Writing about - and analyzing - relief pitcher pricing in Rotisserie is a near-futile exercise.
I've commented before on how reactionary the market is to what happened to previous season. When it comes to relief pitchers, the market is arguably even more reactionary than it is at any other position.
Ten Most Expensive A.L. Relievers 2010
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | PK | CBS | '09 |
| 1 | Mariano Rivera | $20 | $24 | -4 | $27 | $19 | $27 |
| 2 | Jon Papelbon | $17 | $23 | -6 | $26 | $20 | $19 |
| 3 | Joakim Soria | $22 | $21 | +1 | $23 | $16 | $22 |
| 4 | Andrew Bailey | $15 | $19 | -4 | $19 | $16 | $27 |
| 5 | Jose Valverde | $14 | $19 | -5 | $21 | | $16 |
| 6 | Rafael Soriano | $25 | $19 | +6 | $16 | $14 | $18 |
| 7 | David Aardsma | $12 | $17 | -4 | $14 | $16 | $22 |
| 8 | Brian Fuentes | $14 | $16 | -2 | $15 | $17 | $17 |
| 9 | Bobby Jenks | $9 | $15 | -6 | $14 | $15 | $14 |
| 10 | Frank Francisco | $7 | $15 | -8 | $14 | $15 | $14 |
| | Average | $16 | $19 | -3 | $19 | $15 | $20 |
In 2009, the market went nuts for Papelbon, Joe Nathan, Soria and Rivera. Since Papelbon and Soria were (relatively) disappointing, the market scales back not just on the top closers, but on everyone else.
That's one way to look at it. The second way to look at it is that the market is finally self-correcting and recognizing that closers in 5x5 simply aren't that good.
A.L. closers in 5x5 were paid $21 for the 10 anticipated best in 2008; they earned $19 in 5x5 that year (the chart in the linked article was using 4x4). In 2009, the market rewarded that relatively robust performance with a $22 average salary, and they responded by only earning $15 per pitcher. Last year, the market dropped its price but still couldn't quite cut their pay enough.
What is problematic about analyzing pricing versus earnings is that owners are far less likely to budget their money based on potential earnings/profit. Owners tend to do one of three things:
1. Decide that they want one or two closers no matter what the price.
2. Decide that they'll pay what they think is the "correct value" for one or two closers.
3. Throw the category overboard.
Since there is no hard and fast rule governing how many owners will fall into each category, every auction is different - even from reliever to reliever.
Ten Most Expensive A.L. Relievers 2010 - by league price
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | CBS | LABR | TW |
| 1 | Mariano Rivera | $20 | $24 | -4 | $22 | $27 | $24 |
| 2 | Jon Papelbon | $17 | $23 | -6 | $23 | $21 | $25 |
| 3 | Joakim Soria | $22 | $21 | +1 | $22 | $20 | $20 |
| 4 | Andrew Bailey | $15 | $19 | -4 | $22 | $19 | $17 |
| 5 | Jose Valverde | $14 | $19 | -5 | $21 | $16 | $20 |
| 6 | Rafael Soriano | $25 | $19 | +6 | $18 | $19 | $20 |
| 7 | David Aardsma | $12 | $17 | -4 | $19 | $15 | $16 |
| 8 | Brian Fuentes | $14 | $16 | -2 | $16 | $14 | $19 |
| 9 | Bobby Jenks | $9 | $15 | -6 | $13 | $16 | $16 |
| 10 | Frank Francisco | $7 | $15 | -8 | $15 | $12 | $17 |
| | Average | $16 | $19 | -3 | $19 | $18 | $19 |
This is a re-run of the first chart with the three expert league prices I use for the Sal column above. There is some consistency here, but there is also a lot of fluctuation with some pitchers. To my point above, I don't think the expert leagues are making a statement based on what these players are worth. LABR isn't making a statement on Mariano; Larry Schechter bought him early and - by his own admission - wishes he had paid less. I'm also guessing that Lawr Michaels in Tout didn't think $19 was a great price for Fuentes, but needed a closer at that point in time.
I can't be certain, but I think that the experts are spending money on one closer and then speculating on a second pitcher.
Next Ten (11-20) Most Expensive A.L. Relievers 2010
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | PK | CBS | '09 |
| 11 | Michael Gonzalez | $2 | $14 | -11 | $15 | $14 | $15 |
| 12 | Joe Nathan | | $13 | -13 | | $19 | $28 |
| 13 | Kerry Wood | $6 | $12 | -6 | $9 | $12 | $11 |
| 14 | Neftali Feliz | $23 | $9 | +14 | $5 | $11 | $9 |
| 15 | Jason Frasor | $5 | $7 | -2 | $7 | $13 | $16 |
| 16 | Kevin Gregg | $14 | $7 | +7 | $5 | | $11 |
| 17 | Joba Chamberlain | $5 | $6 | -1 | $1 | $12 | $7 |
| 18 | Matt Thornton | $13 | $6 | +8 | $3 | $11 | $16 |
| 19 | Chris Perez | $16 | $5 | -11 | $8 | $6 | $4 |
| 20 | Jon Rauch | $11 | $4 | +6 | $9 | $7 | $8 |
| | Average | $10 | $8 | +1 | $6 | $11 | $13 |
This type of analysis is even more challenging when you consider that nearly two months separates the CBS expert auction and the Tout Wars auction. However, outside of Nathan, the prices here actually are more uniform at times. All three-tout leagues paid $9 for Feliz. The assumption was that Francisco was the closer but that Feliz was a strong closer-in-waiting...and would put up pretty strong statistics even if he didn't get saves. Gregg's three expert league prices were $6, $8, and $7. There wasn't much fluctuation in price even though there was definitely a shift in opinion of Gregg's role as the spring went along.
Notice that most of the pitchers above aren't middle relief plays. Thornton is the significant exception to the rule. These pitchers are either closers or potential closers; owners simply aren't going to spend money on set up men...and this trend is even more significant than it has been in years past.
Next Ten (21-30) Most Expensive A.L. Relievers 2010
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | PK | CBS | '09 |
| 21 | Fernando Rodney | $5 | $4 | +1 | $3 | $2 | $9 |
| 22 | Brandon League | $11 | $3 | +8 | $2 | $5 | $5 |
| 23 | Daniel Bard | $12 | $3 | +9 | $3 | $1 | $9 |
| 24 | Scott Downs | $10 | $3 | +7 | $3 | $1 | $7 |
| 25 | J.P. Howell | | $3 | -3 | $2 | $3 | $11 |
| 26 | Michael Wuertz | $3 | $3 | +1 | $1 | $3 | $11 |
| 27 | David Robertson | $4 | $2 | +2 | $1 | $1 | $3 |
| 28 | Alfredo Aceves | $3 | $2 | +1 | $3 | | $10 |
| 29 | Kevin Jepsen | $3 | $1 | +1 | | $2 | $1 |
| 30 | J.J. Putz | $11 | $1 | +10 | $3 | $2 | $8 |
| | Average | $6 | $2 | +4 | $2 | $2 | $7 |
I'm of the mindset that middle relievers are one of the last areas where you can derive any kind of competitive advantage in 5x5, one-league format leagues, and the chart above seems to back this up.
These 10 pitchers saved a combined 34 games, with 14 of those saves coming from Rodney. Those 34 saves were worth $9.31 last year. So 14.9% of the pitchers' earnings above came from saves. The rest came from the other four pitching categories. On average, these 10 pitchers earned more than the 41-50th most expensive pitchers in this chart:
Next Ten (41-50) Most Expensive A.L. Starting Pitchers 2010
| # | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | PK | CBS | '09 |
| 41 | Joe Saunders | $1 | $5 | -4 | $5 | $11 | $11 |
| 42 | Chris Tillman | -$2 | $5 | -7 | R1 | $10 | -$0 |
| 43 | Ryan Rowland-Smith | -$11 | $5 | -16 | $9 | $9 | $10 |
| 44 | Gil Meche | -$4 | $4 | -8 | $8 | $7 | $2 |
| 45 | Ricky Romero | $17 | $4 | +13 | $1 | $10 | $11 |
| 46 | Mark Rzepczynski | $0 | $4 | -4 | $5 | $5 | $6 |
| 47 | Brandon Morrow | $10 | $3 | +6 | $3 | $10 | $4 |
| 48 | Dallas Braden | $17 | $3 | +13 | $3 | $5 | $10 |
| 49 | Nick Blackburn | -$1 | $3 | -4 | $8 | $9 | $13 |
| 50 | Colby Lewis | $19 | $3 | +16 | $2 | | |
| | Average | $4 | $4 | 0 | $4 | $8 | $7 |
So which set of these pitchers do you prefer? The 21-30 relievers or the 41-50 starters?
It looks like you are going to make more money with the best starters but will achieve more consistent results with the relievers.
The fact that four out of 10 of the 21-30 relievers cracked the $10 earnings barrier isn't small potatoes. Sixty pitchers earned 10 or more in the American League in 2010.
At the very least, it is just as worthwhile to spend $1-2 on an endgame reliever than it is to spend $3-4 on a starter to fill out the back end of your rotation.
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