Top 10 Salaries, A.L. Hitters
| Rank | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | 2007 |
| 1 | Alex Rodriguez | $38 | $47 | -9 | $42 | $43 | $53 |
| 2 | Miguel Cabrera | $33 | $42 | -9 | $33 | $36 | $34 |
| 3 | Carl Crawford | $21 | $41 | -19 | $40 | $37 | $40 |
| 4 | Grady Sizemore | $40 | $35 | +4 | $32 | $29 | $31 |
| 5 | Ichiro Suzuki | $35 | $34 | +1 | $35 | $30 | $40 |
| 6 | David Ortiz | $19 | $34 | -15 | $31 | $31 | $36 |
| 7 (tie) | Vladimir Guerrero | $28 | $33 | -4 | $32 | $32 | $32 |
| B.J. Upton | $31 | $33 | -1 | $34 | $37 | $30 | |
| 9 | Alex Rios | $33 | $31 | +2 | $28 | $29 | $29 |
| 10 | Nick Markakis | $28 | $30 | -1 | $30 | $31 | $32 |
| Average | $31 | $36 | -5 | $34 | $34 | $36 |
But that's only because the marketplace gave them a $3 raise per player. In terms of what these players earned, they didn't budge.
In terms of what this group earned the year before, these players were better than their 2007 counterparts, averaging $36 in 2007 compared to the $34 per player the 2007 most expensive put up in 2006. Despite all of the advice we're given to the contrary every year, the marketplace is reactive.
And the biggest reactions come at the top of the heap. A-Rod is paid $47 not because he's a lock to put up his 2007 season again, but because he might and he can. Cabrera is chased to that point for the same reason.
That's the market, though. The touts (Alex Patton of Patton and Company.com and Sports Weekly both wimp out.
Relatively speaking. Since spending $34 on a player most definitely is not wimping out. And, in terms of an overall prediction, both the touts come closer to predicting what these players will earn than the market.
Nevertheless, this is still a good place to put your money.
Were A-Rod owners unhappy? Probably. But I doubt they were miserable. The same could be said for Cabrera owners. These guys put up stats. Upton and Markakis owners definitely weren't miserable. Taking a $1 loss on a $30+ player means that you still got some pretty nice numbers.
One thing to note, though, is that even if the 10 most expensive players had matched the earnings of the 10 actual best players they still would have taken a loss.
Top 10 Earnings, A.L. Hitters
| Rank | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | 2007 |
| 1 | Grady Sizemore | $40 | $35 | +4 | $32 | $29 | $31 |
| 2 | Alex Rodriguez | $38 | $47 | -9 | $42 | $43 | $53 |
| 3 | Josh Hamilton | $38 | $20 | +17 | $25 | $14 | $15 |
| 4 | Dustin Pedroia | $36 | $16 | +20 | $11 | $16 | $18 |
| 5 | Ichiro Suzuki | $35 | $34 | +1 | $35 | $30 | $40 |
| 6 | Ian Kinsler | $34 | $26 | +9 | $18 | $24 | $22 |
| 7 | Bobby Abreu | $34 | $29 | +4 | $27 | $29 | $28 |
| 8 | Alex Rios | $33 | $31 | +2 | $28 | $29 | $29 |
| 9 | Miguel Cabrera | $33 | $42 | -9 | $33 | $36 | $34 |
| 10 | Johnny Damon | $33 | $19 | +14 | $20 | $22 | $22 |
| Average | $35 | $30 | +6 | $27 | $27 | $29 |
Only a $1 loss. But still a loss.
The average salary of the 10 best players ($30) and the 10 most expensive ($35) is pretty darn close. A large part of that is that there were five players (Sizemore, A-Rod, Ichiro, Rios, and Cabrera) on both lists, with a sixth player (Abreu) barely missing both lists (he came in a four way tie for 11th). In other words, the market might be spending a little too much on the best players, but they're doing a great job of identifying who these players will be.
Or the best players are incredibly predictable.
The problem is that the best players aren't as good as they were in 2007 ($35 average earnings vs. $38 in 2007) yet they're getting paid more. Once again, though, these players were better the previous year ($29 average earnings in 2007) than they were in 2007 ($26 per player average earnings in 2006).
In a three-way battle between Patton, SW, and the tout leagues, Patton buys Ichiro and Hamilton, SW gets Damon, and a share of Pedroia and Abreu, while the market gets everyone else. This conservatism on prices for Patton and SW will sting unless they buy some players in the next group.
Top 10 Profits, A.L. Hitters
| Rank | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | 2007 |
| 1 | Carlos Quentin | $31 | $6 | +25 | $5 | $7 | $2 |
| 2 | Alexei Ramirez | $26 | $4 | +21 | $11 | $1 | |
| 3 | Aubrey Huff | $32 | $13 | +20 | $14 | $10 | $14 |
| 4 | Dustin Pedroia | $36 | $16 | +20 | $11 | $16 | $18 |
| 5 | Denard Span | $18 | $0 | +18 | R2 | ||
| 6 | Josh Hamilton | $38 | $20 | +17 | $25 | $14 | $15 |
| 7 | Jason Giambi | $21 | $4 | +17 | $12 | $6 | $7 |
| 8 | Kevin Youkilis | $32 | $17 | +15 | $15 | $15 | $18 |
| 9 | Melvin Mora | $24 | $9 | +15 | $11 | $10 | $15 |
| 10 | Milton Bradley | $26 | $11 | +15 | $12 | $10 | $13 |
| Average | $28 | $10 | +18 | $12 | $9 | $10 |
And Patton does.
He grabs Ramirez, Huff, Hamilton (again), Giambi, Mora, and Bradley. SW gets Quentin and its share of Pedroia (again). The market is left with Span, Youkilis, and its share of Pedroia.
These guys are cheaper than their 2007 counterparts, which means that they're even more of a surprise. Five of these players cost less than $10; only three cost less than $10 in the 2007 bargains list. This group is bad news for owners who like targeting grizzled vets who might bounce back. Huff, Giambi, and Mora qualify, but most of these players are young guys who came out of nowhere (Span) or young players who arrived (Hamilton, Pedroia, Youkilis).
It makes sense that these players are cheaper. Spend more on the top players, and the bargains will obviously cost less. The market simply runs out of money. You can't predict who the bargains will be in March, but you can put yourself in position to grab these bargains by avoiding the early feeding frenzy for the guys at the top.
What about players you should avoid?
Top 10 Losses, A.L. Hitters
| Rank | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | AP | SW | 2007 |
| 1 | Travis Hafner | $1 | $26 | -25 | $23 | $25 | $18 |
| 2 | Victor Martinez | $5 | $26 | -21 | $25 | $25 | $26 |
| 3 | Carl Crawford | $21 | $41 | -19 | $40 | $37 | $40 |
| 4 | Jorge Posada | $4 | $19 | -15 | $17 | $18 | $27 |
| 5 | David Ortiz | $19 | $34 | -15 | $31 | $31 | $36 |
| 6 | Aaron Hill | $4 | $18 | -14 | $17 | $13 | $19 |
| 7 | Carlos Guillen | $16 | $29 | -13 | $24 | $26 | $27 |
| 8 | Nick Swisher | $11 | $24 | -13 | $16 | $20 | $16 |
| 9 | Josh Fields | -$1 | $12 | -13 | R1 | $15 | $13 |
| 10 | Paul Konerko | $12 | $25 | -13 | $23 | $21 | $18 |
| Average | $9 | $25 | -16 | $22 | $23 | $24 |
This is always an ugly list, and if you bought or froze one of the players on this list, there's a good chance you didn't win in 2008. These guys were even more expensive than their 2007 counterparts. They earned a little more, but that doesn't do anything to take the sting away from these players.
Once again Patton shines, avoiding every single one of these players. SW only gets Fields.
The market gets every other one of these guys.
So kudos to Patton on making better calls on the bargains AND on the busts. The market can't help itself in giving raises to guys like Konerko, Swisher, Hafner and Guillen. In scanning this list, I notice that the number of slow footed power hitters on here leaps off of the page. Crawford is the only speed guy to be seen.
Last year I concluded with this:
That's Stage Three for you. The prices are what they are. I'm nodding my head, not shaking it, when I look at this chart. The busts are evident now, but most of these prices made sense back in March or April.This year I'm not so sure. It seems like the market is getting to the point where it's starting to spend its money to liberally at the beginning. I keep wondering if we're seeing some kind of return to Stage One. I don't have an answer for that yet (I suspect we aren't), but there definitely were some Stage One tendencies exhibited by the experts in 2008.
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