Reserve List Review: Farm Systems

Today, I'll look back at a league with a farm system and see how much impact these players had on a typical Rotisserie League.

In this league, the rules allow you to keep up to four minor leaguers after the auction phase. These players do not have to have rookie eligibility, but must be in the minors of the American League. No players on an active Major League Baseball roster may be drafted.

Some of these players were drafted last year, but others were drafted in prior years.

There were a total of 37 players drafted in 2007 or kept from previous years. Rather than look back at what these players earned, I'll break them into groups based on common expectations entering the 2007 season. To eliminate the benefit of hindsight, I'll use the ETAs from Baseball America's Top 100 Prospect List from 2007. Patton $ earnings will be listed in parenthesis.

ETA 2007 (13): Daric Barton ($4), Billy Butler ($10), Josh Fields ($13), Matt Garza ($3), Phil Hughes ($5), Adam Jones ($1), Adam Lind ($6), Evan Longoria (DNP), Adam Miller (DNP), Jeff Niemann (DNP), Glen Perkins ($2), Ryan Sweeney (-$0), Brandon Wood (-$1).

Predictably, a number of players drafted are picked to make an impact this year. Ten of the 13 do indeed make the majors, though guys like Barton and Jones only get a sip of coffee. In terms of 2007 impact, this list isn't as impressive as you might hope, though a few of these guys should make a greater impact in 2008.

ETA 2008 (7): Nick Adenhart (DNP), Brian Barton (DNP), Reid Brignac (DNP), Jeff Clement ($2), Jacoby Ellsbury ($10), Luke Hochevar ($2), Andrew Miller (-$5).

These players are picked with an eye on the future, though once in a while a few break through. However, the impact is limited, with only Ellsbury providing big-time stats, and even he did that late.

ETA 2009 (4): Cameron Maybin ($1), Bill Rowell (DNP), Travis Snider (DNP), Jose Tabata (DNP).

Even leagues with shallow farm systems will go after a handful of these guys; Maybin was drafted in 2006, in fact. The goal is to find players who will be big earners right off the bat, even if you have to wait 2-3 years for that impact.

"Lesser" Prospects (7): Michael Aubrey (DNP), Wes Bankston (DNP), Alexi Casilla ($2), Joel Guzman ($0), Justin Huber (-$1), Kevin Melillo ($0), Kyle Sleeth (DNP).

Most of these players were drafted prior to 2007, and their owners kept them because they still fit under their four-man limit. Casilla and Guzman were drafted in 2007 more in the hopes of some short-term impact than for the purposes of long-term superstardom.

Former Major Leaguers (6): Jason Botts ($1), Jorge Cantu (-$1), Shin-Soo Choo ($1), Kendry Morales ($4), Chad Orvella (-$8), Chris Shelton (DNP).

These are players past their rookie eligibility who were sent to the minors. In most cases, these are players who took a step back but who might contribute at some point in the future. With the exception of Morales, they don't, and Morales and Shelton are probably the only players on this list who currently look like they'll have an impact in 2008.

This analysis is by no means meant to be comprehensive. But the short-term impact of these rookies is weak indeed. It would be more useful to look back at this group again sometime in 2008 and see what impact they have.

One problem that is never addressed by the non-keeper fantasy world is the issue of contract status. For all of these players, the clock starts ticking once they're brought up to an active Rotisserie roster. Billy Butler should turn a profit on his $10 salary this year, but his owner will already have to decide whether or not to give him a contract in late March 2009. If he puts up a $15-17 season next year, that's not necessarily a given.

On the flip side, you do need to have some of these players to flip to a non-contender if you're in the running. Having a $1 Esteban German is a value play for your current roster, but you're not going to sucker some non-contender into building around German. You do need to take the plunge on rookies in the hopes that one of them turns into Josh Fields.