Tout Wars A.L. Reserve Draft: Round 1
| NOM | # | Player | AP | Earned | BABG | |
| Shandler | 1 | Josh Fields | R1 | $13 | Farm | |
| Berry | 2 | Adam Lind | R1 | $6 | Farm | |
| Walker | 3 | Brian Anderson | $2 | -$1 | $1 | |
| Siano | 4 | Adam Jones | R2 | $1 | Farm | |
| Peterson | 5 | Robinson Tejeda | $2 | -$14 | $5 | |
| Sheehan | 6 | Charlie Haeger | R2 | -$4 | ||
| Grey | 7 | Bobby Kielty | $0 | $2 | $1 | |
| Michaels | 8 | Jaret Wright | $1 | -$3 | $1 | |
| Wolf | 9 | Gustavo Chacin | $4 | $0 | $1F | |
| Erickson | 10 | Robb Quinlan | $3 | $3 | $1 | |
| Moyer | 11 | Devern Hansack | -$1 | |||
| Colton | 12 | Hayden Penn | R3 | |||
| Average | $1 | $0 | $1 |
These data are from the Tout Wars A.L.-only draft from late March. The AP column is what fantasy guru Alex Patton recommended doing on April 5, the earned column is derived from Alex's actual earnings, while the BABG column shows you what my A.L. league, using a farm-only draft, did with the same players.
One significant difference right off the bat is that more pitchers are selected in this format. Since pitchers on an active major league roster can be selected, the possible damage from a Robinson Tejeda is neutralized if you pick him up as a reserve pick. After the top minor leaguers who weren't auctioned are selected, the room quickly shifts to pitching. The results are poor, but it's better to get stuck with a Tejeda on your reserve list than to be forced to pay $5 for the same ride in a carryover league where you must carry him on your roster.
Kielty and Quinlan are the major league bench warmer picks that don't work out.
Tout Wars A.L. Reserve Draft: Round 2
| NOM | # | Player | AP | Earned | BABG | |
| Colton | 13 | Daric Barton | $4 | Farm | ||
| Moyer | 14 | Scott Baker | R2 | $8 | ||
| Erickson | 15 | Andrew Miller | R1 | -$5 | Farm | |
| Wolf | 16 | Steve Trachsel | -$2 | |||
| Michaels | 17 | Jason Botts | R3 | $1 | Farm | |
| Grey | 18 | Josh Phelps | $3 | $2 | $1 | |
| Sheehan | 19 | Wil Ledezma | -$2 | |||
| Peterson | 20 | Carlos Silva | $3 | $13 | $1 | |
| Siano | 21 | George Sherrill | $11 | |||
| Walker | 22 | Omar Infante | $1 | $4 | $1 | |
| Berry | 23 | Luke Hudson | $3 | -$2 | ||
| Shandler | 24 | Chris Britton | $1 | |||
| Average | $1 | $3 | $0 |
The unpredictably of reserve drafts rears its ugly head here, as Carlos Silva, the 25th best American League starting pitcher, doesn't go until the 20th pick of the reserve draft. AP is starting to yawn already; he doesn't even recommend nearly half of these players as reserve picks (the "R" designation, which is explained in detail in his past books). BABG, with its thinner farm lists, will simply play the waiting game and FAAB most of the guys it didn't buy later.
Tout Wars A.L. Reserve Draft: Round 3
| NOM | # | Player | AP | Earned | BABG | |
| Shandler | 25 | Casey Fossum | $1 | -$14 | ||
| Berry | 26 | Eric Hinske | $4 | $2 | $2 | |
| Walker | 27 | Joakim Soria | $24 | |||
| Siano | 28 | Ryan Sweeney | R2 | $0 | ||
| Peterson | 29 | Kameron Loe | $1 | -$8 | $1 | |
| Sheehan | 30 | Jason Tyner | $1 | $7 | $1 | |
| Grey | 31 | Matt Stairs | $1 | $17 | $2F | |
| Michaels | 32 | Rob Mackowiak | $3 | $8 | $1 | |
| Wolf | 33 | Marlon Byrd | R2 | $18 | ||
| Erickson | 34 | Kevin Slowey | $1 | |||
| Moyer | 35 | Joe Kennedy | $1 | -$2 | $1 | |
| Colton | 36 | Rainer Olmedo | -$1 | |||
| Average | $1 | $6 | $1 |
The ROI should be dropping round-by-round, but it keeps climbing. Now the veteran hitters who are taken produce big victories, with Matt Stairs benefiting from Lyle Overbay and Adam Lind's ineffectiveness, Marlon Byrd benefiting from Nelson Cruz's disappearance, and Rob Mackowiak simply providing the usual $7+ of stats he's provided the since 2003. And Joakim Soria, who really seemed like a shot in the dark, is the most productive reserve pick of all.
Tout Wars A.L. Reserve Draft: Round 4
| NOM | # | Player | AP | Earned | BABG | |
| Colton | 37 | Kiko Calero | $2 | -$4 | $1F | |
| Moyer | 38 | Ryan Braun | -$6 | $1 | ||
| Erickson | 39 | Shaun Marcum | $15 | |||
| Wolf | 40 | Jeff Niemann | R3 | Farm | ||
| Michaels | 41 | Cha-Seung Baek | R2 | $0 | ||
| Grey | 42 | Jeff Cirillo | $1 | $3 | ||
| Sheehan | 43 | Adam Melhuse | $1 | -$1 | ||
| Peterson | 44 | Antonio Perez | R3 | |||
| Siano | 45 | Jeff Karstens | $2 | -$7 | $1 | |
| Walker | 46 | Brandon Morrow | $1 | -$2 | $2 | |
| Berry | 47 | Gavin Floyd | R2 | -$4 | ||
| Shandler | 48 | Edwin Jackson | $1 | -$19 | ||
| Average | $1 | -$2 | $0 |
Even with Marcum, this group's a disaster, but the nice thing about a taxi squad is that only an insane or desperate owner would have let Edwin Jackson and his 7.23 Pre-All Star ERA anywhere near his active roster. You only need one Marcum on your entire reserve list to put a smile on your face.
You might wonder why Patton has so many $1 and $2 bids here, but Alex doesn't have the luxury of putting a $1 bid on Kurt Suzuki if Kurt's going to start the year in the minors. He has to put a minimum of 276 bids on major league players, which is why he's stuck giving Melhuse $1. BABG is stuck in the same boat, and only has 24 farm picks, so it can't hide someone like Baek or Gavin Floyd on reserve in the hopes they show up later. A two round minor league draft means that you wait for your pitchers to come to you via FAAB if they're B+ prospects or weaker.
Tout Wars A.L. Reserve Draft: Round 5
| NOM | # | Player | AP | Earned | BABG | |
| Shandler | 49 | Frank Francisco | $2 | -$3 | ||
| Berry | 50 | Fred Bynum | R3 | $5 | ||
| Walker | 51 | Miguel Cairo | $1 | $4 | ||
| Siano | 52 | Evan Longoria | R1 | Farm | ||
| Peterson | 53 | Erubiel Durazo | R3 | |||
| Sheehan | 54 | Joaquin Benoit | R3 | $18 | ||
| Grey | 55 | Lew Ford | $2 | $2 | ||
| Michaels | 56 | Miguel Ojeda | R3 | |||
| Wolf | 57 | Ross Gload | $9 | $10 | $10F | |
| Erickson | 58 | Alex Cora | $1 | $2 | ||
| Moyer | 59 | Travis Buck | $5 | $9 | $8 | |
| Colton | 60 | Jason Hammel | R3 | -$10 | ||
| Average | $2 | $3 | $2 |
Tout Wars' slightly early auction date explains Gload and Buck. Buck wasn't expected to break camp with the A's, while Gload didn't earn a platoon job (with Emil Brown) until Opening Day.
Curiously, Patton is now interested in every one of these players at least as a reserve pick, while BABG passes on everyone except Gload, Buck and Longoria. Taking Buck and Gload out of the equation, the results here are pretty poor after Benoit. $5 for Bynum and $4 for Cairo sound impressive, but keeping a player like this on your active roster for a few garbage steals can only be done if you've got a fat cushion in HR/RBI or you're dumping power entirely.
Tout Wars A.L. Reserve Draft: Round 6
| NOM | # | Player | AP | Earned | BABG | |
| Colton | 61 | Trevor Crowe | ||||
| Moyer | 62 | Victor Zambrano | $3 | -$11 | ||
| Erickson | 63 | J.P. Howell | R2 | -$11 | ||
| Wolf | 64 | Josh Towers | $2 | -$2 | ||
| Michaels | 65 | Joel Pineiro | $2 | -$2 | $2 | |
| Grey | 66 | Andy Phillips | R3 | $4 | ||
| Sheehan | 67 | Hector Luna | R2 | $0 | ||
| Peterson | 68 | Ramon Ortiz | $1 | -$1 | $1 | |
| Siano | 69 | Nick Adenhart | R2 | Farm | ||
| Walker | 70 | Sidney Ponson | $1 | -$7 | $1 | |
| Berry | 71 | Chad Bradford | $1 | $6 | ||
| Shandler | 72 | Darrell Rasner | $1 | $0 | ||
| Average | $1 | -$2 | $0 |
It's almost like Tout Wars has run out of hitters to pick and is stuck grabbing pitchers. BABG has virtually disappeared, but AP keeps plugging away. Why?
Again, AP is stuck bidding on pitchers that make the team. The fact that Matt Garza went for $9 in the auction doesn't do Alex a lot of good; he's writing primarily for an audience that is bidding for major leaguers, not on minor leaguers. The $1 bids for pitchers versus the R3 designation is damning with faint praise; Patton has frequently pointed out that the $1 bid versus the R3 is interchangeable.
If, that is, the pitcher in question is on an active major league roster.
Interestingly, BABG only bought two of Patton's R3 pitchers: Matt Clement and Jorge de la Rosa. In fact, only two other "R" pitchers were purchased: Jon Lester at $5 (R2 in the software) and Francisco Liriano at $14 (R5). Including Patton's $0 pitchers (not even worth grabbing in the reserve round, at least not until after you've taken all the R3s), adds Luis Vizcaino (bought at $1), Tom Mastny ($1), and Fernando Cabrera ($4) to the list.
That's really a product of where we're at with pitchers in freeze leagues. The pitchers Patton is listing with bids are the guys we're going to buy. Even if we skip a few of his top 108 bids. If we don't like Luke Hudson, we're still going to bite on John Danks at $2. I can continue tossing out examples, but we all know what it's like in those trenches.
No comments:
Post a Comment