Reyes | $43 | $41 | +2 | $48 |
| 5 | Jimmy Rollins | $42 | $31 | +11 | $34 |
| 6 | Eric Byrnes | $39 | $18 | +21 | $27 |
| 7 | Brandon Phillips | $36 | $19 | +17 | $25 |
| 8 | Ryan Braun | $35 | $3 | +32 | |
| 9 | Juan Pierre | $34 | $27 | +7 | $34 |
| 10 | Miguel Cabrera | $33 | $35 | -2 | $36 |
| Average | $40 | $27 | +13 | $32 |
Or almost ensuring it. Rollins and Ramirez miss the 10 Most Expensive list by a hair.
In terms of cost/earnings, this group of hitters is almost a mirror of the same A.L. list. However, the N.L. group earned an average of $6 more per hitter in 2006. And there are some radical pay cuts here. Byrnes gets paid $9 less in 2007 than he earned in 2006. Pierre, Ramirez and Reyes get $7 pay cuts, Holliday and Phillips get dinked $6.
With the exception of Braun - who only gets a price because LABR/Tout Wars allow you to buy players who might start the year in the minors - this was not a cheap group of hitters. If you wanted a shot at $30+ production, you had to spend at least $18. This holds true if you scan down through all of the National League's 18 $30+ hitters. Even the surprises in this chart aren't that shocking, discounting for Braun, who was more of a lottery ticket than a surprise.
Top 10 N.L. Hitter Bargains, 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | Cost | +/- | 2006 |
| 1 | Ryan Braun | $35 | $3 | +32 | |
| 2 | Hunter Pence | $24 | $1 | +23 | |
| 3 | Eric Byrnes | $39 | $18 | +21 | $27 |
| 4 | Hanley Ramirez | $50 | $30 | +20 | $37 |
| 5 | Brandon Phillips | $36 | $19 | +17 | $25 |
| 6 | Troy Tulowitzki | $25 | $8 | +17 | $1 |
| 7 | Corey Hart | $29 | $13 | +16 | $10 |
| 8 | Matt Diaz | $18 | $2 | +16 | $13 |
| 9 | Dmitri Young | $19 | $4 | +15 | $4 |
| 10 | James Loney | $19 | $4 | +15 | $4 |
| Average | $29 | $10 | +19 | $13 |
Back in the mid-1990s, when Alex Patton ran these lists in his seminal books, Braun, Pence and Loney would not have made the cut, since they didn't start out the year on a major league roster. This makes the list sort of feel tainted to me. On the other hand, it does give a pretty strong indication of the impact rookies had on the National League in 2007. Not a single rookie made the A.L. list.
And that wasn't the only contrast. The A.L. featured a lot of Lazarus-types reviving their careers and coming out of the brink of obscurity. Carlos Pena, Marlon Byrd, Matt Stairs...these are the types of players at the end of the auction who you don't feel good about. You kind of sigh, shrug your shoulders, and hope that the waiver wire is kind to you.
The N.L. bargain scene is completely different, and is dominated by rookies and second-year players. Matt Diaz is the only hitter who comes close to fulfilling the notion of a player who you pick up in the crapshoot and smile when he puts up $18 worth of stats. Young comes close.
The rookies/young players who were available in National League auctions weren't exactly cheap. $8 for Tulo seems like a bargain now, but he was less than impressive in his 96 AB in 2006, and his 2/22/1/.277 line through May hardly made him look like he'd wind up on this list. Corey Hart looked like a decent enough player in 2006, but his 796 OPS didn't exactly scream big earnings in 2007, and the market reacted accordingly.
Top 10 N.L. Hitter Busts, 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | Cost | +/- | 2006 |
| 1 | Jason Bay | $13 | $30 | -17 | $31 |
| 2 | Carlos Quentin | $1 | $17 | -16 | $6 |
| 3 | Andruw Jones | $12 | $27 | -15 | $29 |
| 4 | Chad Tracy | $5 | $19 | -14 | $19 |
| 5 | Morgan Ensberg | $4 | $18 | -14 | $10 |
| 6 | Chris Burke | $4 | $17 | -13 | $12 |
| 7 | Marcus Giles | $4 | $17 | -13 | $13 |
| 8 | Ryan Freel | $6 | $19 | -13 | $21 |
| 9 | Bill Hall | $10 | $22 | -12 | $24 |
| 10 | Scott Rolen | $10 | $22 | -12 | $24 |
| Average | $7 | $21 | -14 | $19 |
All of the sudden, the market has gone a little crazy, giving this group of hitters a $2 raise across the board. There's a lot of speculation on comeback candidates like Burke and Ensberg, and these guys simply don't work out. This list if dominated by vets, and not even over-the-hill ones at that. At 32, Rolen is the oldest hitter on this list, and over half the players here are under-30.
But why aren't these hitters cheated?
I'm guessing that there is a ceiling on the best hitters, regardless of what they did the year before. The ten best National League hitters in 2006 earned $40.2 per hitter. The market swaps out Ramirez for Beltran in 2007, but otherwise the list (if not the order) stays the same. Despite this, the market can't bring itself to pay $40 per hitter in 2007.
The money is going to go to one of two places: pitching, or other hitters.
With LABR spending $179 and Tout Wars spending $181 per team on offense, it's not going to the pitchers.
The result is that the market gets stuck somewhere, and it's on these types of hitters who should, in theory, bounce back. Of course, not every candidate to bounce back will, but it's striking that so many of the busts are these 27-32 year old hitters and the same can't be said in the bargain category.
1 comment:
Thanks for continuing Alex's work. All these pieces are very thought-provoking.
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