Top 10 A.L. Hitters by Cost, 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | Cost | +/- | 2006 |
| 1 | Carl Crawford | $41 | $40 | +1 | $44 |
| 2 | Alex Rodriguez | $54 | $38 | +16 | $33 |
| 3 | Vladimir Guerrero | $33 | $36 | -3 | $39 |
| 4t | David Ortiz | $36 | $32 | +4 | $34 |
| 4t | Ichiro Suzuki | $40 | $32 | +8 | $37 |
| 6t | Grady Sizemore | $32 | $31 | +1 | $29 |
| 6t | Mark Teixeira | $12 | $31 | -19 | $24 |
| 8t | Bobby Abreu | $29 | $31 | -2 | $32 |
| 8t | Travis Hafner | $19 | $31 | -12 | $30 |
| 10t | Derek Jeter | $28 | $30 | -2 | $41 |
| 10t | Manny Ramirez | $20 | $30 | -10 | $28 |
| Average | $31 | $33 | -2 | $34 |
I've produced a version of this chart at least once this winter, but this is what I consider the final, "official" chart, and the closest thing to what Alex Patton used to produce in his books.
The earnings column is my calculation of Patton formulas for 4x4 in 2007. The cost column is a combination of the predictions of Patton, Peter Kreutzer (a.k.a Rotoman), and Sports Weekly, along with the auctions for LABR and Tout Wars. The 2006 earnings also belong to Patton.
A-Rod has a lot to do with it, but this is a group of winners.
They bring back 94 cents on the dollar, and even come pretty close to duplicating what they did in 2006 as a group. This is amazing; wouldn't you expect the 10 most expensive players to fail more on the whole? Certainly, there are failures (Hafner, Ramirez, Teixeira), but these players are winners.
How predictable were these hitters?
Top 10 A.L. Hitters by Earnings, 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | Cost | +/- | 2006 |
| 1 | Alex Rodriguez | $54 | $38 | +16 | $33 |
| 2 | Magglio Ordonez | $43 | $19 | +24 | $22 |
| 3 | Carl Crawford | $41 | $40 | +1 | $44 |
| 4 | Ichiro Suzuki | $40 | $32 | +8 | $37 |
| 5 | David Ortiz | $36 | $32 | +4 | $34 |
| 6 | Brian Roberts | $35 | $24 | +11 | $26 |
| 7 | Nick Markakis | $33 | $19 | +14 | $14 |
| 8 | Vladimir Guerrero | $33 | $36 | -3 | $39 |
| 9 | Curtis Granderson | $33 | $15 | +18 | $14 |
| 10 | Carlos Pena | $32 | $1 | +31 | $1 |
| Average | $38 | $26 | +12 | $26 |
This is a very predictable group of hitters. At $26 a throw, you're going to have to spend money if you want big-time production.
And the air is even more stratified at the top of the heap. Magglio Ordonez is the only player who cracks into the predicted Top 5. The order is flipped around, but A-Rod, Crawford, Suzuki and Ortiz appear in both the five most expensive hitters and the five best hitters. That's reliability. Even Guerrero, who ruins the party in the Top 5, isn't that far off at #8.
Carlos Pena is the only true surprise here: a crapshoot player who pays off big. Roberts, Ordonez and Markakis certainly weren't expensive but they weren't exactly bargains at $19 or more. Markakis (along with Ian Kinsler) was the 41st most expensive hitter in the American League last year. You might not have expected him to be your best hitter, in other words, but you did expect him to be one of your three best hitters (based on cost).
Top 10 A.L. Hitter Bargains, 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | Cost | +/- | 2006 |
| 1 | Carlos Pena | $32 | $1 | +31 | $1 |
| 2 | Magglio Ordonez | $43 | $19 | +24 | $22 |
| 3 | B.J. Upton | $31 | $10 | +21 | $4 |
| 4 | Curtis Granderson | $33 | $15 | +18 | $14 |
| 5 | Marlon Byrd | $18 | $0 | +18 | $2 |
| 6 | Mike Lowell | $31 | $13 | +18 | $17 |
| 7 | Matt Stairs | $17 | $0 | +17 | $6 |
| 8 | Alex Rodriguez | $54 | $38 | +16 | $33 |
| 9 | Placido Polanco | $25 | $11 | +14 | $9 |
| 10 | Nick Markakis | $33 | $19 | +14 | $14 |
| Average | $32 | $13 | +19 | $12 |
In the old days, Marlon Byrd would have been disqualified from this list. He wasn't on a major league roster to start 2007, and the leagues used to track Byrd would have not bid on him. Pena and Stairs, though, were available to be purchased. For both Byrd and Stairs, the $0 bid means that their average price was less than 60 cents but more than zero; at least one tout suggested a $1 bid but no more than two did.
But, once again, this isn't a cheap group of players. Every other player here goes for double digits, making your average bargain cost $13 per player. Grabbing Lowell at $13 or Polanco at $10 is nice if they break through, but this isn't the profile you expect when Sports Weekly or a fantasy mag talks about "sleepers" or "bargains". This group has more grizzled veterans than you'd expect, and flies in the face of the idea that most bargains are young players.
Top 10 A.L. Hitter Busts, 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | Cost | +/- | 2006 |
| 1 | Rocco Baldelli | $1 | $23 | -22 | $18 |
| 2 | Mark Teixeira | $12 | $31 | -19 | $24 |
| 3 | Richie Sexson | $6 | $23 | -17 | $20 |
| 4 | Lyle Overbay | $5 | $21 | -16 | $24 |
| 5 | Joe Crede | $1 | $16 | -15 | $20 |
| 6 | Vernon Wells | $14 | $28 | -14 | $33 |
| 7 | Ryan Shealy | $0 | $14 | -14 | $6 |
| 8 | Milton Bradley | $3 | $15 | -12 | $14 |
| 9 | Travis Hafner | $19 | $31 | -12 | $30 |
| 10 | Scott Podsednik | $5 | $17 | -12 | $21 |
| Average | $7 | $22 | -15 | $21 |
This group seems to be mostly absent of rookies as well. So much for the old canard that owners overpay for youth. This is what happens in Stage Three. The busts are commonly veterans that get hurt. There are a few non-injury cases here, but a number of these guys suffered through maladies that weren't the biggest surprise in the world, given the history of the players involved.
A common phenomenon in these losses tables is that the players in question get a slight pay raise from the year before. This chart proves no exception. This year's bust is often expected to be this year's rebound candidate and, as we all know, not everyone can rebound and exceed expectations.
There's also a little Stage Two creeping into this chart, at least in retrospect. Paying $14 for a 27-year-old ex-prospect like Ryan Shealy or $23 for a perpetually injury-prone Rocco Baldelli smacks of wish casting.
Stage Three is what it is, though. You might not like some of these prices now, but how low would you have let Joe Crede go in your A.L.? $12? $10?
Are you sure? He earned $20 the year before. Maybe his back will be fine.
What about Milton Bradley? Yeah, I know he's a head case and an injury waiting to happen. But he also could put up $20-25 worth of stats. Are you sure you want to let him slip to someone at $12?
That's Stage Three for you. The prices are what they are. I'm nodding my head, not shaking it, when I look at this chart. The busts are evident now, but most of these prices made sense back in March or April.
No comments:
Post a Comment