If you didn't buy a $20 pitcher with one of the big bids placed last spring, your last chance to do so almost definitely came here.
Next Ten (11-20) Most Expensive N.L. Starting Pitchers 2010
# | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | PK | CBS | '09 |
11 | Yovani Gallardo | $15 | $21 | -6 | $20 | $20 | $19 |
12 | Clayton Kershaw | $24 | $21 | +4 | $20 | $17 | $21 |
13 | Matt Cain | $25 | $20 | +5 | $26 | $21 | $26 |
14 | Ubaldo Jimenez | $29 | $20 | +9 | $14 | $19 | $24 |
15 | Wandy Rodriguez | $15 | $19 | -3 | $18 | $19 | $25 |
16 | Chad Billingsley | $16 | $17 | -2 | $16 | $18 | $16 |
17 | Jair Jurrjens | $4 | $17 | -13 | $20 | $17 | $26 |
18 | Roy Oswalt | $29 | $16 | +13 | $17 | $17 | $13 |
19 | Ryan Dempster | $17 | $15 | +2 | $16 | $16 | $17 |
20 | Brandon Webb | $14 | -3 | $8 | $16 | -$1 | |
Average | $17 | $18 | -1 | $18 | $18 | $19 |
Sixteen National League starting pitchers cracked the $20 earnings barrier in 2010. Of those 16 pitchers, 12 of them cost $16 or more and were among the 18 most expensive pitchers.
While it sounds like I'm throwing a lot of random numbers your way, this clump of pitchers at the top of the food chain was definitely bad news for owners who don't like to spend top dollar on a top dog. Conversely, it was almost always great news for owners who do. If you spent $16 or more for a starting pitcher in 2010, you had almost 9-in-10 chance (89% to be exact) of getting back at least $10 on your investment. While the return on all of these investments isn't equal, it certainly made the big splash pay off far more than I've ever seen.
Meanwhile, though, the 11-20 grouping nearly breaks even, something it didn't do in 2009 or 2008. Take out the $20, CBS league pre-injury bid for Webb ($20) and this group does break even.
The prices for these pitchers are an exercise in Stage Three wisdom. No one expects any breakouts and - thanks to Jimenez's late swoon - no one really does breakout. Oswalt's a bit of a surprise, but $16 isn't a small amount to pay for a pitcher. The market, Rotoman and CBS' pricing system all think these pitchers are going to be a little worse than they were in 2009, and they're almost dead on in that assessment.
Since the most expensive pitchers lost money and the 11-20 bracket lost money, you'd start expecting to see profits. And you'd be correct.
Next Ten (21-30) Most Expensive N.L. Starting Pitchers 2010
# | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | PK | CBS | '09 |
21 | Carlos Zambrano | $10 | $13 | -3 | $12 | $16 | $12 |
22 | Jonathan Sanchez | $21 | $13 | +9 | $9 | $10 | $11 |
23 | Ted Lilly | $20 | $13 | +7 | $22 | $13 | $25 |
24 | Tim Hudson | $25 | $11 | +14 | $9 | $14 | $2 |
25 | Randy Wolf | $9 | $11 | -2 | $10 | $15 | $24 |
26 | Edwin Jackson | -$1 | $11 | -11 | $10 | $15 | $23 |
27 | Jorge de la Rosa | $8 | $11 | -3 | $6 | $11 | $15 |
28 | J.A. Happ | $6 | $10 | -4 | $8 | $12 | $19 |
29 | Stephen Strasburg | $11 | $10 | +1 | R1 | $11 | |
30 | Hiroki Kuroda | $19 | $10 | +9 | $11 | $13 | $13 |
Average | $11 | $10 | +1 | $10 | $13 | $14 |
The market had to really squeeze its pennies, relatively speaking, in order to make sure that these pitchers did turn a profit. It spent $12 per pitcher for these guys in '09 and $13 in '08.
Rotoman is telling you to lay off of these guys even more than the market is; he only beats them on Lilly and Kuroda. CBS, on the other hand, is excited about these guys, beating or tying Rotoman and the market on everyone but Lilly and Sanchez. The CBS pricing model for pitchers is just as robust as the ZIPS model was for hitters once we reach the mushy middle. If everyone is going to get 150 IP or 400 AB at a minimum, then logically no one is going to fail...at least not too much.
The market might seem conservative in the next group, but in reality they match what they did in 2009 in terms of price.
Next Ten (31-40) Most Expensive N.L. Starting Pitchers 2010
# | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | PK | CBS | '09 |
31 | Joe Blanton | $4 | $10 | -6 | $5 | $13 | $15 |
32 | Johnny Cueto | $14 | $9 | +5 | $8 | $11 | $10 |
33 | Aaron Harang | -$2 | $9 | -11 | $6 | $10 | $7 |
34 | Derek Lowe | $12 | $9 | +3 | $8 | $13 | $5 |
35 | Mat Latos | $25 | $8 | +17 | $8 | $10 | $3 |
36 | Randy Wells | $6 | $7 | -1 | $7 | $10 | $17 |
37 | Brett Myers | $21 | $6 | +14 | $5 | $11 | $3 |
38 | Homer Bailey | $4 | $6 | -2 | $8 | $11 | $5 |
39 | Kevin Correia | $1 | $6 | -5 | $8 | $4 | $15 |
40 | Ian Kennedy | $15 | $6 | +9 | $3 | $4 | $0 |
Average | $10 | $8 | +2 | $7 | $10 | $8 |
And, for the second year in a row, they turn a profit here.
It's an interesting proposition. In leagues that spend $85 per pitcher, $9.44 is the average price per pitcher. These pitchers cost a little bit less than average and earn a little bit more. Without the benefit of hindsight, though, the market seems relatively excited about these guys. They pay them what they earned in 2009...something they didn't do for any of the pitchers that preceded them.
Looking more closely, I see the problem I always see with these types of pitchers. Half of them turn a profit, half of them lose money. That's fine if you spend $15 on a pitcher and get $10 back, problematic if you spend $6 on a pitcher and get back $1. As I said in my last post, hoping for Hudson and Latos is great, but if you got Correia and Bailey (like Rotoman would have), that wouldn't have been so good.
Next Ten (41-50) Most Expensive N.L. Starting Pitchers 2010
# | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | PK | CBS | '09 |
41 | Barry Zito | $9 | $6 | +3 | $3 | $8 | $12 |
42 | Clayton Richard | $12 | $6 | +6 | $4 | $4 | $4 |
43 | Kenshin Kawakami | -$2 | $5 | -8 | $6 | $6 | $9 |
44 | Bronson Arroyo | $19 | $5 | +14 | $9 | $10 | $17 |
45 | John Maine | -$3 | $5 | -8 | $7 | $11 | $6 |
46 | Brad Penny | $4 | $4 | -1 | $3 | $11 | $7 |
47 | Chris Young | $4 | $4 | -1 | $7 | $6 | $1 |
48 | Jason Hammel | $5 | $4 | 0 | $1 | $4 | $9 |
49 | Anibal Sanchez | $14 | $4 | +10 | $7 | $4 | |
50 | Kyle Lohse | -$9 | $4 | -13 | $6 | $4 | |
Average | $5 | $5 | 0 | $4 | $7 | $7 |
In terms of profitability, these guys are OK as a group. However, six pitchers here lose money or break even...not what you want when you throw $5 down. You're hoping for Zito at worst.
CBS just keeps plugging along here. No prediction model is going to predict a ($9) season, so guys like Lohse are ultimately going to be "overpaid." Rotoman might look foolish to not put a bid on Sanchez at all, but I'd rather avoid both Sanchez and Lohse than have both, if that makes any sense.
I can't blame the market for spending the $5 per pitcher. It is what the market spent in 2009 and $1 less than what it spent in 2008. There's only so low you can go, and in terms of earnings this group is still better than the guys sitting near the bottom.
Next Ten (51-60) Most Expensive N.L. Starting Pitchers 2009
# | Player | $ | Sal | +/- | PK | CBS | '09 |
51 | Madison Bumgarner | $10 | $4 | +6 | R2 | $10 | $1 |
52 | Chris Volstad | $5 | $4 | +1 | $8 | $6 | $3 |
53 | Paul Maholm | -$3 | $4 | -7 | $6 | $4 | $5 |
54 | Bud Norris | $4 | $3 | 0 | $3 | $6 | $4 |
55 | Jeff Francis | $1 | $3 | -2 | $5 | $4 | |
56 | Jon Garland | $15 | $3 | +11 | $5 | $6 | $9 |
57 | Kris Medlen | $9 | $3 | +6 | $1 | $3 | $4 |
58 | Rick VandenHurk | -$0 | $3 | -3 | R3 | -$2 | $4 |
59 | Vicente Padilla | $9 | $3 | +6 | $2 | $2 | $10 |
60 | Oliver Perez | -$8 | $3 | -10 | $5 | $6 | -$6 |
Average | $4 | $3 | +1 | $4 | $5 | $4 |
There's a little more money spent here in '10 than in '09 or '08; I suspect this has something to do with closers getting pinched even more last year than they have in the past. But here we have another break-even group of pitchers who for the most part don't provide much help.
The upside here is that if you bought Garland for $15 it would take either Ollie Perez or two separate pitchers to kill your profit. The downside is that it seems to prove what I've always said: you can't simply buy pitchers in the crapshoot and hope for the best.
I go back to what I said near the beginning. Sixteen National League starting pitchers cracked the $20 earnings barrier in 2010. Of those 16 pitchers, 12 of them cost $16 or more and were among the 18 most expensive pitchers.
You need stats, not just profits. You might get profits in one of these cheaper groups. You will get stats if you spend big toward the top of the spectrum.
2 comments:
Hi M&M boys, Happy New Year to you both and your families.
Have an early question, Mike. It relates to this post. AL 5x5 keeper league, my SPs are Danks $12, Clay Buchholz $20 and Brett Anderson $20(or $15 depending on how long want to keep them), Braden $8 and Pineiro $3. Pretty good, right?
My good buddy and constant source of creative ideas thinks I should try and deal Anderson for someone like Sabathia at $32. I dont really agree but curious about your thoughts. Thanks so much.
I missed this, Gypsy, but I'll try to address this tonight.
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