Top 10 A.L. Pitchers 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | AVG Cost | +/- | 2006 |
| 1 | J.J. Putz | $49 | $24 | +25 | $40 |
| 2 | Joe Nathan | $39 | $31 | +8 | $45 |
| 3 | Bobby Jenks | $38 | $19 | +19 | $28 |
| 4 | Jon Papelbon | $37 | $19 | +18 | $44 |
| 5 | C.C. Sabathia | $35 | $19 | +16 | $25 |
| 6 | Francisco Rodriguez | $35 | $29 | +6 | $43 |
| 7 | Josh Beckett | $33 | $15 | +18 | $10 |
| 8 | John Lackey | $33 | $20 | +13 | $21 |
| 9 | Johan Santana | $32 | $41 | -9 | $46 |
| 10 | Fausto Carmona | $32 | $0 | +32 | -$7 |
| Average | $36 | $22 | +14 | $30 |
Five of the Top 10 earners were starters, compared to only two (Santana and Roy Halladay) the year before. In 4x4, this doesn't necessarily make for higher earnings at the top of the heap. The 2006 Top 10 averaged $40 per pitcher, with the top six pitchers earning $40+. You can see five of those seasons in the 2006 column; only B.J. Ryan is missing.
In 2006, there were 11 closers who earned $27 or more and saved 32 or more games. That number dropped to eight in 2007, and only six cracked the $30 barrier. In a 12-team, A.L. only league, that meant that 11 teams feasibly could have each owned one reliable closer. Not so last year. Perversely, even though fewer closers cracked $40 in 2007, the scarcity of top options made those $35+ seasons from the top five closers that much more valuable. If you didn't have any of those top eight relievers on your roster, you had a big problem. Particularly if you paid big money for someone else.
To me, though, the bigger story in 2007 was the emergence of viable starting pitching. In 2006, there was Johan Santana at $46, Roy Halladay at $34 and everyone else. Jered Weaver, the 5th best SP in 2006, earned "only" $26. That $6 difference between Carmona and Weaver might not seem like a lot, but the bigger deal is seeing five $30+ starters in 2007 versus only three in 2006.
The flip side of this coin was the slippage of Johan Santana. A $32 season was clearly nothing to sneeze at, but the market clearly expected more.
10 Most Expensive A.L. Pitchers 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | AVG Cost | +/- | 2006 |
| 1 | Johan Santana | $32 | $41 | -9 | $46 |
| 2 | Joe Nathan | $39 | $31 | +8 | $45 |
| 3 | Mariano Rivera | $28 | $29 | -1 | $39 |
| 4 | Francisco Rodriguez | $35 | $29 | +6 | $43 |
| 5 | Roy Halladay | $23 | $29 | -6 | $34 |
| 6 | B.J. Ryan | -$1 | $28 | -29 | $42 |
| 7 | Huston Street | $22 | $26 | -4 | $33 |
| 8 | J.J. Putz | $49 | $24 | +25 | $40 |
| 9 | Daisuke Matsuzaka | $13 | $23 | -10 | |
| 10 | Chris Ray | $15 | $22 | -7 | $32 |
| Average | $26 | $28 | -2 | $35 |
The 10 Most Expensive pitchers in 2007 nearly mirror the 10 best pitchers from 2006. Papelbon is replaced by D-Mat, but otherwise this is the same cast of characters.
Typically, the market will bump the price up of a handful of starting pitchers who are young and up-and-coming, but there simply wasn't a consensus on who those pitchers should have been. After Santana, there isn't a consensus pecking order from 2-5.
Patton: Halladay $32, D-Mat $28, Felix Hernandez $23, Erik Bedard $21
Rotoman: Halladay $35, D-Mat $22, Jeremy Bonderman $21, Sabathia $19, Dan Haren $19.
LABR: Halladay $26, Bonderman $25, Hernandez $24, Lackey $23, D-Mat $23
Tout Wars: Lackey $24, Haren $23, Hernandez $23, Bonderman $22, Halladay $22, Sabathia $22.
Sports Weekly: Halladay $28, Hernandez $20, D-Mat $20, Bonderman $19, Sabathia $19, Schilling $19.
Halladay is a near-consensus pitcher. But the rest of these prices are scatter shot, even if there is little overlap on the pitchers themselves.
What's more telling are Rotoman's and Sports Weekly's lack of $20+ bids on starting pitchers.
Rotoman's philosophy seems to be advocating either spending your dough on Santana ($45) or Halladay or letting others overpay for the second tier of pitchers. LABR is advocating buying a top-tier closer before even thinking about buying Halladay, and not getting sucked into the D-Mat or Felix hype.
The result is a chase for Santana that goes against the grain, particularly in LABR and Tout Wars. Sports Weekly recommends a $43 bid for Santana, which is unheard of for this customarily conservative publication.
Despite the fact that not one of the three starters in the Top 10 turns a profit, this group nearly breaks even.
Top 10 Bargains A.L. Pitchers 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | AVG Cost | +/- | 2006 |
| 1 | Jeremy Accardo | $32 | $0 | +32 | $0 |
| 2 | Fausto Carmona | $32 | $0 | +32 | -$7 |
| 3 | J.J. Putz | $49 | $24 | +25 | $40 |
| 4 | Rafael Betancourt | $26 | $3 | +23 | $9 |
| 5 | Bobby Jenks | $38 | $19 | +19 | $28 |
| 6 | Jon Papelbon | $37 | $19 | +18 | $44 |
| 7 | Josh Beckett | $33 | $15 | +18 | $10 |
| 8 | James Shields | $24 | $6 | +18 | $0 |
| 9 | Brian Bannister | $17 | $1 | +16 | $1 |
| 10 | Dustin McGowan | $16 | $0 | +16 | -$8 |
| Average | $30 | $9 | +21 | $12 |
Half of these bargains were available in the $1-3 crapshoot, though Bannister and McGowan weren't available in leagues that auctioned on Opening Day and could only buy major leaguers. Still, Accardo and Carmona went pretty cheaply in leagues that did buy early.
But there aren't a lot of mid-level pitchers here. Shields barely qualifies on one end, while Beckett does so on the other. Jenks, Papelbon and Putz aren't cheap as far as trolling for a bargain is concerned.
What's missing here is the $20 starter who puts up $40+ in earnings. We've seen it in years past, but in 2007 that pitcher didn't exist.
So far, we've seen a lot of relievers on these lists. Where do the starting pitchers figure?
Top 10 Busts A.L. Pitchers 2007
| Rank | Player | $ | AVG Cost | +/- | 2006 |
| 1 | B.J. Ryan | -$1 | $28 | -29 | $42 |
| 2 | Ervin Santana | -$9 | $15 | -24 | $19 |
| 3 | Jose Contreras | -$9 | $12 | -21 | $14 |
| 4 | Edwin Jackson | -$19 | $1 | -20 | -$7 |
| 5 | Jeremy Sowers | -$9 | $10 | -19 | $12 |
| 6 | Kevin Millwood | -$7 | $11 | -18 | $14 |
| 7 | Daniel Cabrera | -$10 | $8 | -18 | -$2 |
| 8 | Kei Igawa | -$9 | $9 | -18 | |
| 9 | Jeremy Bonderman | $3 | $21 | -18 | $16 |
| 10 | Mike Mussina | $0 | $17 | -17 | $27 |
| Average | -$7 | $13 | -20 | $14 |
Ah.
Only B.J. Ryan's truncated season keeps this list from being a list of nothing but starting pitchers. If you continued on down the list, you'd have to wait until pitcher #19, Brian Stokes, to see another reliever.
The worst thing about these guys is that they aren't the pitchers we grab in the crapshoot. Edwin Jackson aside, these are arms we fought over before the season started.
Once the season did start, we had a hard time letting these guys go. If you paid $21 for Jeremy Bonderman, you probably endured his 5.31 ERA in July and suffered through his 6.05 ERA in August. When you pay double digits for a pitcher, you're likely to give him the benefit of the doubt; the free agent pickings, as always, give you pause before you jettison a pitcher.
The lack of consensus at the top of the pile doesn't change the fact that teams are going to spend money on pitching. The question is where they'll spend that money, not how.
After Johan Santana, there were disagreements about how that money would be spent. But there were few arguments about allocating somewhere in the neighborhood of $900-1,000 on arms across leagues and bid limits.
The conundrum lies with what to do in 2008. We know, once again, that there will be busts. But we also know that the A.L. produced a number of solid performances in 2007. Will this quantity of $20+ pitchers hold? Or will there be some regression?
Of course there will be regression. But where?
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