Never overbid on rookies, and try to avoid bidding on them altogether. The value generated from all rookies is not more than 50% of what is spent on them.Let's once again take a misty-eyed look back at the wonderful year that was 2007.
Auctioned or Frozen Hitters:
Billy Almon Brown Graduate League (AL)
| Rank | Player | Cost | Earned | +/- | AP | 2006 |
| 1 | Delmon Young | $10F | $22 | +12 | $24 | $4 |
| 2 | Dustin Pedroia | $10F | $18 | +8 | $3 | -$1 |
| 3 | Alex Gordon | $5F | $14 | +9 | $17 | |
| 4 | Travis Buck | $8 | $9 | +1 | $5 | |
| 5 | Tony Pena Jr. | $1 | $7 | +6 | -$0 | |
| 6 | Elijiah Dukes | $9 | $2 | -7 | $2 | |
| 7 | Erick Aybar | $7 | $2 | -5 | $2 | $0 |
| 8 | Chris Heintz | $1 | $0 | -1 | -$0 | |
| 9 | Joaquin Arias | $1 | -1 | $1 | $1 | |
| Average | $6 | $8 | +2 | $6 | $0 |
These are the rookies (less than 130 AB; Chris Heintz might not technically be a rookie, but I'm too lazy to look up service time) that were on the Opening Day active rosters for Billy Almon Brown Graduate. This doesn't include either A) rookies that were kept on farm rosters or B) rookies who were promoted to the majors mid-season.
And it turns out the ROI here is more than 50% across the board.
Aybar and Dukes are the only busts. All of the frozen rooks deliver profits at reasonable freeze prices, though perhaps Gordon's owner was expecting a $20 season. Guys like Arias and Heintz were cheap endgame filler who didn't really matter much one way or the other.
Even if you take don't take freezes into account, the ROI here is still solid. Getting back $22 of value from a $24 bid isn't optimal, obviously, but it does buck the conventional wisdom that rookies are automatic busts.
Auctioned or Frozen Rookie Pitchers:
Billy Almon Brown Graduate League (AL)
| Rank | Player | Cost | Earned | +/- | AP | 2006 |
| 1 | Dustin Moseley | $1 | $3 | +2 | -$4 | |
| 2 | Juan Salas | $1 | $1 | -0 | -$1 | |
| 3 | Brandon Morrow | $2 | -$2 | -4 | $1 | |
| 4 | Ryan Braun | $1 | -$6 | -7 | -$2 | |
| 5 | Jeff Karstens | $1 | -$7 | -8 | $2 | $4 |
| 6 | John Danks | $1 | -$8 | -9 | $2 | |
| Average | $1 | -$3 | -4 | $1 | -$1 |
Well, now these guys all suck.
But, since no one's paying anything for them, it doesn't matter all that much. If a contender bought Danks or Karstens and didn't like what he saw, he's not going to sit around and wait politely for Danks to earn ($8).
I am noticing something interesting about these rookies. For the most part, they're not being bought or frozen by contenders. Pena, Heintz and Karstens are the only ones purchased by teams that finished in the money spots. Perhaps this is a coincidence. But perhaps it says something about the types of chances owners take based on their roster needs.
Auctioned or Frozen Hitters:
Long Island Baseball League (NL)
| Rank | Player | Cost | Earned | +/- | AP | 2006 |
| 1 | Troy Tulowitzki | $5F | $25 | +20 | R2 | $1 |
| 2 | Kevin Kouzmanoff | $13 | $15 | +2 | $9 | $1 |
| 3 | Josh Hamilton | $1 | $14 | +9 | $5 | |
| 4 | Carlos Ruiz | $2 | $9 | +7 | $1 | $2 |
| 5 | Michael Bourn | $1 | $8 | +7 | R2 | $0 |
| 6 | Miguel Montero | $15 | $4 | -11 | $3 | $0 |
| 7 | Scott Thorman | $7 | $3 | -4 | $7 | $2 |
| 8 | Chris Iannetta | $5F | $1 | -4 | $1 | $1 |
| 9 | Jeff Baker | $13 | $0 | -13 | $3 | $7 |
| 10 | Alejandro De Aza | $3 | -$0 | -3 | $2 | |
| 11 | Alberto Callaspo | $1 | -$2 | -3 | $0 | |
| Average | $6 | $7 | +1 | $3 | $1 |
The overall return in the National League is worse because there are more rookies at the bottom of the pile who return nothing or less than nothing on their investment. Montero and Baker look either like poor Stage 2 plays or owners who didn't spend their money and would rather spend $15 on Montero than Yadier Molina in the endgame.
Auctioned or Frozen Rookie Pitchers:
Long Island Baseball League (NL)
| Rank | Player | Cost | Earned | +/- | AP | 2006 |
| 1 | Tony Pena | $2 | $14 | +12 | $1 | |
| 2 | Shawn Hill | $1 | $11 | +10 | R3 | -$1 |
| 3 | Micah Owings | $1 | $8 | +7 | ||
| 4 | Taylor Tankersley | $10 | $5 | -5 | $4 | $5 |
| 5 | Chris Sampson | $1 | $3 | +2 | $1 | $9 |
| 6 | Dustin Nippert | $5F | -$2 | -7 | R3 | -$5 |
| Average | $3 | $7 | +3 | $1 | $2 |
And this group of pitchers is a winner for National League owners. Only Nippert earns in negative numbers while Pena, Hill and Owings turn a tidy little profit at a cheap price.
So don't get sucked into the idea that rookies are automatically a losing proposition. But you might want to take a flier or two on cheap rookies in your endgame. Spending $1 on a proven 4th or 5th OF might get you 200-250 reliable AB of $5-7 in earnings. But spending $1 on Josh Hamilton might net you an even greater return. While you shouldn't take too many of these $1 fliers, taking one or two could net big dividends, and is a salient strategy if your freeze list is weak.
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