I play in a "traditional" 67%/33% hitting/pitching split league. Looking at the last 4 years, the splits are all approximately 67/33. Something odd is going on however: each year, 4 teams use a LIMA-like strategy (<$60 budget for pitching), while 4 teams go overboard (>$120 for pitching). While the total amount being spent on pitching is still relatively constant, I was wondering if these opposing strategies had any impact on the bid prices of the pitchers themselves. For example, if 4 teams are eschewing top-tier starters and 4 teams have money to burn on staffs, does that make Santana's price tag go up? (economics was never my strong suit).I addressed this issue in a few posts last winter, first from the standpoint of market theory and then from a league specific standpoint. Tom's question is more about league variability than market theory, but both topics play a role here. It would be helpful to go back and read these posts if you want to delve even deeper into this subject.
Tom approaches this question from yet another angle, though. If one or more teams spend less on starting pitching, do the prices of the best pitchers go up?
2005 Billy Almon Brown Graduate Round by Round: Pitchers Only
| NOM | # | Player | Cost | AP Inf. Bid | +/- | Buyer | LB |
| DER | 8 | Octavio Dotel | $29 | $30 | +1 | COP | QUI |
| SHA | 9 | Randy Johnson | $42 | $43 | +1 | BAT | DOZ |
| BAT | 10 | Eddie Guardado | $25 | $26 | +1 | DOZ | QUI |
| TOW | 11 | Curt Schilling | $36 | $36 | 0 | SHA | DER |
| DEW | 14 | Mike Mussina | $28 | $28 | 0 | NAR | QUI |
| QUI | 18 | Juan Rincon | $7 | $6 | -1 | DEW | SHA |
| TOW | 23 | Carl Pavano | $27 | $25 | -2 | DER | BEN |
| DOZ | 25 | Paul Byrd | $11 | $11 | 0 | DER | SHA |
| BEN | 29 | Kevin Millwood | $12 | $9 | -3 | BEN | TOW |
| QUI | 30 | Mike Maroth | $7 | $6 | -1 | DER | COP |
| NAR | 31 | Roy Halladay | $28 | $25 | -3 | QUI | BEN |
| DER | 32 | Ted Lilly | $18 | $11 | -7 | BEN | DEW |
| Average | $23 | $21 | -1 | -14 | Total |
I know, I know...Rotisserie owners have the memories of fruit flies, and have as much interest talking about any season before the previous year or the upcoming one as they do talking about Aunt Esther's constipation issues. But 2005 is useful to look at for two reasons: 1) the league spent $1007, or almost $84 per team, on pitchers, and 2) one team decided to try filling out its entire pitching staff for $9.
So my league in 2005 fits Tom's criteria. It spent almost 33% of its budget on pitching despite the fact that one team radically spent less on pitching.
And the pitchers here are pretty close to par. Despite the fact that one owner is going to not bid more than $1 on any pitcher before the day is done, there are no bargains here. In fact, these pitchers are slightly more expensive than Patton's inflation bids.
| NOM | # | Player | Cost | AP Inf. Bid | +/- | Buyer | LB |
| COP | 39 | Kelvim Escobar | $23 | $22 | -1 | TOW | NAR |
| ALT | 40 | Jaret Wright | $18 | $22 | +4 | QUI | ICH |
| BEN | 41 | Joel Pineiro | $18 | $9 | -9 | BEN | SHA |
| TOW | 47 | Barry Zito | $26 | $20 | -6 | DOZ | ALT |
| ICH | 48 | J.J. Putz | $7 | $4 | -3 | COP | DER |
| COP | 51 | Bartolo Colon | $20 | $21 | +1 | ALT | QUI |
| BEN | 53 | Jarrod Washburn | $14 | $17 | +3 | QUI | BEN |
| NAR | 55 | Matt Clement | $26 | $17 | -9 | COP | DEW |
| SHA | 57 | Freddy Garcia | $22 | $21 | -1 | SHA | DEW |
| TOW | 59 | David Wells | $17 | $10 | -7 | COP | DEW |
| ICH | 60 | Ugueth Urbina | $6 | $8 | +2 | QUI | ICH |
| DEW | 62 | Kevin Brown | $14 | $14 | 0 | ALT | QUI |
| Average | $18 | $15 | -2 | -26 | Total |
These pitchers aren't nearly as good but they go for significantly more than Patton recommends. It's difficult to look back and get second and third opinions from other touts, but it looks like the market is chasing this group because it knows the next set of pitchers are even uglier.
What's equally striking here are the differences in opinion. I thought I had bargains in Wright and Washburn, but the market clearly didn't agree, and it turned out the market was right. Still, Clement, Wells and Pineiro look like significant overreaches on the part of their buyers. You weren't seeing this kind of destructive activity in the first set of pitchers. The market knows there's risk in pitching, and doesn't want to go past par for the expected best ones. It knows how quick the crash to the floor is.
| NOM | # | Player | Cost | AP Inf. Bid | +/- | Buyer | LB |
| BEN | 65 | Dan Haren | $14 | $7 | -7 | BEN | ALT |
| ICH | 72 | Wade Miller | $7 | $4 | -3 | BEN | ALT |
| COP | 75 | Jesus Colome | $5 | $1 | -4 | COP | DER |
| BEN | 77 | Scott Kazmir | $11 | $6 | -5 | ALT | BAT |
| SHA | 81 | C.C. Sabathia | $12 | $12 | 0 | ALT | TOW |
| BAT | 82 | Tim Wakefield | $5 | $5 | 0 | BAT | TOW |
| DOZ | 85 | John Lackey | $10 | $10 | 0 | TOW | DOZ |
| DEW | 86 | Wil Ledezma | $7 | $1 | -6 | COP | ALT |
| ALT | 88 | Erik Bedard | $9 | $7 | -2 | DOZ | NAR |
| BEN | 89 | Mike Macdougal | $5 | $1 | -4 | DOZ | DEW |
| NAR | 91 | Jaime Moyer | $7 | $9 | +2 | NAR | QUI |
| DOZ | 97 | Mark Hendrickson | $1 | $1 | 0 | DOZ | |
| Average | $8 | $5 | -2 | -29 | Total |
If you haven't bought a pitcher by now, you're flat-out screwed. Shig Hasegawa will go for $5 later in the auction, but Hendrickson signifies the beginning of the pitching crapshoot.
Once again, the top pitchers are bargains compared to this group. My league is more likely to spend money on rookies or young pitchers like Kazmir or Haren than spend big on an ace.
So, to answer Tom's question, it appears that it is the second tier pitchers who go for more money. Possible explanations include:
1) No one knows that this owner is spending $9 on his pitching staff until late in the auction (he's even the last bidder on Wright and Urbina), so the market doesn't have time to adjust until the endgame. Since this team is committed to spending $251 on offense, the battles happen on the more expensive hitters, not the pitchers.
2) The market recognizes that the top players have a ceiling that inflation doesn't account for. If the best starter in the A.L. is expected to earn $35-40, then pushing him to $50 is a guaranteed loss. A $20 starter has a range of earnings possibilities. Granted, these second-tier pitchers have a much wider range of earnings possibilities, including negative earnings. But its hard to take a loss right off the bat.
3)A $45+ buy on a starting pitcher soaks up 17% of an owner's budget on one player. If an owner has a killer freeze list or strong pitching freezes, he might take this risk. Otherwise, he might be understandably gun shy.
4) Owners intuitively recognize that pitchers in the endgame will be "bargains", from the standpoint that expectations vary far more on bottom of the barrel pitchers. Fifteen pitchers went $3 or more below Patton's recommended inflation bid price as a result of one team not spending money on pitchers. Obviously, not all 15 turned into bargains. But some of them did, and the market knows these bargains are waiting in the endgame.
5) Freeze leagues tend to allocate a few more dollars to young pitchers like Scott Kazmir, Dan Haren or C.C. Sabathia because they know that the payoff is potentially enormous, not just for this year, but for the future. Bids should always be adjusted accordingly if you're playing in a freeze league.
As a matter of strategy, I don't recommend altering your bids up or down if you know four teams are employing a $60 LIMA strategy. As Tom points out, most leagues provide their own market correction and pitchers tend to go for $1020 or so across the entire league. If you plan accordingly, you will still grab some bargains. I'd recommend buying a full priced ace, one $10-15 starter and then filling out in the endgame with a few $1-3 fliers if you know other teams are using LIMA. You can always use FAAB to grab some arms later to supplement your ace.
No comments:
Post a Comment